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毛里求斯：选定问题

基础化工 2025-06-01 国际货币基金组织葛大师

Mauritius Fiscal Policy and Poverty Reduction

Mauritius has made significant progress in reducing poverty and inequality in recent years, largely attributed to supportive fiscal policies. However, this has also led to a deterioration of the fiscal position, with public debt reaching around 90% of GDP. The government aims to restore fiscal sustainability while preserving the gains made in social and poverty indicators.

Key Findings:

Poverty and Inequality: The national relative poverty rate fell from 9.6% in 2017 to 7.3% in 2023. The Gini coefficient decreased from 0.40 in 2017 to 0.33 in 2023. Poverty is higher in Rodrigues and among households with lower education levels.
Fiscal Policy and Poverty: While social protection measures have helped reduce poverty, there is room for improving the targeting of social benefits and increasing tax revenue. The BRP (universal) old-age pension, for instance, has a low share of beneficiaries from low-income households.
Tax Reforms: VAT exemptions could be made more progressive to increase revenue without harming the most vulnerable. Lowering the VAT payment threshold could also generate additional revenue.
Personal Income Tax (PIT): The PIT system is relatively generous, with a significant portion of income earners exempted from taxation. Removing some excise duty exemptions, such as those on electric vehicles, could improve tax progressivity.

Policy Recommendations:

Social Expenditure: Improve targeting of social benefit programs to reduce spending while protecting the poor.
Tax Reforms: Make VAT exemptions more progressive, lower the VAT payment threshold, and remove some excise duty exemptions.
PIT System: Gradually reduce the PIT exemption threshold to broaden the tax base.

Mauritius Residential Real Estate Sector Developments

Mauritius has experienced a surge in residential real estate prices, raising concerns about housing affordability and financial stability risks.

Key Findings:

Housing Market Cycle: Mauritius' housing market transitioned from a cooling phase to an expansion and boom phase following the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by low interest rates, fiscal stimulus, and increased foreign demand.
Regional Trends: Real estate prices have risen significantly across all districts in recent years, with Moka and Pamplemousses emerging as new high-value zones.
Historical Drivers: Limited developable land and a real estate-focused growth strategy have contributed to the surge in property prices.
Post-Pandemic Policies: Fiscal measures introduced after the pandemic, such as the Home Ownership Scheme and the Home Loan Scheme, have further fueled demand and prices.
Housing Affordability: Progress in social housing construction has been slow, leaving demand largely unmet.

Policy Recommendations:

Scale Back Post-Pandemic Fiscal Measures: Consider reducing fiscal support for the residential real estate sector to prevent overheating.

Increasing Resilience to Weather Shocks on Housing

Mauritius is highly vulnerable to climate change, and weather shocks pose significant risks to housing infrastructure.

Key Findings:

Weather Shock Patterns: Cyclone season (November to May) and northern eastern regions are more vulnerable to weather shocks.
Housing Damage: The likelihood of roof and wall leaks is higher in more vulnerable districts and during the cyclone season.
Insurance Coverage: Only a small portion of households have house and content insurance, leaving many exposed to financial losses from weather-related damage.

Policy Recommendations:

Expand Access to Private Insurance: Improve affordability and raise risk awareness to encourage more households to obtain insurance.
Stricter Enforcement of Environmental Regulations: Adapt construction regulations to climate and environmental challenges to reduce the likelihood of leaks.
Concessional Financing: Utilize low-cost financing options to support government measures that help households adapt to climate change.

2025年6月毛里求斯财政政策的分布效应 ______________________________________ 4图例附件目录1. 社会福利低收入受益者占比，2023 ____________________________8精选问题表批准非洲司A. 背景__________________________________________________________________________4 B. 贫困与不平等的最新趋势 _____________________________________________4 C. 通过财政政策解决贫困 ______________________________________________7 D. 结论________________________________________________________________________ 10I. 回归结果__________________________________________________________________ 11 参考文献____________________________________________________________________________ 12由 Félix F. Simione (AFR) 和 Vaishali Ashtakala (AFR) 编制。1. 相对贫困家庭比例，1996/97–2023________________________62. 主要经济体：基于每日6.85美元国际贫困线的贫困率 _____________________________________________________________________________________63. 贫困率，2023 ___________________________________________________________________64. 各区贫困率，2023 ________________________________________________________65. 家庭收入与支出 _________________________________________________66. 贫困率，2023 ___________________________________________________________________67. 不平等基尼系数，1996–2023 ____________________________________________________7 8. 毛里求斯：按地区划分的不平等GINI指数，2023 ____________________________________7 9. 总支出变化，2010–2022 _______________________________________________7 10. 经济分类，2022 _______________________________________________________7 11. 家庭预算消费份额，2023____________________________________8 12. 部分经济体：增值税注册门槛，2022_____________________________9 13a. 企业营业额累积分布，2023 _________________________9 13b. 总收入累积分布，2023 ___________________________________9 14. 部分经济体：CO2按部门和地区划分的排放量，2021年 _________________ 10 2025年5月28日 2 国际货币基金组织图例住宅房地产领域发展 _______________________________________13图例提高住房抵御天气冲击的能力_____________________________19参考文献_______________________________________________________________________________________18A. 背景___________________________________________________________________________________19B. 范围和数据 _______________________________________________________________________________19C. 毛里求斯天气冲击模式 _________________________________________________________20D. 衡量屋顶和墙壁泄漏的可能性 ________________________________________21E. 政策启示 ____________________________________________________________________________24F. 结论 ___________________________________________________________________________________261. 居住房产价格指数_______________________________________________________________132. 房地产市场周期_________________________________________________________________________143. 按收入分组的经济体：房地产市场周期 _________________________________________144. 各区每平方米平均价格，2019年和2024年___________________________________155. 区域外商直接投资（FDI）_________________________________________________________________________________166. 部分经济体：宏观审慎措施______________________________________________167. 宏观审慎措施，已发放授权数量 ________________________________168. 财政措施，已发放授权数量____________________________________________171. 平均降雨量_______________________________________________________________________________212. 飓风暴露情况 _________________________________________________________________________213. 2023年面临屋顶漏水的家庭百分比 __________________________________________224. 2023年报告屋顶和墙壁漏水的家庭 ________________________________________225. 部分小岛屿国家：非人寿保险保单数量 _________________________256. 2013-2023年新建住宅许可证和环境影响的评估数量_______________________________________________________________________________________257. 2022/23财年征收的绿色和环境税金额 ___________________________26A. 毛里求斯与跨国证据，2014—2024___________________________________________13B. 毛里求斯房价飙升的区域趋势，2019—2024 _________________________15C. 毛里求斯房价飙升的历史驱动因素：气候与以房地产为重点的增长战略 _________________________________________________________________________________15D. 政策在毛里求斯疫情后价格中的作用：宏观审慎收紧与财政支持__________________________________________________________________________________________16 参考文献__________________________________________________________________________________________27表1. 2023 年家庭收支调查精选统计表________________________________________202. 毛里求斯：报告至少有一处屋顶和墙壁渗漏的家庭百分比 ______________________223. 回归结果：带有控制变量的双重差分法 __________________________________234. 自然灾害计划 _________________________________________________________________________25 国际货币基金组织 3 财政政策的分布影响4 国际货币基金组织B. 贫困与不平等的最新趋势A. 背景1.近年来，社会保障已成为毛里求斯政策目标中的突出重点。随着当局希望将毛里求斯列入高收入和发达国家行列，近年来财政政策逐渐向实现社会目标倾斜。社会转移支付和养老金的显著增加，以及新津贴和奖金的引入，在新冠疫情后显著增加了当前支出。这种财政政策的社会导向有助于提高家庭收入和消费，从而在基于收入的评估方式下帮助降低了国家贫困率。3.本文评估了毛里求斯能够多大程度上重新校准其财政政策，以恢复财政可持续性，同时保护贫困人口和弱势群体。B部分回顾了近年来贫困和收入不平等的发展情况。C部分讨论了改革社会转移和税收豁免、同时保障贫困目标的潜在方案。D部分总结。2.同时，财政扩张也导致了更高的公共债务与GDP比率。在2019年6月底至2025年6月底期间，公共债务存量增加了近30个GDP百分点，达到约90%的GDP。虽然财政扩张伴随着贫困和不平等程度的降低，但资本支出——对支持长期增长至关重要——却停滞不前。展望未来，当局旨在通过提高资本支出来支持增长，但目前实现这一目标的空间有限。在此背景下，本文重点关注通过财政整顿恢复财政空间，同时保持近期在社会和贫困指标方面取得的进展所面临的挑战。4.毛里求斯在减贫方面取得了显著进展。最新的家庭预算调查（HBS）于2023年进行。根据当局的估计（基于毛里求斯的全国贫困线），全国相对贫困率从2017年的9.6%下降到毛里求斯近年来的支持性财政政策有助于减少贫困和不平等。同时，基础财政扩张导致财政状况恶化。由于目前有限的财政空间难以支持长期增长，毛里求斯旨在通过财政整顿重建政策缓冲，同时保持社会福利和贫困指标的最新成果。基于2023年家庭调查数据的分析表明，有空间压缩社会福利支出并增加税收收入。为达成这一目标，政策可能包括更精准地发放社会福利，通过简化减免和津贴以及降低纳税门槛来改革增值税和个人所得税。在继续保护弱势群体的情况下，这些措施应该可以得到实施。国际货币基金组织 5

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