50%铜关税宣布：贸易流向与政策目标

Liam FitzpatrickResearch Analyst+44-20-754-13233Bastian SynagowitzResearch Analyst+41-44-227-3377 10July2025Metals & MiningGlobal Coppercompanies that have viable projects are likely to seek additional incentives (grants,tax breaks, fiscal stability), given the uncertainty on tariff levels over the mediumterm.Company exposure: FCX (BUY) has upside exposure to US tariffsA number of companies have copper projects in the US, including FCX (Bagdad),RlOandBHP(Resolution),ANTO (TwinMetals)andIVN (SantaCruz),thatcouldbefast-tracked under the current administration. We upgraded FCX to BUY earlier thisif US tariffs are introduced on allimports of primary copper.As detailed in our recentreport (link), US domestic production (Fig 3) makes up a third of consolidatedcopper production or 45% of attributable production. Our base-case estimatescurrently assume a 10% tariff over the next four years, adding ~$0.6bn pa to EBITDA(DB 2026 EBITDA $13.7bn, consensus $13bn); a 25% tariff would add a further$1bn pa (2026 EBITDA to $14.7bn) and a 50% tariff would add a further $1.6bn(2026 EBITDA to $16.4bn), all other things equal. The US business has substantialdeferred tax assets, meaning that it will pay very little income tax over the comingyears and the EBITDA lift should drop straight through to FCF.Page 2 91C微信 10July2025Metals &MiningGlobalCopperUS imports, COMEX spread & inventoriesFigure 1: Comex copper price premium over LME hasincreased as the market prices in possible Us tariffs2,5002,0001,5001,000500Comex copper premium/(discount) to LME,USD/tFigure 3: US copper imports weekly807060 -504030Source : Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 5: LME copper inventories35080250200150100LME copper inventories (kt)Source :Bloomberg Finance LPDeutsche Bank AG US copper imports weekly (kt)Comex copper inventory (kt) 10July2025Metals & MiningGlobalCopperInventory and high-freguency trendsFigure 7: China inventoriesChina SHFE+ bonded stocks,ktcoppercathode60050040020000uerFebMar2021Source : Deutsche Bank, WindFigure 9: Copper positioning8060Long CopperSource : Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg Finance LPFigure 11: China spot TCs have collapsed due to tightnessin the concentrate market and refined capacity expansions100502525Source : DeutPage 4 AprMayJurJulAugSepOctNov202220232024Short CopperNet CopperCopper price (Us$/t)Chinaoncentrate spot TC 24% (USD/t)berg Finance LP LA Appendix 1Important Disclosures*Other information available upon requestsubject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at https:/reseaEquityResearchDisclosures. Aside from within this report, important risk and conflict disclosures can also be found at https:/research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/Disclaimer. Investorsare strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.Deutsche Bank AG rch.db.com/Rearch/DisclosuresPage 5 10July2025Metals & MiningGlobal CopperAnalyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subjectPage 6 Deutsche Bank AG 10July2025Metals & MiningGlobal CopperEguityratingdispersionandbankingrelationshipscompanies covered Cos.w/ Banking ReEquity Rating and Dispersion KeyThe Equity Rating Dispersion Chart depicts the following:The proportion of recommendations that are rated"buy","sell" and"hold"over the previous 12 months.This is shown forsecurities issued in the stated region e.g. "Europe Universe". See rating definitions below. This is represented by the"Companies Covered" bars in the chart. The percentage value displayed above the bar is the proportion as a percentage.E.g. 50% above the "buy" / "Companies Covered" bar means that 50% of DB's equity research covered companies overthe past 12 months have a "buy" rating.Next to each of the three respective bars showing the proportion of "buy", "sell" and "hold" recommendations we providetwo additional bars to show:- The proportion of "buy","sell" or"hold recommendations where Deutsche Bank and or/Affiliates provided MIFIDInvestmentorAncillaryServices inthepast12months.Thisisrepresented inthe"MiFiDInvestmentandAncillaryServices" bar. The percentage value displayed above the bar shows the proportion of Companies Covered with the given"Cos. w/ MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services" bar means 50% of the Companies Covered with the rating stated havealso received MIFID Investment and Ancillary Services from DB.- The proportion of "buy" (or"sell" or "hold) recommendations where Deutsche Bank and or/Affiliates has providedInvestment Banking services in the past 12 months for which it has received compensation. The percentage valuedisplayed above the bar shows the proportion of Companies Covered with the stated rating where DB has also providedmeans 50% of the Companies Covered with the rating stated also have an Investment Banking Relationship with DB.Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of TSR, we recommend that investors b