RLB新加坡和区域建筑市场更新2024年12月

RIDER LEVETT BUCKNALLRIDER LEVETT BUCKNALLSINGAPORE ANDSINGAPORE ANDREGIONAL REPORTREGIONAL REPORT DECEMBER 2024DECEMBER 2024 CONTENTSCONTENTS Introduction1Highlights2MarketsSingapore5Cambodia7Indonesia9Malaysia11Vietnam13Philippines15Japan17Commodity Price Trends20Currency Exchange Rates20Construction Prices in the Region21Professional Services23Our Offices24 INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION General MarketGeneral Market In a reverse of price trends from the first half of 2024, majority of theregion’s construction sector reported largely stabilised labour costs in3Q2024 compared to the previous quarter, with the exception of Jakartaand Tokyo. In contrast, four of seven cities reflected rising material costsin the same period while the rest reflected stable but elevated materialcosts. Theglobal market experienced a mix of resilience and emergingchallenges in the second half of 2024. Despite earlier concerns, theglobal economy maintained steady growth, with projections of around3.2% for 2024. This stability was supported by falling inflation rates androbust employment figures. Going into the new year, tender prices are expected to continue upwardtrends in the range of 2.0% to 5.0%. Tender price movements areexpected to pick up in 2025 year-on-year for Singapore, Ho Chi MinhCity, Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur while Phnom Penh, Manila and Tokyoforecast a slowdown in escalation. More details can be found in thereport. However,there is an increase in economic policy uncertainty asexpectations of policy shifts under new elected governments in 2024shaped the financial market in the second half of the year. Geopoliticaltensions and global trade frictions remain elevated. Global growth is forecast to remain stable at 3.3% in both 2025 and2026, below the historical average of 3.7%. Across economies, growthforecasts show divergent paths, even amongst similarly advanced anddeveloping economies. However, the Asian economies are expected toremain relatively stable and broadly matching that in 2024. Separately,sustainability and disaster preparedness in the builtenvironment were common themes across the cities in the second halfof the year. Numerous countries introduced policies and acts dictatingthe implementation of disaster resistance designs, some highlighted inthis report. With 25 years left to achieve net zero carbon emissions,more sustainability policies for the built environment are being put inplace as well. Construction IndustryConstruction Industry Based on our regional survey on construction cost escalation issues(page3),material costs and labour availability remain key driversofthe tender price escalation.However its weightage has sinceweakened 7% year-on-year. Instead, findings from our survey showsthat macroeconomic and commercial factors such as general inflation,contractor solvency and interest rates are exerting a growing influence.In this report, we have also re-categorised the same twenty influencesfrom the previous report into five influence types. HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS HIGHLIGHTSHIGHLIGHTS REGIONAL* CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY INFLUENCES ON ESCALATIONREGIONAL* CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY INFLUENCES ON ESCALATION Percentage changePercentage changesince 4Q 2023since 4Q 2023 SINGAPORESINGAPORE Construction Market Key construction policies introducedKey construction policies introduced •Introduction of environmental sustainabilitycriteria in quality component of the Price QualityMethod framework from 31 Jan 2025•Revision to Green Mark certification to reflectassessment stages effective 1 Apr 2025 Onboarding of projects onto CORENET XOnboarding of projects onto CORENET X •Implementation date for mandatory submissionrevised•Mandatory submission for new projects withGFA≥30,000m2effective from 1 Oct 2025•Mandatory submission for all new projectseffective from 1 Oct 2026 Economy Indicators Tender prices expected to trend upward inTender prices expected to trend upward in20252025 •Price movement of selected commodities suchas aluminium expected to be supported bysupply deficits•Construction demand in 2025 projected toincrease by 6% to 20% Y-o-Y, exerting upwardpressure on tender prices•Prolonged wars in addition to higher trade tariffslikely to lead to rising prices 4.5% to 5.5%4.5% to 5.5%Inflation 2022Inflation 2022forecast 4.6% Y-o-Yforecast 4.6% Y-o-Ygrowth in 1Q 2022growth in 1Q 20221.5% - 2.5%1.5% - 2.5%Inflation 2025(f)Inflation 2025(f)2.2% Y-o-Y in2.2% Y-o-Y in3Q 20243Q 20242.4% Y-o-Y in2.4% Y-o-Y in2024(f)2024(f) 2.2%2.2%Unemployment rateUnemployment rate1Q 20221Q 20222.7% in 20212.7% in 20211.9%1.9%Unemployment rateUnemployment rate2025(f)2025(f)1.9% in 3Q 20241.9% in 3Q 20242.0% in 2024(f)2.0% in 2024(f) SINGAPORESINGAPORE Note: ƒPrices of granite and concreting sand excluded local delivery charges to concrete batching plants.ƒThe market prices of ready mixed concrete are based on contracts with non-fixed price, fixed price and market retail price for Grade40 pump. CAMBODIACAMBODIA Constructio