2026年量子技术监测报告

April 2026 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permissionof McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibitedCONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permissionof McKinsey & Company is strictly prohibited What can you find in this report? An overviewof thecontinuously evolvingquantum technology (QT) market(includinginvestments and market development),coveringquantum computing (QC), quantumcommunication (QComm), and quantumsensing (QS) Sections of the Monitor Commercialization and industry impactInvestment landscapeQT market developmentTechnological maturity and deep dives, including: —QT intellectual property (IP) and clusters—QT value chain—Cybersecurity—Hybrid computing and integration in data centers—QT emerging ecosystemsMethodology and acknowledgments An overview ofthe QTecosystem’s maturity(including maturity of industry use cases),basedon applications of the technology and academicactivity (including patents and publications) A definitiveand exhaustive listof start-ups,investments, and commercial readiness in theQT space Note: Companies are mentioned as illustrative examplesthroughout this report; this is purely demonstrative and notrepresentative of the companies’ capabilities Technological maturity and deep dives Key takeawaysfromQuantum Technology Monitor 2026 >$1BRevenuesfor QCcompanies in 2025+300Companieswithdedicated quantum efforts$1.3T–$2.7TValueat stakeby 2035 Revenue of QC companies is rising ascommercialization gains traction; >$1Bin 2025, estimated to grow to $3.2B–$4.4B in 2028Marketmomentum QT is becoming strategically relevant ascommercialization accelerates QT use cases are expanding acrosssectors, with multiple use cases beingembedded in end-to-end workflowsImproved technical maturityisenhancingcommercially viable use casesAs adoption scales, the window ofopportunity before clear winners appear isnarrowing Value at stake for industry is increasingwith use case commercialization; totalvalue at stake is estimated to grow to$1.3T–$2.7T in 2035Economicpotential QT investments have acceleratedsignificantly,increasing by 6.3x from2024 to 2025Investmentacceleration Over the next decade, QT will evolve to anindustry-definingcapability, attracting more investors and growing QT companies.Deep dive to followX Quantumtechnologycompanies Shift from exploration to scaled valuecapture:Focus toward securing set ofhigh-impact use cases (eg, optimization,simulation) delivered via quantum-as-a-service Window of opportunity before clearwinners emerge:No dominant modalityor player has been established yet Market shaping through collaborationand access models:Players arecodeveloping standards and platformswhile leveraging quantum-as-a-service toaccelerate adoption and early revenues Holistic investment strategies:Capitalis flowing across the value chain(hardware, control, software) to hedgetechnological uncertainty Start-ups and SMEs3shifting to commercialvalidation:Expectations moving fromtechnical progress to business value, withrevenue increasingly driven by codevelopment,and focus on commercial milestones andecosystem partnerships Codevelopment becomes the leadingengagement model:Partnerships withQT companies are increasinglystructured around joint development Governments accelerating clusterformation and security applications:Public investments, mainly in academia,drive national benefits (eg, PQC2development) Big tech scaling through ecosystemand integration:Capability build-up viaM&A and strategic investments isaccelerating, while cloud and data centeraccess for hybrid (HPC–QC) deploymentat scale is leveraged to offer quantum-as-a-service Internal capabilities delivercompetitive advantage:Winningorganizations invest early in talent,infrastructure, and hybrid HPC1–QCintegration to industrialize quantumadoption Fault tolerance is inflection point:Private investments increasingly hingeon credible paths to error correction andrevenue from emerging use cases 1. High-performance computer.2. Post-quantum cryptography.3. Small and medium-size enterprises. 1. Industry players:There is rapid progress toward commercializationas industry players start to engage in codevelopment for R&D. •Industry players are movingfrom POCs to paidcodevelopmentwith QTplayers (300+ industry playerscollaborating with leading QCcompanies)•Following customer-fundedR&D, future sale stagesincludescaling of use casesand sales Value at stake by 2035 for industry players $1.3T–$2.7T QC presents a massive use case opportunity,with rapid acceleration expected in the coming5 to 10 years 2. Investors:Quantum investment increased by 6.3x from 2024 to2025. Key insights Investments in QT acceleratedsignificantly in 2025, growing by6.3x from 2024 to 2025Investments are concentratedin QC, with multiple significantdeals driving total investmentvolumeClear commercializationpotentialand correspondingindustry impactare key driversfor investors 3