汽车行业中期投资策略：弱化边际，重视空间
1 2010-01-042012-01-042014-01-042016-01-042018-01-042020-01-042022-01-042008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020wind ••051015202530352008-01-040500000100000015000002000000 22024-01-042021202220232024 251-23%251-236%251-244%1 13639%253621314151617181911011111212024-72025-7050,000100,000150,000123050000100000123 ••0500100015002000250011 372415%4567891011批发销量（辆）2023202420254567891011上险销量（辆）202320242025 3Q2323.102388215602017202510.412.57.420.36.58.76.08.210.0%10.7%4.7%14.4%13.6%14.2%10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%20182019202020212022202320242025241-21-21-20.02.04.022/0122/0322/0522/0722/0922/1123/0123/030.40.20.70.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%23/0223/0323/0423/0523/0623/0723/0823/0923/1023/1123/1224/0124/0224/0324/0424/0524/0624/0724/0824/0924/1024/1124/1225/0177745573112020020132014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 202422-24 4•3281-2•23-246013.613.2%0.010.020.030.020170.60.80.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%23/0523/0723/0923/1124/0124/0324/0524/0724/0924/1125/011Q240.01.02.023/011151171621406791902017 23242360224817.52327.63Q234Q234Q22-1Q232220222023202412345667.1691.099.695.9811.588.237.827.145.8317.4727.622.582.362.462.542.842.372.1647.9261.283.392.657.516.485.374.714.641.772.193.720.971.60-0.80-0.390.06-0.971.773.967.688.6410.249.459.069.128.15=- 5•24221Q24•&4Q23-1Q244Q24202578910111216.255.776.646.858.427.222.372.462.292.302.304.024.354.475.716.943.37-0.14-1.03-0.13-1.17-0.828.016.976.855.684.86- 202420258910111212348/278/294/179/103/277/252025/1/89/109/59/44/144/258/304/154/108/294/103/68/164/38/149/109/129/34/159/288/304/34/179/34/119/44/189/67/312.1.335%20%76202424254-5 6252025210+10+35%1527 202573+21%52.657.516.485.374.714.644.024.354.475.716.943.374.827.186.876.466.216.346.026.15-55%-2%17%6%-4%9%-23%-26%-19%17%92%-1%82%-4%6%20%32%37%50%41%2025 7••3.395.976.417.2420%34%12%4%-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.00 213132=*+* 82025-203020252026261%7-820%• 2017-20212025-20302026-20282235657571032202342202422025152130468878587669466711010611615714248616010%17%21%18%8%12 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011121314152009-20242017-20211372 9•1058/10/95791324810152633811202421101822198182319820262027202820294203020172018201920202021486985918920092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025810951110 18929202001202004202007202010202101202104202107202110202201202204202207202210202301202304202307202310202401202404202407202410202501202504202020238 1202410 120%20251-420252026202382024102019202020212022202320242025E2026E3,1932,8817,30436,054110,99386,95114,15832,755yoy-10%154%394%208%-22%-84%78,80772,683100,19684,672144,219126,16588,31683,900yoy-8%38%-15%70%-13%-30%3,2713,4727,25524,00681,91778,34844,15837,7554%5%7%28%61%62%50%-78-5914912,04829,0768,603-30000-669-62011,42840,50449,10719,10714,107RUS-AUTO autostat 2171564410•204692%2027E2028E39,64341,625131%21%5%RUS-AUTO88,09592,499-5%5%5%RUS-AUTO39,64341,62545%45%45%-50000014,10714,107 •2025 1-410.524.5%20002.90.40.10.25.10.70.10.25.71.20.10.411.07.31.10.21.014.010.11.30.35.73.80.60.1+37%+37%+37%+68%202020212022202320242025.1-40.30.40.20.10.30.0/2020 ••4.07.28.1 110.10.10.10.21.30.20.2+39%1.01.71.10.720222010 2000 •2022/2023/2024-9.7/-8.8/-27.4202402515.318.320.516.212.71.182.972.27-4.33-3.4420192020202120222023-2019-2024wind 120-12.70-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.015.020.025.02024 2022%00.511.522.5323123423723102412442472.01.10.30.62023202424Q125Q1+202120212024202320242025622781.1%2025 13-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%24102511.6051015202530352022•202419,945202411,4742025•2.5 ++202120222023/20244.48/5.56202470300190KD202020212022202340个国家和地区，70+家一级经销商，300家分销商南非、俄罗斯、坦桑尼亚共三个海外子公司80+家核心经销商300家分销商100+家核心经销商，190家服务商设立一汽解放集团国际汽车有限公司坦桑、南非海外子公司收购JH6J6虎VJ72020-2024 14•2020119.2%•2024100+01234562024J6P ++1300-297=1003-169+90-208-106-96=514-68.5=445.5=41.6OICAS&PGlobal Statista Mordor Intelligence, CEIC2024+90.429+61.4IHS20231,300S&P Global+445.561.414%10% 15100.00%23.00%77.00%13.00%6.92%16.00%8.20%7.40%39.32%5.27%+34.05%13.8%•152024• 202447.61150.7724%3020+2021CAGR50%,23%,10%,10%,9%,4%,3%,2%2025Q1%2.92.33.34.68.711.30246810122019202020212022202320242019024681012 16•25Q1•202411.3,8%,6%,6%,5%ASP00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9201920202021202220232024ASPASPASP() %0200040006000800010000120001400016000251-420252025-203020251-42019202020212022202320242025M1-4中汽协市占率交强险市占率 ••0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%30.0% yoy 2Q242023%2023-06 2023-07 2023-08 2023-09 2023-10 2023-11 2023-12 2024-01512024-02 2024-03 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 2024-07 2024-08 2024-09 2024-10 2024-112025-01 20252024-12-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05502015201620172018201920202021202238089.010.618.517.618.028.421.813.290.7%86.6%118.1%104.7%106.2%102.0%77.3%83.9% 18•56570075580108515905095556091-02 2025-03 2025-04692025-05 2025-062023-01 20232023202412.810.956.2%44.8% -2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%201420152016201720182019法士特凯傲windMAI3,0004,5005,1985,8708,1008,13211,50013,5002019202020212022202320242025E2026E 20202021陕重汽%••02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,000 202220232024雷沃19 ••5•=
