imf-长期弹性和增长的宏观经济框架

A MacroeconomicFramework for Long-TermResilience and Growth David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros,Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki, and Christine Richmond WP/25/135 IMF Working Papersdescribe research inprogress by the author(s) and are published toelicit comments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers arethose of the author(s) and do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board,or IMF management. 2025JUL IMF Working PaperFiscal Affairs Department A Macroeconomic Framework for Long-Term Resilience and GrowthPrepared by David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros, Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki,Christine Richmond* Authorized for distribution by Dora BenedekJuly2025 IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of theauthor(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT:This paper describes a macroeconomic framework integrating disasters in the analysis of growthand long-term economic resilience. The framework is a dynamic growth model incorporating endogenoushuman and physical capital accumulation, fiscal policy interventions, and public debt dynamics. The modelallows for flexible analyses of slow and fast onset climate impacts and fiscal policy reforms to foster sustainablelong-term growth and adaptation, including enhanced spending on resilient investment and non-structuraladaptation options. Focusing on adaptation policies, specifically on investing in resilient infrastructure, wepresent the country cases of Benin and Jamaica, examining tradeoffs and synergies in macro-fiscal policies foraddressing sustainable long-term growth and the impacts of disasters.* A Macroeconomic Framework forLong-Term Resilience and Growth Prepared by David Bartolini, Andrew Ceber, Valerie Cerra, Pedro Juarros,Yujin Kim, Junko Mochizuki, and Christine Richmond* Contents Introduction............................................................................................................................................ 3 A.Socio-Economic Impacts .................................................................................................................... 5B.Adaptation Policy ................................................................................................................................ 6 A.Model Overview .................................................................................................................................. 7B.Model Specification............................................................................................................................. 9 IV.Calibration............................................................................................................................................ 14 V.Country Applications .......................................................................................................................... 15 A.Benin................................................................................................................................................. 15B.Jamaica............................................................................................................................................. 23 VI.Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 30 Annex I. Data Sources for Calibration............................................................................................................. 32 Annex II. Additional Studies on Specific Countries and Sectors ................................................................. 34 Annex III. Tradeoff Between Costs and Benefits of Disaster Risk Reduction Investment......................... 38 References ......................................................................................................................................................... 39 FIGURES 1. SDG-C Model Structure ....................................................................................................................................72. Historical and Simulated Annual Average Temperature (ºC) ..........................................................................153. Average Annual Precipitation Change Relative to 1985-2014 (percentage)...................................................174. Real GDP growth and Infrastructure: Adaptation Policy Scenario (Benin) .....................................................205. Public Debt, Reconstruction Costs, and Fiscal Balance: Adaptation Policy Scenario (Benin)........................216. Additional SDG Spending Needs from Adaptation Policies (Benin)................................................................237. Average Annual Temperature Change R