欧洲多元化化学品：价差横向波动，前景疲软

9nglconsiderably in May. However, theRestricted - External European Diversified ChemicalsPOSITIVEEuropean Diversified ChemicalsAnil Shenoy+91 (0)22 6175 2487anil.shenoy@barclays.comBarclays, UKKatie Richards+44 (0)20 3555 0315kathryn.richards@barclays.comBarclays, UKAlexSloane+44 (0)20 3555 0645alexander.sloane@barclays.comBarclays, UKSetu Sharda+91 (0)22 6175 1934setu.sharda@barclays.comBarclays, UK companies.For BASF, our 2025E EBITDA is now at 7.4bn vs.the latest Vara consensus of 7.6bnandguidanceof8-8.4bn.However, the main economic indicators we follow were higher in June. Europe PMis are stable,while US PMi, IFO new orders, IFO production plans and Sentix indicator are all higher. Chinacredit stimulus for May (June data not out yet) is lower, though. For more detail on ourmethodology, see the Appendix.9eC2 Mark-to-Market (EBITDA change compared to prior month)BASF ChemicalsBASF ChemicalsBASF Materials (FY25)(FY25)+1%+0%BASF Materials (nextBASF Chemicals (next4 quarters)4 quarters)+1%+0%Economic Indicators (compared to prior month)Europe PMIUS PMIStableHigher(49.5)(49)China Creditsentix EconomicIFO Production PlansStimulus*HigherLower(-4.4)(+0.7%)Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research *April Mark-to-market analysisIn the next three sections, we calculate a monthly mark-to-market annual EBITDA forBASF's two upstream divisions (Chemicals and Materials). We also calculate quarterlymark-to-market estimates for BASF's Chemicals division. In each chart the first bluecolumn denotes the equivalent period last year: FY24, rolling last four quarters or1Q25. Each of the monthly calculations estimates the change in net pricingcompared with the previous month. For example, BASF Chemicals reported EBITDAof 1,543mn in FY24. Extrapolating January spreads over FY24 implied a net pricingimpact at the time of +111mn y/y, or an EBITDA impact of 1,654mn when isolatingactual January spreads and assuming February spreads continued throughout theyear. In February the net pricing calculation was -54mn y/y, giving an EBITDAestimate of 1,6oomn.We repeatthat exerciseeach month andthewhitecirclegivesthe approximate EBITDA marking to market for the latest spreads while keeping allothervariables constant. BASF ChemicalsOur next 12-month (2Q25-1Q26) EBITDA and FY25E m2m EBITDA are flat from last month. Thedeclines in cracker spreads in Europe (in July) and Asia (June) have been offset by improvementin intermediates like acrylic acid and ethylene in Us. However, we do not consider the decline inJuly for our m2m 2Q25E EBITDA, hence it is up +3%.FIGURE 1. Marking FY25E EBITDA to market1,7001,6001,5001,4001,3001,2001,1001,0002024Source: Company data, ICIS, Bloomberg, Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 2.Marking next-12-months EBITDA to market1,2501,2001,1501,1001,0501,0001Q25 LTMSource: Company data, ICiS,Bloomberg, Barclays Research estimates O0Jan-25Feb-255Apr-25May-255m2mMar.Apr-25May-25Jun-252Q25 NTM5 BASF MaterialsSpreads in BASF Materials are up especially in Asian MDI and TDI. Consequently, our next 12-month(2Q25-1Q26)EBITDAandFY25Em2mEBITDAarebothup+1%.FIGURE5.MarkingFY25EEBITDAtomarket2,0001,9501,9001,8501,8001,7501,7001,6501,6002024Dec-24Source: Company data, ICiS, Bloomberg, Barclays Research estimatesFIGURE 6.Marking next-12-months EBITDA to market1,8001,7501,7001,6501,6001,5501,5001Q25LTMSource: Company data, ICiS, Bloomberg, Barclays Research estimates Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-252m2m-unrApr-25May-25Jun-252Q25 NTM Summary spreadswere higher in June.2025 YTD Avg.2024 YTD Avg.acidCaprolactamMDIPolyolAcrylic aEurope (EUR/t)Our cracker margin, which is usually an early indicator for other spreads, is lower m/m in July aswe enter the seasonally weak part of the year. In the last 10 years, spreads have been strong inthe first half and thereafter weaken in the second half.AprMayJuninr+70-140-10-124+41+10-139+62+88-78-20+27+20-3-27+30+272-121+0+49+169+179-296+244-25+36-76-47+103-26-103 5-Yr Avg.Cracker marginEthylenePropyleneButadieneBenzeneacidCaprolactamMDIPolycarbonateBDOAcrylic aAsia (USS/t)AugSep10NovDec-105-59-27-119-14+54-60-175+61+84-77+158-177-67-54-146+40+55-44+190-29+60+32104-57-8122.-271-187-41-23-238-120-2788-+81-164+5-83+15+1966-+86 Source: ICIS, Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 9. European cracker margins (change month-on-month)JanFebMar2017+128+195+982018+40+3266+2019+4+71-452020+3+3+112021+61-72+1072022+277-108+112023+138+59-52024+199+102+742025-41-49+1Source: ICIS, Barclays Research10July2025 10 AppendixSimilar to other commodity businesses, earnings for petrochemical producers are driven largelyby the margin over cost of materials - or, the spread. Unlike other commodity businesses, theseproduct prices are not widely available, neither are the material costs. Collecting data on 22different petrochemicals, we calculate a cash spread each month by comparing the productprice to its main raw material. The analysis is not perfect for several reasons. Chemicalproducers can choose to hold more or less raw m