对欧洲化学品行动计划的思考：急救而非根治

The European Commission (EC) published a European Chemicals Action Plan on July 8th(seelink)settingoutaplantoestablishmoreconcretesupportfortheEuropeanChemicalsindustry over the next 18+ months. In this report we dive deep into the documents.Small positive for the sector, but not momentous. To us, the European ChemicalsAction Plan reads somewhat like a plan to make a plan. There are few imminent supportindustry. There are tangible measures which will likely benefit European Chemicals from2026. However, we worry that the measures do not fully address the root causes ofEurope's issues and could be described as patching up a boxer already down a few rounds.The good: support for electricity prices, more anti-dumping protection, lessregulation, help for critical sites, molecules and materials. Under the proposals,State Aid compensation for electricity price rises caused via European carbon taxes willbe applicable to more chemicals from 2026. Although the exact molecules are still to bedetermined, our preliminary analysis indicates the European-listed industrial companiescould see abSD percentage of cost improvements as a percentage of 2026 EBITDA, withLanxess and Wacker (neither covered) benefiting more because we estimate a considerablepercenfage of their production uses European electricity. Elsewhere, less red tape savesEcosts across the board, and we believe BASF (Ludwigshafen and Antwerp) is a logicalrecipient of critical site aid, whilst Syensqo's Materials division (60% group sales) is wellSpositioned for critical molecules and materials help.Despite all this, competitiveness challenges are not going away. Tax relief andlower regulatory costs are welcome, but a competitiveness gap remains. Fewer taxes donot mean cheaper underlying energy costs, and grid improvements will take years. Gascompetitivenessisbarelyaddressedbytheplan.Wealsoworrythat Europemayalsobeunderestimatingthecompetitivenessofotherregions,suchasMiddleEasternexpansionplans or China's drive to lower energy costs; the opponents are not standing still.We continue to prefer the industrial gases... The industrial gas stocks are beneficiariesof these regulatory trends but minimise the possible cyclical downside. Support forheavy industry should promote on-site stability, and the EC's ongoing promotion ofdecarbonisation efforts across hydrogen (both green and blue), Carbon Capture & Storageetc. should help assuage recent fears about growth in energy storage.... but we would supplement our portfolio with some industrial exposure. In theshort-term, we expect guidance cuts and cyclical challenges. In the medium-term, howeverbelieve that there are some stories which can create value independent of the cycle. BASFis our preference, given the strategy (see report BASF: Because I got to have faith). We alsoof two halves). And if the cycle and regulatory environment gets better, we think returnscould be stellar.www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEINTICKERTABLETickerRatingAl.FP0APD0AKZA.NA0AKE.FPUBAS.GR0CLN.SWMLIN.UW0PPG0SOLB.BB0SYENS.BB0EUREDMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedAKZA.NA, PPG base year is 2023;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates andanalysis.INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONSit does not address several of the key issues causing European upstream chemicals uncompetitiveness. We would thereforecontinue to form the core of our portfolio with the Industrial Gas companies, with Linde and Air Liquide preferred. We also seethe diversified coatings majors (PPG and Akzo Nobel) as resilient and undervalued, albeit this Action Plan probably has limitedimpact on them. Industrial Chemicals is our least favourite subsector, given the difficult cyclical dynamic. However, we wouldretain some exposure because the cycle can change quickly, and we see asymmetric return profiles. We prefer BASF, given webelieve their strategy can create value without cyclical recovery (see report BASF: Because I got to have faith), and Syensqo,because we believe the issues with the high-quality Materials business are transient (see report Syensqo: A game of two halves).We rate Air Liquide, Air Products, Akzo Nobe, BAsF, Linde, PPG, Solvay and Syensqo Outperform. We rate Clariant Market-Perform.We rate Arkema UnderperformSEUROPEAN CHEMICALS C 6eBERNSTEIN|SOCIETE CENERALE CROUP2 DETAILSANALYSING THE EC'S EUROPEAN CHEMICALS ACTION PLANWe summarise the key aims and actions of the EC's plan in normal text and provide some commentary and analysis in blue italics.Aim 1) Strengthening resilience: As a reaction to capacity reductions in the "primary building blocks", i.e. upstream chemicals such as petrochemicals,ammonia and chlorine, the Critical Chemicals Alliance (CCA) will be createdThe CCA will act as a strategic umbrella that enables cooperation with Member States and stakeholders, so that the risks ofproduction capacity closures in the sector can be mapped and addressed. It will develop criteria to identify chemical sitesand mol