铸造铝合金产业链周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：中性本周铸造铝合金期货走势偏强，周内触及19985元/吨高点。短期来看，目前仍处于处于供需双弱的阶段。进入7月，需求的负反馈已然有所显现，高温淡季、铝价高企等因素不断冲击下游订单，部分压铸企业出现降产。在原料供应短缺、订单下滑的双重压力下，部分再生铝企业出现短期停炉检修或下调开工，企业生产经营压力加剧。考虑到需求没有实质改善的情况下，价格进一步上行空间承压，但成本端支撑逻辑仍在，预计短期铸造铝合金价格将维持窄幅震荡。从当前周频的微观基本面来看，截至7月4日，铝合金锭厂库+社库较前周小去库0.11万吨至10.77万吨，淡季影响深化，库存保持高位。上游方面，废铝流通货源偏紧，加之内外价格倒挂进口废铝也出现减量，整体趋于紧张。精废价差表现为窄幅震荡，整体呈现趋势性上移，后续仍需密切关注废铝流通边际变化。下游方面，6月第四周（6月23日-6月30日），国内乘用车总销量达76.3万辆，同比增长43.15%，季度末汽车市场冲量明显。5月以来增程与插混车型消费明显恢复，加之燃油车市场走势较强，共同促进6月的汽车消费持续走强，部分地区补贴资金出现阶段性紧张，消费者购车积极性持续高涨。精废价差延续回升ADC12-A00延续下滑趋势资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所铸造铝合金：成本支撑逻辑仍在，价格窄幅震荡-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-15元/吨2021010002000300040005000600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-03元/吨2021 ◆◆ 供应端——废铝01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝产量处于高位，社会库存历史中高位3035404550556065707501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝_总量20212022202320242025010203040506070802021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-10万吨华东01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝：出货量合计：中国2021202220232024202500.511.522.5301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 1000020212022数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝进口处于高位，但同比增速下滑铝废料及碎料进口（万吨）同比（%）铝废料及碎料累计进口（万吨）累计同比（%）15.973.7385.666.0919.045.4869.696.6418.34-0.7950.657.0816.4439.9332.3112.1315.87-7.0115.87-7.0115.802.41178.151.7413.83-21.45162.351.6713.31-13.62148.524.5413.20-9.55135.216.7413.77-9.27122.008.8713.52-8.89108.2311.7113.96-14.1394.7115.44051015202501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000铝废料及碎料(76020000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060801001201401601802002021-102021-122022-02x 10000数据来源：同花顺、Fastmarkets、国泰君安期货研究所 供应端——再生铝02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金价格短期小跌，ADC12-A00继续走弱数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所120001400016000180002000022000240002600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨保太ADC1220212022202320242025-1500-1000-50005001600017000180001900020000210002200023000240002022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-042024-062024-082024-102024-122025-022025-042025-06元/吨元/吨保太ADC12-A00（右轴）保太ADC12A00-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨保太ADC12-A0020212022202302004006008001000120001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-10元/吨smm-保太202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金区域价差：价差基本收敛，呈现一定季节性规律19000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨华东华南西南东北数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-300-200-100010020030040050060001-0201-1301-2402-0402-1502-2603-0903-2003-3104-1204-2305-0705-1805-2906-0906-2007-0107-1207-2308-0308-1408-2509-0509-1609-2710-1510-2611-0611-1711-2812-0912-2012-31元/吨华东-西南20212022202320242025-400-200020040060080001-0201-1301-2402-0402-1502-2603-0903-2003-3104-1204-2305-0705-1805-2906-0906-2007-0107-1207-2308-0308-1408-2509-0509-1609-2710-1510-2611-0611-1711-2812-0912-2012-31元/吨华南-西南20212022202320242025-200-100010020030040050001-0201-1301-2402-0402-1502-2603-0903-2003-3104-1204-2305-0705-1805-2906-0906-2007-0107-1207-2308-0308-1408-2509-0509-1609-2710-1510-2611-0611-1711-2812-0912-20元/吨华东-华南20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金开工率小幅下调，月度开工处在历史低位30354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%中国再生铝分规模月度开工率：总开工率2021202220232024202525303540455055606501-0301-1301-2302-0502-1602-2703-0803-1603-2404-0204-1204-2004-2805-1105-1905-2706-0506-1406-2307-0207-1207-2608-0908-23%再生铝合金周度开工率202120222023202430354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金月度产量202320242025山西河南湖南安徽3.32%0.92%1.35%17.93%内蒙古青海四川贵州0.14%0.69%0.23%0.46%山东河北福建湖北3.26%1.88%2.13%7.63%云南上海广东江西0.83%1.83%19.37%6.49%再生铝合金月度产量占比数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesADC12成本以废铝为主，当下匡算平均陷入亏损1700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-3006-1006-2107-0207-1307-2408-0408-1508-2609-06元/吨铝合金总成本202220232024废铝90%硅2%铜4%天然气1%其他3%ADC12成本结构数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-800-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-3006-1006-2107-0207-1307-2408-0408-1508-2609-06元/吨ADC12利润20222023202401000020000300004000050000600007000001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨不通氧553#硅(上海)-平均价20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造合金显隐性库存小降151719212325272901-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金厂区原料库存（月度）202220232024202500.511.522.533.501-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1705-2606-0306-1306-2106-3007-0807-2108-0208-1208-2509-0609-1609-2910-1310-2511-0411-1711-2912-09万吨铝合金锭：社会库存：中国（周）202220232