焦煤/焦炭半年度报告：供需格局未变，价格仍将寻底

目录1．2025年上半年市场回顾..............................................................................................................................................42.焦煤：供应主动减产较难，上游库存持续累积............................................................................................................62.1国产端同比增量明显..................................................................................................................................................62.2利润仍为进口关键因素，进口量放缓........................................................................................................................92.3煤矿库存累积...........................................................................................................................................................123.焦炭：供应低位成本下移，但产能过剩格局未改......................................................................................................133.1产能过剩格局难改，焦化利润维持低位.................................................................................................................133.2下游库存低位，出口下滑.........................................................................................................................................134.焦煤、焦炭供需总结...................................................................................................................................................155.风险提示......................................................................................................................................................................15 2期货研究报告 图表目录图表1：炼焦煤现货价格.............................................................................................................................................................4图表2：焦煤基差........................................................................................................................................................................4图表3：焦炭现货价格.................................................................................................................................................................5图表4：焦炭基差........................................................................................................................................................................5图表5：焦煤月差........................................................................................................................................................................5图表6：焦炭月差........................................................................................................................................................................5图表7：中国炼焦煤产量.............................................................................................................................................................6图表8：523家样本矿山日均精煤产量.........................................................................................................................................6图表9：山西炼焦煤产量.............................................................................................................................................................7图表10：内蒙炼焦煤产量...........................................................................................................................................................7图表11：汾渭山西样本炼焦煤矿开工率......................................................................................................................................7图表12：汾渭内蒙炼焦煤矿开工率.............................................................................................................................................7图表13：国内样本煤矿利润........................................................................................................................................................8图表14：山西样本煤矿利润........................................................................................................................................................8图表15：我国炼焦煤进口量........................................................................................................................................................9图表16：蒙古炼焦煤进口量........................................................................................................................................................9图表17：288口岸监管区库存...................................................................................................................................................10图表18：288口岸通关车辆数...................................................................................................................................................10图表19：澳洲炼焦煤进口量......................................................................................................................................................10图表20：俄罗斯炼焦煤进口量..................................................................................................................................................10图表21：澳洲炼焦煤海运至中国.............................................................................................................................