经合组织经济调查：冰岛2025

c e h v n L o a i u s n r OECDEconomicSurveys:Iceland2025 June2025 Volume2025/17 c e h v n L o a i u s n r OECDEconomicSurveys:Iceland 2025 Thisdocument,aswellasanydataandmapincludedherein,arewithoutprejudicetothestatusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothedelimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea. ThestatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw. NotebytheRepublicofTürkiye Theinformationinthisdocumentwithreferenceto“Cyprus”relatestothesouthernpartoftheIsland.ThereisnosingleauthorityrepresentingbothTurkishandGreekCypriotpeopleontheIsland.TürkiyerecognisestheTurkishRepublicofNorthernCyprus(TRNC).UntilalastingandequitablesolutionisfoundwithinthecontextoftheUnitedNations,Türkiyeshallpreserveitspositionconcerningthe“Cyprusissue”. NotebyalltheEuropeanUnionMemberStatesoftheOECDandtheEuropeanUnion TheRepublicofCyprusisrecognisedbyallmembersoftheUnitedNationswiththeexceptionofTürkiye.TheinformationinthisdocumentrelatestotheareaundertheeffectivecontroloftheGovernmentoftheRepublicofCyprus. Pleasecitethispublicationas: OECD(2025),OECDEconomicSurveys:Iceland2025,OECDPublishing,Paris,https://doi.org/10.1787/890dbe05-en. ISBN978-92-64-67225-3(print) ISBN978-92-64-71575-2(PDF) ISBN978-92-64-66654-2(HTML) OECDEconomicSurveysISSN0376-6438(print) ISSN1609-7513(online) OECDEconomicSurveys:IcelandISSN1995-3240(print) ISSN1999-0308(online) Photocredits:Cover©VincentKoen.Chapter1©VincentKoen.Chapter2©AnneRichard/Shutterstock.com.Chapter3©HansjörgBlöchliger.Chapter4©Evannovostro/Shutterstock.com. CorrigendatoOECDpublicationsmaybefoundat:https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/support/corrigenda.html. ©OECD2025 Attribution4.0International(CCBY4.0) ThisworkismadeavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0Internationallicence.Byusingthiswork,youaccepttobeboundbythetermsofthislicence(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Attribution–youmustcitethework. Translations–youmustcitetheoriginalwork,identifychangestotheoriginalandaddthefollowingtext:Intheeventofanydiscrepancybetweentheoriginalworkandthetranslation,onlythetextoforiginalworkshouldbeconsideredvalid. Adaptations–youmustcitetheoriginalworkandaddthefollowingtext:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbytheOECD.TheopinionsexpressedandargumentsemployedinthisadaptationshouldnotbereportedasrepresentingtheofficialviewsoftheOECDorofitsMembercountries. Third-partymaterial–thelicencedoesnotapplytothird-partymaterialinthework.Ifusingsuchmaterial,youareresponsibleforobtainingpermissionfromthethirdpartyandforanyclaimsofinfringement. YoumustnotusetheOECDlogo,visualidentityorcoverimagewithoutexpresspermissionorsuggesttheOECDendorsesyouruseofthework. AnydisputearisingunderthislicenceshallbesettledbyarbitrationinaccordancewiththePermanentCourtofArbitration(PCA)ArbitrationRules2012.TheseatofarbitrationshallbeParis(France).Thenumberofarbitratorsshallbeone. 3 Foreword ThisEconomicSurveywaspreparedbyHansjörgBlöchliger,YosukeJinandNatiaMosiashviliunderthesupervisionofVincentKoen.EditorialsupportwasprovidedbySisseNielsenandcommunicationassistancebyLauraFortin. ThisSurveyispublishedundertheresponsibilityoftheEconomicandDevelopmentReviewCommitteeoftheOECD.TheCommitteediscussedthedraftSurveyon14May2025.Thecut-offdatefordatausedintheSurveyis13June2025. InformationaboutthisandpreviousSurveysandmoreinformationabouthowSurveysarepreparedisavailableathttps://www.oecd.org/en/topics/economic-surveys.html. 4 Tableofcontents Foreword3 BasicstatisticsofIceland,20247 Executivesummary8 1Theeconomyisrebalancing15 1.1.Growthissettorecover17 1.2.Monetarypolicyiseasing33 1.3.Thefinancialsystemremainsresilient36 1.4.Fiscalpolicyshouldbecomemoreforward-looking40 References47 2Raisingfoundationalskillsandeducationquality50 2.1.Educationqualityisdecliningamidstpersistinginequalities51 2.2.Tailoringsupporttoindividualstudentneeds52 2.3.Strengtheningaccountabilityinahighlydecentralisedschoolsystem54 2.4.Streamliningthecurriculum57 2.5.Improvingteachingquality58 2.6.Regulatingtheuseofdigitaldevicesforabetterschoolenvironment60 References63 3Poweringtheelectricitysectorinthefaceofclimatechange66 3.1.Iceland’sambitiousclimatetargetsputthepowersystemunderstrain67 3.2.Increasinganddiversifyingsupplycouldhelpensureenergysecurity70 3.3.Speedingupadministrativeprocedures72 3.4.Reformingregulationcouldhelptheelectricitymarketfunctionbetter75 References78 4Reformingregulatoryframeworkstoboostbusinessdynamism80 4.1.RegulatoryframeworkstendtoimpedebusinessdynamisminIceland81 4.2.Reformingproductmarketregulationtoboostbusinessdynamism88 4.3.Increasingexposuretocompetitionfromabroad97 4.4.Makinginsolvencyregimesmoreeffective106 References115 OECDECONOMICSURVEYS:ICELAND2025©OECD2025 FIGURES 5 Figure1.Iceland’seconomyhascooled 9 Figure2.Foundationalskillsaredeclining 11 Figure3.Demand