2025量子技术监测

June 2025 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permissionof McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited What can you find in this report? An overview of thecontinuously evolvingquantumtechnology (QT) market—includinginvestments, competitive landscape, andeconomic activities—covering quantumcomputing (QC), quantum communication(QComm), and quantum sensing (QS); see page4 for definitions of these areas Sections of the Monitor Technological innovations and breakthroughs in QT,including view on intellectual property (IP) and publicationsRevised internal market size and value at stakeUpdated insights on the private and public investmentlandscapeQT innovation clusters and QC start-upsQC value chain, particularly on equipment and componentmanufacturersDeep dive into QCommQT impact on cutting-edge technology, including AI andmachine learning, robotics, sustainability and climate tech,and cryptography and cybersecurity Overview of thematurity of the QT ecosystemand the use of QT in the broader industrycontext,based on current application of thetechnology and patent and publication activity Definitive and exhaustive listof start-ups,investment, and economic activities in theQT space Contents IntroductionInnovations and breakthroughs Innovations and breakthroughsMarket size and value at stakeMarket size and value at stakeInvestment landscapeInvestment landscapePrivate fundingPrivate fundingPublic announcementsPublic announcementsClusters and start-upsClusters and start-upsValue chainValue chainDeep dive into QCommDeep dive into QCommQT impact on cutting-edge technologiesQT impact on cutting-edge technologiesMethodology and acknowledgmentsMethodology and acknowledgments Quantum technology encompasses thethree subfields ofcomputing, communication, and sensing. Quantum computingA new computing paradigm leveraging The secure transfer of quantuminformation across distances andcould ensure security ofcommunication even in the face ofunlimited (quantum) computingpower1 the laws of quantum mechanics toprovide significant performanceimprovement for certain applicationsand enable new territories ofcomputing compared to existingclassical computing Quantum sensing A new generation of sensors, based on quantum systems, that provide measurements of various quantities (eg,electromagnetic fields, gravity, time) and are orders of magnitude more sensitive than classical sensors A quantum computer leveragesquantum mechanics, making it verypowerful. Why is quantum computing sopowerful? Which problems can a quantum computer solve? Linear algebra (machine learning and AI)for, eg, reduction oflarge data for better decisions, predictions, and automationSimulationof quantum systems and processes—eg, molecularprocesses, material sciences, and life sciencesMathematical optimizationwith algorithms that can enable nearreal-time optimization for, eg, financial modelingFactorization (security) of large numbers withexponentialspeedup—eg, to break mainstream encryption protocols It leverages the phenomena of quantum mechanics: Superposition: The possibility of quantum systems to not bein a single defined state (left or right, up or down, etc)Entanglement: The possibility of two or more (even physicallyseparate) systems to form an inseparable combined stateInterference: The potential of quantum states to combine What do potential use cases look like? Finance Security Automotive Pharma and chemicals Optimization of collaterals:Consider more collaterals andsolve with higher accuracy Linear algebra for batteryoptimization: Efficiently predictthe lifetime of batteries Simulation of molecules:Simulate molecular processesfor drug discovery Factorization: Use quantumrandom number generators toenhance security Key messages:Quantum Technology Monitor 2025 Deep diveinto QComm QT impact oncutting-edgetechnologies Market sizeand valueat stake Value chain Clusters andstart-ups SectionInnovationand break-throughs Investmentlandscape Q-Day will be apivotal shift insecurity,requiring earlyadoption ofQComm, with~$1B totalmarket size in2023 drivingmarket growth at22–25% CAGR In 2024, mostnew start-upsemerged incomponents andapplicationsoftware, with avalue shiftmoving fromcomponentstowardapplicationsoftware Key messagesBreakthroughannouncementsin 2024 fromtech players andstart-ups showmajor advancesin quantumcontrol,specifically inerror correctiontoward reliableand stable QC QC companiesbegan a shifttoward revenuegeneration,earning anestimated$650M–$750Min 2024, and areexpected tosurpass $1B bythe end of 2025 QT is a keyenabler withinthe broaderdisruptive techecosystem,offering powerfulsynergies withother emerginginnovations Start-ups areincreasinglyconsolidatinginto clusters,with emerginghubs in Asia andgrowing clustersin the US atstate level Start-upinvestments inQT grew by~50% YoY to$2B in 2024,with publicfunding showinga significantincrease (19 pp1)from 2023 Source: Contin