2025年展望报告

Empowering Investor Success Welcome to Our 2025 Outlook Table of Contents Our Best Investing Ideas Whenthe US Looks Expensive 10 CHAPTER 2 How to Build a Portfolioto Reach Your Goals 13 CHAPTER 3 Finding Returns in aFalling Rate Environment 19 CHAPTER 4 The Pros and Cons ofInvesting in Private Assets 22 CHAPTER 5 The Impact of AIon Investing in 2025 25 CHAPTER 6 How to Build a PortfolioThat Looks After You CHAPTER 7 Hunting for Value in anExpensive US Stock Market Welcome to Our 2025 Outlook As we look to next year, it is already clearthat investing conditions in 2025 will be verydifferent from 2024. Inflation has diminished,many central banks are loosening the reinson the economy, and formerly unloved assetshave made a roaring comeback. Yet, some things remain the same: There are many attractive opportunities forinvestors, artificial intelligence continues to dominate the spending of technologycompanies, and investors still favor cash deposits over longer-term assets. Some conditions are timeless, such as the volatility of asset prices, the needfor investors to lift their eyes to the horizon instead of focusing on the latestheadline, and the importance of creating portfolios that meet your needs as aninvestor rather than simply chasing the highest returns. As in previous years, this outlook is designed to help you succeed by bringingtogether the research and insights from analysts and investors across Morningstarto help you make better investment decisions in the year ahead. We’ve divided the document into seven sections, each of which addressesa key challenge or opportunity faced by investors as we enter the new year. Following the stellar rise in US stock prices in 2024, many large US companystocks appear to be expensive and consequently are offering lower futurereturns. We highlight some better value opportunities for those making newinvestments or wanting to reduce their exposure to the US market. 1Our Best InvestingIdeas When theUS Looks Expensive Investing is fundamentally an exchange of spending power today forthe attainment of a goal in the future. Building a portfolio to meet thesegoals requires a long-term perspective, a commitment to deep research,and a willingness to think (and act) independently. We share some thoughtson how to build a successful portfolio that meets these future needs. 2How to Build a Portfolioto Reach Your Goals As many central banks have started to cut interest rates, cash depositslook less attractive. We look at the alternative options. Private assets have risen to prominence over the past few years as morefast-growing companies are staying in private hands and others areseeking loans from nontraditional sources. We highlight the opportunitiesand challenges of investing in these popular assets. As artificial intelligence continues to dominate the minds of investors,the opportunities are shifting. We look at where the best investmentsreside as we enter the new year. 5The Impact of AI onInvesting in 2025 While distilling our entire outlook into a few key takeawaysis challenging, there are three areas we consider to beparticularly important as we consider the year ahead. My Top 3 Takeaways From the Morningstar 2025 Outlook Make Sure Your Portfolio Meets Your Needs While it is always tempting to chase returns and buy assets that haveexperienced the fastest recent price growth, the key to success is toinvest in assets that meet your specific needs, goals, and circumstances. The Best Opportunities Are Hidden in Plain SightIt is easy to dismiss the best opportunities because they are unpopular, but this unpopularity is often reflected in discounted prices. Like fashion,investing tastes change, and when they do, those discounted assetscan deliver unusually attractive prices for the patient investor. Innovation Brings New Risks as Well as OpportunitiesInnovation in technology or investment is often accompanied by obvious benefits while the less obvious risks are often overlooked. Deep researchand an independent perspective can help you make better decisions. This outlook is guided by our commitment to championingthe investor and is grounded in the independent research thathas been a hallmark of Morningstar for 40 years. Through this period, wehave seen countless investing fashions come and go and asset pricesrise and fall. What has remained constant throughout is thepsychological challenge of investing and the patience required tobe successful. As we enter a new year, I have no doubt thatwe will be faced with booms, panics, scandals, and crises. I am equallyconfident that investing in high-quality assets at attractive priceswill continue to deliver financial security for patient investors longafter the specific events of 2025 become a distant memory. Thanks to Our Contributors I am enormously grateful to the 400-plus strong team of researchers and investors across the globe whose work is representedin this document. My particular thanks