瑞穗日报

Jun 27, 2025 -USequitiesralliedacrosstheboard. Three Take-Aways FX(DXY:-0.5%) 1)Weaker than expected US GDP showing consumers cuttingbackonservicesexpenditureledUSTyieldslowerandfuelratecutbetsandequitiesrally. -USDcontinuetosoftenamidweakerUSTyieldsandrisingbetsforFedeasing.AUDoutperformedsoaringtomid-65cents.EURalsoroseabove1.17.USD/JPY rose back to mid-114 after testing sub-144 during theAsianhours.USD/SGDcontinuetohoveraroundmid-1.27. 2)Revenge tax in US fiscal bill removed as US TreasuryDepartmentsecures exemption for US companies from OECDPillar2taxeswhichincludesglobalminimumtaxes. Korea:Tensions -PocketsoftensionscontinuetopersistinKorea.SouthKoreaislikelyto announce measures to curb housing prices next week ashousingpricegrowthacceleratedinJunereaching0.4%onaweekonweekbasis.The sharp increase was in part attributed to increasedemandahead ofhigherDebt ServicingRatioto beimplement inJulywhichwasintendedtoensurehousingmarketstability.Thisreflectstheperversenatureofhousingmarketbehaviourandunintendedpolicyeffects.ThisalsorevealsthepotentialtensionbetweenBoK'seasingcycletosupporttheeconomyanddebt/housingsustainabilitydynamics. 3)HousingpriceacceleratinginSeoulputsauthoritiesonalertandrevealspolicytensionsasmonetaryandfiscalpolicyremainaccommodativetoaggregateeconomicgrowth. MACROTHEME:Cuts -FrontendUSTyieldssankonthebackofweakerthanexpectedUSGDPdata.Specifically,inthisthirdestimate.Q1privateconsumptionwasreviseddownwardssharplyto 0.5%QoQfromthe1.2%inthesecondestimate.TheimplicationhereisthatthedownwardrevisionisnolongerjustaboutimportsbeingfrontloadedresultinginlowerGDP.Thesightofhouseholdscuttingbackonspendingonservicesisthekeyworryrightnow. -Thesecondsupplementarybudgetforthisyearwillalsolikelybepassedinthe National Assembly next week given the ruling party's majority.Almosthalfofthe30.5trillionwonbudgetwillbeusedforuniversalcashgrantwhileareported5trillionmaybespentondebtwrite-offsandjobsecuritymeasures.Theneedforhigherborrowingwhichwillincreasegovernmentdebt to GDP ratio to 49%from 48.4%in the firstsupplementarybudget has resulted in front end yields rising byaround15bpsforJuneinsharpcontrasttolowerUSTyieldsaswellasintheregion. -Consequently,betsonratecutshavecontinuedtorise.Fedfundsfuturesarenowpricingin64bpsofcutsratherthan55bpsatthestartoftheyear.Thatsaid,Fed'sDalycontinuedtore-iterateherexpectationsofaratecutinthefallwhileSusanCollinsindicatedthatJulymaybetooearlyassheexpectstoseemoreinformationthanonemoremonthofdatabeforetheJulymeeting.Similarly,Barkingalsosaidthattheyhavetime to track developments patiently and allow visibility toimprove.Nonetheless,market expectations for rate cuts providedsupportforUSequitiestorallyfurther. -StablecoinsharesalsofellastheBoKwarnedofhastyadoptionandfinancialinstabilityrisksincontrasttothePresident'spledgetolaunchawon-peggedstablecoinmarket. -Onthepolicyfront,USTreasuryDepartmenthasannouncedthattheysecuredadealwithG7alliestoexcludeUScompaniesfromOECDPillar2 Taxes.As such,theywill berequesting for theremovalofSection899intheOneBigBeautifulBillwhichwasalsoknownastherevengetaxwhichwouldallowtheUStoraisetaxesforcountrieswhichtheydeemasdiscriminatory. Vietnam:EffortsandResults -VietnamPMhassaidthattheyexpectpositiveresultsfromtheirtradenegotiationsinlessthan2week(beforethe8Julydeadline).Nonetheless,anaversionoftheworstcase46%reciprocaltariffsisreliefbutnotaresolutionofpotentialheadwinds. -Forone,thecurrent90-daywindowwhichallowsjustbaseline10%tariffrepresentsasubstantialgainrelativetothe30%facedbyChina'sexports.Thisallows industrial production to remain robust on the back offrontloadingand should lead to a stellar Q2 GDP.However,even ahypotheticalhalvingofreciprocaltariffsto23%wouldimplydiminishallureofrelocation accounting for setup costs ranging from capital goods tolabourtraining.For now,in terms of FDI attractiveness,commitmentshaveaccelerated66%butdisbursementgrowthismuchmilderat7.9%perhapsreflectingthepotentialofalteringsupplychainhamperedbyelevateduncertainty.ManufacturingsectorFDIstillaccountfornearlytwo-thirdsofFDIcommittedinQ1. -Asfortrade,CommerceSecretaryLutnicksaidthattheysecuredatradeunderstandingwithChinabasedontheGenevameetingandthedealwassignedandsealedtwodaysago. -Forothercountries,Lutnicksaidthat"Wearegoingtodotop10deals,put them in the right category,and then these othercountriesfitbehind".Withthecurrentbaselinetariffof10%lookingtobethe best case at this juncture,one should begin to balancecontemplatingextentofdamagefromtheelevationfromthisstartingpointratherthanrelieffromtheoutsizedreciprocaltariffstobeginwith.Anydeal is perhaps some relief from no deal though in alllikelihoodaworsedealfromthecurrentexemption. -TheimpactofadealontheVNDthoughwillfallshortofmacroeconomicoptimismintermsofinvestmentallure.DepreciationpressuresmaybetemporarilykeptatbaybutisnotacatalystfordurableralliesespeciallyifUSeconomicgrowthcontinuestodeteriorateanddentVietnam'sexportearnings. Yields(2Y:-6.3bp;10Y:-5.0bp;30Y:-3.2bp) -FrontendUSTyieldinched