阿拉伯联合酋长国：选定问题

SELECTED ISSUES This paperonthe United Arab Emirateswas prepared by a staff team of the InternationalMonetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with themember country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed onNovember 11, 2025. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByMiddle East and CentralAsia Department PreparedbyKoralai Kirabaeva, Michele Marcaletti, Karim Badr,Rana Fayez, Charlotte Sandoz, SebastianoDell’Acqua (all MCD),and Amanda Sayegh (FAD), under theguidance of SaidBakhache. CONTENTS THE UAE ECONOMY: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL RESILIENCE_________________________3 A. Introduction_______________________________________________________________________________3B. Financial Resilience to Global Shocks_____________________________________________________5C. The USInterestRateTransmission to the UAEEconomy__________________________________9D. External Trade and Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements________________11E. Conclusion_______________________________________________________________________________15 BOX 1.Spotlight on India CEPA_________________________________________________________________15 FEDERALISM AND FISCAL OPERATIONS IN THE UAE__________________________________17 A. Introduction_____________________________________________________________________________17B. Fiscal Structure of the UAE______________________________________________________________17C. Fiscal Policy Objectives and Challenges_________________________________________________20D. Strengthening Fiscal Policy Framework_________________________________________________22E. Fiscal Statistics___________________________________________________________________________26F. Conclusion_______________________________________________________________________________27 BOX 1. Core Objectives and Elements of an MTFF______________________________________________23 ANNEX I.Country Case Studies on Fiscal Coordination____________________________________________28 NON-HYDROCARBON PRODUCTIVITY AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN THE UAE__________________________________________________31 A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________________31B. Estimation Methodology for Non-Hydrocarbon TFP__________________________________________31C. Results_________________________________________________________________________________________32D. The Role of AI in Boosting Productivity and Supporting Growth______________________________33 BOX 1. AI in the UAE__________________________________________________________________________________34 TABLE 1. How Can AI Enhance Productivity in the Different Sectors of the UAE Economy?_____________38 THE UAE ECONOMY: ECONOMIC AND FINANCIALRESILIENCE1 The economyhasdemonstrated broad resilience to global policy changes, including USdollarandinterest rate movements,and volatility surges. The impact of global shocks on the UAE financialmarkets and capital flows has been smaller than for GCC and EM indices,reflecting stronginvestors’confidence. The response of credit and GDP to US monetary policy shocks has been relatively weakerin recent years, particularly duringinterest rate tightening cycles and periods of abundant liquidity.The impact of heightened global and regional uncertainty on tourism and trade has been limited, withresilience further supported by expandinginternational agreements. A.Introduction 1.Over the past decade, the UAE’seconomic activity has becomemoresynchronized with the global businesscycle(TextFigure 1).This reflects thecountry’s deepening integration into theglobal economy through financial,investment, and trade linkages. Concordance indices (the proportion oftime that two countries are in the samephase of the business cycle) with mainsystemic countries increased over time,while the synchronization with regionalpartners (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) hasdeclined. GDP growth correlations and theUAE trade openness with main systemiceconomies also indicate increased synchronization,reflectingthe economy’s exposure to external demandand global financialconditions. 2.The UAE’s open economy and strong integration into global markets expose it to awide range of external shocks.As a major oil exporter, the country remains sensitive tofluctuations in globaloilpricesthroughfiscal revenuesandexternal balances. At the same time, theUAE’s role as a financial and trade hub makes it vulnerable to shifts in global financial conditions,investor sentiment, and geopolitical developments. Surges in global interest rates and risk premiacan affect capital flows, financing, and asset prices, while heightened tra