信用｜等待短端下行

请阅读最后一页的重要声明！分析师孙彬彬SAC证书编号：S0160525020001sunbb@ctsec.com分析师孟万林SAC证书编号：S0160525030002mengwl@ctsec.com分析师刘金金SAC证书编号：S0160524050001liujj01@ctsec.com联系人李飞丹lifd@ctsec.com相关报告1.《流动性｜跨季扰动结束，央行呵护会不会随之结束？》2025-06-282.《高频｜地产销售整体偏弱，原油价格大幅回落》2025-06-283.《利率|动态还是静态，票息还是资本利得？——2025年固收中期策略》2025-06-27 核心观点偏弱，长二永上行较多。基金继续维持偏弱状态，净买入处于低位。❖信用利差压降结束了吗？处于有利区间。38.6bp，进一步压降的空间比较有限。❖后市可能如何表现？平移。❖如何参与？户，都建议继续保持久期。当前信用利差仍有压降的空间，只是节奏上放缓概率较高。❖发展超预期 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准1市场回顾：信用债小幅上行...................................................................................................................41.1市场表现如何？..................................................................................................................................41.2保险配置力量增强，基金、理财买入环比明显减弱......................................................................51.3城投债成交久期下降，产业债明显拉长..........................................................................................72市场展望：等待短端下行.......................................................................................................................82.1等待短端下行......................................................................................................................................82.2融资恢复较快，但对市场影响有限................................................................................................103信用买什么？.........................................................................................................................................103.1关注二永债跨季的机会....................................................................................................................103.2普信票息更占优................................................................................................................................114附录.........................................................................................................................................................154.1一级发行情况统计............................................................................................................................154.2二级估值变动细节............................................................................................................................205风险提示.................................................................................................................................................23图1.本周收益率变动.....................................................................................................................................4图2.本周信用利差变动.................................................................................................................................4图3.信用债收益率变动.................................................................................................................................4图4.信用利差变动.........................................................................................................................................4图5.信用收益率和利差变动.........................................................................................................................5图6.保险对银行间信用债的净买入情况.....................................................................................................6图7.基金对银行间信用债的净买入情况.....................................................................................................6图8.银行理财规模存续规模.........................................................................................................................6图9.银行理财规模变动的季节性较强.........................................................................................................6图10.理财对银行间信用债的净买入情况...................................................................................................6图11.其他产品对银行间信用债的净买入情况...........................................................................................6图12.各类信用债成交剩余成交期限占比（按金额）...............................................................................7图13.各类信用债成交隐含评级占比（按金额）.......................................................................................8图表目录内容目录 2 谨请参阅尾页重要声明及财通证券股票和行业评级标准3图14. R001.......................................................................................................................................................8图15. DR007....................................................................................................................................................8图16.存单和中票的比价走势.......................................................................................................................9图17.中票存单利差.......................................................................................................................................9图18. AAA中票10Y-1Y期限利差 ................................................................................................................9图19.近年来非金信用债发行额月度对比.................................................................................................10图20.近年来非金信用债净融资额月度对比.............................................................................................10图21.非金信用债发行期限..........