麦肯锡数字量子技术监测

April2024 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYof McKinsey&Company is strictly prohibited What can you find in this report? Continuouslyevolvingoverviewofthequantumtechnology(QT)market(includinginvestmentscompetitivelandscape,andeconomicactivities),coveringquantumcomputing (QC),quantumcommunication(QComm),andquantum sensing (QS);seethe next pagefordefinitions of these areas New additionsto the Monitor Updatedinsightsontheinvestmentlandscape(pp.10-25)Revised internal market size and value at stake (pp.26-30)TechnologicalbreakthroughsinQT(pp.31-33)GlobalresearchandIPlandscape(pp.34-42)Regionalperspectiveonquantumtechnology(QT)inNorthAmerica(pp.43-45),Asia(pp.46-52),andEurope(pp.53-60)DeepdiveonQTinnovationclusters(pp.61-66)TechnologydeepdivesforQCincludingquantumcontrolandbenchmarking(pp.67-84)PerspectivesontechnologyandapplicationsforQComm(pp.85-90)Qs(pp.91-97),andquantumandAl(pp.98-100) Overviewof thematurityof theQTecosystemandthe useofQTinthebroaderindustrycontext,basedoncurrent application of the technology andpatent and publication activity Definitiveandexhaustivelistofthestartup,investment,andeconomicactivitiesintheQTspace Definitions:Quantumtechnologyencompassesthethreesubfieldsofcomputing,communication,andsensing Quantumcomputing(QC)isanewcomputingparadigmleveragingthelawsofquantummechanicstoprovidesignificantperformanceimprovementforcertainapplicationsandenablenewterritoriesofcomputingcomparedtoexistingclassicalcomputing Quantumsensing（Qs） isanewgenerationof sensorsbasedonquantumsystemsthatprovidemeasurementsofvariousquantities(eg, electromagnetic fields, gravity,time)that areorders ofmagnitudemoresensitivethanclassicalsensors Quantumcommunication(QComm) isthesecuretransferofquantuminformation1acrossdistancesandcouldensuresecurityof communicationeveninthefaceofunlimited(quantum)computing power.2 Investmentsandecosystem QuantumTechnologyMonitor 2024overview(1/2) $42B+26%YOYtotal government investmentannounced 367start-ups intheQTecosystem +5%YOY +25%YOY total cumulative global QT start-upinvestment Quantum technology market size scenariosfor2035and2040 Based on existing development road maps andassumedadoption curve Quantumsensing$0.5B-$2.7B$1B-$6B Quantumcomputing2035$28B-$72B2040$45B-$131B Quantumcommunication Private and corporatefundingforQTstart-upsslowedfromprioryearswasannouncedbyseveralgovernments,totaling~$42billionTheecosystemcontinuesto progresstoward unlocking an estimatedeconomicvalueof~$2trillionby2035 $11B-$15B$24B-$36B Potential economic value fromquantumcomputingin2035 ~$0.9T-$2T potential economicvalueacrossfourindustriesby2035:chemicals,lifesciences,finance,andmobility QuantumTechnologyMonitor 2024overview(2/2) Quantum computing Quantum sensing Quantumcommunication :261start-ups$6.7billioninvestment 96start-ups$1.2billion investment 48start-ups$o.7billion investment Companies pursuing two or more quantum technologies simultaneously:38 ThemomentumintheQTecosystemwillbefueledbytherobusttalentandpatent activities. Key players makegroundbreakinginnovations,therebydrivingtheQTecosystemforwardtoward quantum advantage. Technological breakthroughsin2023 Quantumsensing Quantumcommunication Quantumcomputing Improvedperformanceforquantumkeydistribution,anddemonstrationoflongertransmissiondistancesand increased data ratesforquantumnetworks Developmentof newtechniquestoimprovethesensitivityofquantumsensingdevices Quantumerror-correctionproposalsanddemonstrationsbylargeplayersacceleratetimelinestoward large-scale,fault-tolerantquantumcomputing Scientific progress 4,763+1%YOYQT-related patents granted in 20221 42,155QT-related publications in2023 4.5%YOY Quantum-capabletalent 55+10%YOYQT master's degreeprograms 195 +8.3%YOY universities with QT researchgroups Executive summary (1/3) There was continuous momentum and ahuge amount of funding announced in 2o23,but decreasedprivate investments andareducednumberof new start-ups. Quantumtechnologyinvestmentlandscape Total annual QTstart-upinvestmentdecreasedby27%YoYto$1.7billion,adeclinesmallerthanthe38%decline inall start-up investment worldwide.Investments in all quantumtechnologies declined,withthelargestdecline inquantumsensing. FewernewQTstart-upswerecreatedin2023(-44%YoY,to13),withthemajority(62%)offundinggoingto companiesfoundedfiveormoreyearsago Publicinvestmentscontinuestrong:Germany,theUnitedKingdom,SouthKorea,andIndiadateto~$42billion Ourupdated analysis showsthe market sizefor2035forquantumcomputing is expectedto reach$28billionto $72billion;forquantumcommunication,$11billionto$15billion;and forquantumsensing,$o.5billionto$2.7billion. Internal market size andvalue at stake Ourupdatedanalysisonvalueatstakealsoshowsthefourindustrieslikeliesttoseetheearliesteconomicimpactfromquantumcomputingchemicals,lifesciences,finance,andmobilitystandtopotentiallygainupto $2 trillion in value by 2035. Executive summary (2/3) Pathbreakingmilestones achieved inerrormitigationand correctionpromiseto sign