阿拉伯联合酋长国：选定问题

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SELECTED ISSUES December 2025 This paperonthe United Arab Emirateswas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201 International Monetary Fund UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SELECTED ISSUES November11, 2025 ApprovedByMiddle East and Central PreparedbyKoralai Kirabaeva, Michele Marcaletti, Karim Badr,Rana Fayez, Charlotte Sandoz, SebastianoDell’Acqua (all MCD),and Amanda Sayegh (FAD), under theguidance of Said CONTENTS THE UAE ECONOMY: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RESILIENCE_________________________3 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________________3B. Financial Resilience to Global Shocks_____________________________________________________5C. The USInterestRateTransmission to the UAEEconomy__________________________________9D. External Trade and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements________________11 BOX 1.Spotlight on India CEPA_________________________________________________________________15 A. Introduction_____________________________________________________________________________17B. Fiscal Structure of the UAE______________________________________________________________17C. Fiscal Policy Objectives and Challenges_________________________________________________20D. Strengthening Fiscal Policy Framework_________________________________________________22 BOX 1. Core Objectives and Elements of an MTFF______________________________________________23 ANNEX I.Country Case Studies on Fiscal Coordination____________________________________________28 NON-HYDROCARBON PRODUCTIVITY A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________________31B. Estimation Methodology for Non-Hydrocarbon TFP__________________________________________31C. Results_________________________________________________________________________________________32 BOX 1. AI in the UAE__________________________________________________________________________________34 TABLE 1. How Can AI Enhance Productivity in the Different Sectors of the UAE Economy?_____________38 THE UAE ECONOMY: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL The economyhasdemonstrated broad resilience to global policy changes, including USdollarandinterest rate movements,and volatility surges. The impact of global shocks on the UAE financialmarkets and capital flows has been smaller than for GCC and EM indices,reflecting stronginvestors’confidence. The response of credit and GDP to US monetary policy shocks has been relatively weaker A.Introduction 1.Over the past decade, the UAE’seconomic activity has becomemoresynchronized with the global business Concordance indices (the proportion oftime that two countries are in the samephase of the business cycle) with mainsystemic countries increased over time,while the synchronization with regional synchronization,reflectingthe economy’s exposure to external demandand global financial 2.The UAE’s open economy and strong integration into global markets expose it to awide range of external shocks.As a major oil exporter, the country remains sensitive tofluctuations in globaloilpricesthroughfiscal revenuesandexternal balances. At the same time, theUAE’s role as a financial and trade hub makes it vulnerable to shifts in global financial conditions, disruptions could weigh ontrade flows, including re-exports.Regionalgeopolitical riskscan further 3.In this paper, weexamine the impact of global uncertainty and market volatility,aswell aschanges in oil prices, US dollar index,and movements in US Treasury Yields.Wefocus on the impact of four measures of uncertaintyand volatility:(i)TheTrade Policy Uncertainty(TPU)index by Caldara et al. (2020)measures the share of news articles discussing uncertaintyabout trade policy,andis highly correlated with other uncertainty indices such as theGlobal volatility of the S&P 500index) reflects investors’expectations of stock marketvolatility2and is commonlyused as a proxy for financialuncertainty and investor risksentiment; and (iv) TheOilPrice Volatility index (OVX)captures uncertainty related 4.Global shockscould betransmitted to the UAE through multiple channels (TextFigure3).Financial markets transmit uncertainty and volatility-related shocksrapidlythroughbond yields,CDS, and stock market returns.Monetary conditions are affected through credit growth and broadmoney (M2), which respond to shifts in liquidity and capital flows. External demand shocks,meanwhile, are transmitted through trade in goods and services, particularly non-oil exports and B.FinancialResilienceto Global Shocks 5.TheUAEfinancial markets and financial flowshave demonstrated resilience to globalshocks, with some selected shock-specific sensitivities.Empirical