中国民营企业的回归（第一部分）：潮流已转

中国策略中国民营企业的回归（第一部分）：潮流已转自2020年底以来，中国民营企业（POEs）市值蒸发近4万亿美元，且（含股息）表现落后于国有企业部门56个百分点。中国民营企业按市值计占整个上市市场的60%，目前正逐步在股票市场中重拾“魔力”。关键论点如下：KingerLau,CFA+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.TimothyMoe,CFA+65-6889-1199|timothy.moe@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte傅思,ꢀ博士si高.fu盛@（g亚s.c洲o）m有限责任公司|私营部门的重要性已被高级1.政策制定者认可，正如习近平主席于二月召集中国企业家举行的研讨会以及四月底首次颁布的民营企业法所体现的；王凯文,ꢀ注册金融分析师2978‑2446ꢀk|e高vi盛n.（wa亚n洲g@）g有s.c限o责m任公司根据我们2.修订后的专有指标，私营经济的监管周期已趋缓，这有助于压缩上市民营企业的政策和监管风险溢价；持续的人工智能和科技突破已改写叙事，并提升了民营企业的增长前景，民营企业占我们定义的人工智能科技领域的72%；民营企业正引领中国“走出去”战略，使其能够实现有机增长，享受更高利润率，并从竞争激烈的国内市场中实现多元化；民营企业的利润和净资产收益率自2022年低谷以来已分别上升了22%和1.2个百分点，5.并且在行业整合推动利润率正常化的背景下可能进一步恢复；民营企业部门“动物精神”回归的早期迹象表明对未来增长的投资意愿正在恢复，6.；民营企业的估值相较于其历史区间和7.国有企业存在折扣，现金回报（收益率）升至历史高位。尽管贝塔故事有所改善，我们认为在广泛的上市民营企业中，仍需选择性以实现成功。我们看好中国杰出、中国精选人工智能组合10ꢀGSꢀ以及我们的“小巨人篮子”中的投资主题，适合希望获得有针对性敞口的投资者。此外，民营企业和国有企业并非相互排斥——我们重申对“高质量”中国国有企业股东回报投资组合的主题偏好。投资者应将本报告仅作为其投资决策的单一因素。有关AC规则认证及其他重要披露，请参见披露附录，或访问ꢀwww.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 KingerLau,CFA+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.TimothyMoe,CFA+65-6889-1199|timothy.moe@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Singapore)PteSiFu,Ph.D.+852-2978-0200|si.fu@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.KevinWang,CFA+852-2978-2446|kevin.wang@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C. +852‑2978‑0200ꢀ+852‑ ThetidehasturnedforChinesePOEsExhibit1:ListedChinesePOEshavelostalmostUS$4tnofmarketcapitalizationsincethepeakin2020(Indexedperf)(USDtn)POEperfPOEmktcap[RHS]4tnUSD(-32%)110010009008007006005004003002001000141210866tnUSD(-51%)Loss42Note:indexedperformancebasedonPOEconstituentsinMSCIChina,andmktcapbasedonallChinaPOEs0Source:Wind,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit3:ChinesePOEsrepresent60%oftheentirelisteduniversebytotalmarketcapAll-China(A+H+ADR)marketcapbreakdownFinancials,2%ConsStap,4%Materials,5%CommSvcs,6%SOE,40%HealthCare,7%Industrials,9%POE,60%ConsDisc,12%IT,13%Source:Wind,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit5:ListedPOEshaveunderperformedtheirSOEpeersby56pp(totalreturns)sinceearly2021,ledbymultiplede-ratingMSCIChinaPOEvsSOErelativetotalreturnbreakdown300%250%POEsoutperformingSOE200%150%100%50%0%POEvsSOEfPEchangeEPSchangeRelativeperformance-50%Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch15June2025 中国民营企业的潮流已转变图表1：自2020年高峰以来，上市中国民营企业市值已蒸发近4万亿美元(Indexedperf)POEperfPOEmktcap[RHS]4tnUSD(-32%)1100100090080070060050040030020010006tnUSD(-51%)LossNote:indexedperformancebasedonPOEconstituentsinMSCIChina,andmktcapbasedonallChinaPOEsSource:Wind,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表3：中国民营企业占整个上市市场总市值的60%All-China(A+H+ADR)marketcapbreakdownFinancials,2%ConsStap,4%Materials,5%CommSvcs,6%SOE,40%HealthCare,Industrials,9%POE,60%ConsDisc,12%IT,13%Source:Wind,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表5：自2021年初以来，上市民营企业的总回报率较国有企业同行低56个百分点，主要因估值倍数下调MSCIChinaPOEvsSOErelativetotalreturnbreakdown300%250%POEsoutperformingSOE200%150%100%50%0%POEvsSOEfPEchangeEPSchangeRelativeperformance-50%Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2025年6月15日 Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,WindExhibit4:RegulatoryriskshavebeeninfluentialtoPOEs’returnsinthepastfewyearsPOEPerformanceandHighlightsofKeyPOEEventsandRegulations11010090SAMRwarned34majortechfirmstocurbexcessinantitrustreviewsNote:IndexedperformancebasedonPOEconstituentsinMSCIChina.CACproposedandsoughtforpubliccommentsthatcybersecurityreviewCPCCentralCommitteeandStateCouncilissuedguidelinestopromoteprivatesectorgrowthTheShanghaiandHongKongstockexchangeshaltedAntGroup’sIPO80SPPAannouncedthefirstbatchofdomesticonlinegameapprovallists70CACimposed8bnRMBfineonDidiKeyChineseregulatorsproposing25measurestosupporttheprivateeconomy60CSRChalted42AshareIPOs50NationalAnti-monopolyBureauwasofficiallylaunchedCEWChighlightedSOEandPOEshouldbetreatedequally40Source:DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit6:ManytargetedwaystogainexposuresinthePOEuniversePerformanceofChinaThemessince2024(Indexed)Prominent1018017016015014013012011010090SelectChinaAILittleGiants8070Prominent10includesTencent,Alibaba,Xiaomi,BYD,Meituan,Midea,Hengrui,NetEase,Trip.comandANTA.SeePart3ofthePOEseriesfordetailSource:MSCI,Wind,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch,Wind图表4：监管风险在过去几年对民营企业回报产生了重要影响POEPerformanceandHighlightsofKeyPOEEventsandRegulations11010090SAMRwarned34majortechfirmstocurbexcessinantitrustreviewsNote:IndexedperformancebasedonPOEconstituentsinMSCIChina.CACproposedandsoughtforpubliccommentsthatcybersecurityreviewCPCCentralCommitteeandStateCouncilissuedguidelinestopromoteprivatesectorgrowthTheShanghaiandHongKongstockexchangeshaltedAntGroup’sIPO80SPPAannouncedthefirstbatchofdomesticonlinegameapprovallists70CACimposed8bnRMBfineonDidiKeyChineseregulatorsproposing25measurestosupporttheprivateeconomy60CSRChalted42AshareIPOs50NationalAnti-monopolyBureauwasofficiallylaunchedCEWChighlightedSOEandPOEshouldbetreatedequally40Source:DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch图表6：在民营企业领域获得敞口的多种针对性方式PerformanceofChinaThe