锡周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：中性价格区间：265000-270000元/吨周度锡价小幅反弹，周五夜盘收于268150元/吨。上周观点我们提及，我们倾向于认为目前还没到交易大幅下跌的时间点，但是价格跌落已经将部分远端弱预期计价在07合约价格中。短期不建议继续追空，若反弹后再空或许更加具有安全边际。本周的反弹再度反复，亦进一步印证了我们对基本面强现实弱预期的判断，价格回归27万以上位置。宏观方面是本周价格上行的最核心因素，当地缘政治告一段落，市场重新回到风险偏好上行的环境中。其中锡作为现实基本面偏强的品种，价格继续上行。基本面方面，本周开始出现松动，尽管6月锡锭生产继续下滑至14000吨以下，同比回落15%，但是高频数据显示周度锡锭冶炼厂开工率有所回升，SMM社会库存亦出现明显累库，现货采买需求清淡。缅甸方面面临雨季锡矿出产或暂时较为困难，但是下半年来看供给增加的预期仍在，我们我们倾向于目前锡基本面紧现实弱预期格局延续，短期锡价将于26万至27万高位区间内，价格向上突破受累于远期供给预期，向下回落受累于原料紧张的现实。策略推荐27万上方逢高布空。锡：微观基本面转弱 ◆◆◆ 交易面（价格、价差、库存、资金、成交、持仓）01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货2025-07-042025-07-032025-07-022025-07-012025-06-302025-06-272025-06-262025-06-252025-06-242025-06-232025-06-202025-06-19 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货-500050010001500200001-0201-14美元/吨100000150000200000250000300000350000400000元/吨本周LME0-3升水22美元/吨，国内现货升水650元/吨。 01-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1405-2606-0706-1907-0107-1307-2508-0608-1808-3009-1109-2310-0510-17LME(0-3)现货升贴水2018201920202021202220232024202501-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-131#锡锭价格201720182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.1现货01000002000003000004000005000006000007000008000009000002020/7/282021/7/28 2022/7/28 2023/7/28 2024/7/28Tin rand fixing price for LME tradeTin grade A min 99.85% ingot all-in price, ddpMidwest US海外premium较上周基本持平，巴尔的摩升水小幅收窄。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.2价差日期2025-07-042025-07-032025-07-022025-07-012025-06-302025-06-272025-06-262025-06-252025-06-242025-06-232025-06-202025-06-192025-06-18 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures-1500-1000-500050010001500200001-0201-1401-26元/吨1.2价差-5000-3000-10001000300050007000900001-0201-1401-26元/吨本周锡月间结构从此前的C结构转为B结构。 02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn02-Sn0320172018201920222023202402-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-0906-2107-0307-1507-27Sn00-Sn01201720182019202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存日期2025-07-042025-06-162025-06-132025-06-122025-06-112025-06-102025-06-092025-06-062025-06-052025-06-042025-06-03 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存05000100001500020000250003000001-0301-1401-2802-1102-25吨0200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000001-0301-15吨本周全球锡总库存累库593吨，国内社会库存累库685吨，期货库存累库57吨。 03-0803-1903-3104-1204-2305-0705-1905-2906-1106-2407-0707-1707-2908-0908-2009-0109-1109-2310-1110-2211-0311-1311-2512-0612-1712-30全球锡总库存2019202020212022202320242025050001000015000200002500001-0301-14吨202001-2902-1503-0103-1203-2304-0304-1604-2705-1005-2106-0106-1206-2307-0407-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-1709-3010-2011-0211-1511-2712-1012-23SHFE锡锭库存总计20182019202020212022202320242025201520162017100001200014000160001800020000吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.3库存020040060080010001200140016001800吨010002000300040005000600070008000900001-0201-1401-26吨20172023本周LME库存去库65吨，注销仓单比例上升至31.52%。 LME:注销仓单:锡LME注销仓单比02-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1310-2511-06LME锡库存201820192020202120222024202520152016 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.4资金截至本周五沪锡沉淀资金为147574万元，近10日资金流向为流入方向。 日期当日资金流向近3日资金流向2025-07-04727.57-764.112025-07-03-3071.56-744.382025-07-0251.66-2094.672025-07-01786.76668.702025-06-30-7122.414618.742025-06-2612636.875511.962025-06-25489.241290.142025-06-243409.77-346.542025-06-23-28.59-1992.792025-06-20-4420.81-562.102025-06-19-1528.97-1142.262025-06-184263.47-651.092025-06-17-6161.27-2610.072025-06-16-55.47-816.192025-06-13-1613.47491.672025-06-12-779.641061.362025-06-113868.11915.642025-06-1095.61-1130.422025-06-09-1216.80-2770.972025-06-06-2270.08-3867.502025-06-05-4826.02-1637.852025-06-04-4506.412541.152025-06-034418.873929.232025-05-307711.003982.242025-05-29-342.182117.862025-05-284577.894577.89沪锡资金流向变化（单位：万元） Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期SHFE总成交sn002025-07-04105697590变化35100-682025-07-03705976582025-07-02889287882025-07-018516419812025-06-30109886105162025-06-27167931347142025-06-26182206702732025-06-25104162547562025-06-2485641558232025-06-23122036843050102030405060708001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0405-1605-2806-09万手x 10000成交量2017201820222023本周沪锡成交持仓小幅回升，持仓量小幅提升。 sn018344126177572647399970070850381088048787839911228762858506-2107-0307-1507-2708-0808-2009-012019202020242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.5成交、持仓日期成交量2025-07-04123.0000变化2025-07-03265.00002025-07-02287.00002025-07-01539.00002025-06-30423.00002025-06-27683.00002025-06-26824.00002025-06-25825.00002025-06-24368.00002025-06-23391.0000LME3个月期货成交量本周LME锡成交小幅回升，持仓继续回落。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures1.6持仓库存比01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-19总持仓库存比20172018201920202023202420252015本周沪锡持仓库存比小幅回升。 锡供应（锡矿、精炼锡）02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures2.1锡矿2025年3月锡精矿产量为6344吨，同比减少0.74%；2025年5月进口13449吨，同比增加59.84%，累计同比减少36.51%