中国民营企业的回归（第二部分）：为什么大型民营企业越来越大

ChinaStrategyThecomebackofChinesePOEs(Part2):WhylargePOEsaregettinglargerInPart1ofthisPOEseries,wearguethatthemedium-terminvestmentcaseforChinesePOEshasimprovedduetovariousmacro,policy,andmicrodrivers.However,notallPOEsarecreatedequal,andourenvisagedmarketlandscapeshiftsandstructuraltrendsleadustobelievethatmarket(cap)concentrationinthePOEuniverseispoisedtorise,consideringthat:1.Chinahasoneofthelowestmarketconcentrationratiosamongkeyequityblocsglobally,withthetop-10companies(includingSOEs)representing17%ofthetotallistedmarketcap,vs.33%intheUSand30%inEMex-China;2.TheChinaanti-trustandM&Aframeworkshavebeenmademoretransparentinrecentyears,andregulatorypressuresontheprivateeconomyhaveeased,bodingwellforPOEs’organicandacquisitivegrowth;3.IndustryconsolidationinPOE-ledsectorsislowvs.theUS,pointingtopotentialfurthermarketsharegainsandprofitabilityupsideforexistingleaders;4.Severalincumbentshavealreadydominatedtheprofitpool,capex,andR&Dintheirrespectiveindustries,allpositivelylinkedwithfuturereturnsandsectordominanceperourpanelregressionanalysis;5.ManylargePOEsaretheinventors,enablers,investors,andconsumersofgame-changingAItechnologies;6.TheyareleadingChina’sglobalexpansionstrategy,whichhasbenefitedcompanies’top-linegrowthandprofitability;7.Top-10POEstradeat13.9fP/E(-1.6s.d.)and22%premiumovertheaggregatemarket,vs.74%in2021and43%forMag7;and8.IndexheavyweightsshoulddisproportionatelybenefitfromthereturnofglobalfundstoChina,andthecontinuedriseofdomestic“patient”andpassivecapital.Ourtop-downframeworksuggeststhattenexistingmarketleaders—ChineseProminent10—havethepotentialtobecomemoredominantinthestockmarket,akintotheMagnificent7stocksintheUS.SeePart3ofourPOEseriesfordetails.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgotowww.gs.com/research/hedge.html. KingerꢀLau,ꢀCFA2978‑1224ꢀkinꢀ+852|GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.莫迪明,ꢀ注册金融分析师6889‑1199ꢀti|m高o盛th（y.新m加oe坡@）gs私.c人om有限公司傅思,ꢀ博士+852‑2978‑0200ꢀsi高.fu盛@（g亚s.c洲o）m有限责任公司|王凯文,ꢀ注册金融分析师2978‑2446ꢀk|e高vi盛n.（wa亚n洲g@）g有s.限co责m任公司 KingerLau,CFA+852-2978-1224|kinger.lau@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.TimothyMoe,CFA+65-6889-1199|timothy.moe@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Singapore)PteSiFu,Ph.D.+852-2978-0200|si.fu@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.KevinWang,CFA+852-2978-2446|kevin.wang@gs.comGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C. ‑ger.lau@gs.com+65‑+852‑ 为什么大型民营企业越来越大在《中国民营企业的回归》系列第一部分中，我们认为中国私营企业（POEs）的中期投资案例因多种宏观、政策和监管、微观基本面及投资组合流动性驱动因素而得到改善。虽然水涨船高，但我们相信差异化和特异性是广泛中国民营企业领域中产生阿尔法的关键，该领域涵盖了超过5,000家上市公司，分布于136个子行业（GICS4），多年来表现出显著的收益分散。此外，我们对市场和行业竞争格局以及结构性趋势变化的预期表明，某些板块中现有的大型/超大型行业领导者可能会延续其主导地位，因此推动市场（市值）集中度比率从目前的17%显著提升至未来数年更高水平。图表1：并非所有民营企业都一样——多年来中国民营企业表现出显著的收益分散1-YearRollingReturnsacrossPOEUniverse240%180%120%60%0%-60%来源：万得,ꢀFactSet,ꢀ高盛全球投资研究#1：股权市场（市值）集中度的低起点在全球范围内，投资者对市场集中度的关注和讨论主要围绕美国股票展开，其中市值前十公司/七大巨头股票占整个上市公司整体的33%/28%，为现代历史最高水平。相比之下，中国在全球主要股权集团中拥有最低的市场集中度比率之一，市值前十股票仅占A股、H股和美国存托凭证市场总上市市值的17%，远低于2000年代中期的历史最高点46%，当时工商银行和中国移动分别占总市值的12%和8%。15June2025 WhylargePOEsaregettinglargerInPart1ofTheComebackofChinesePOEsseries,wearguethatthemedium-terminvestmentcaseforChineseprivate-ownedenterprises(POEs)hasimprovedonthebackofvariousmacro,policyandregulation,microfundamental,andportfolioflowdrivers.Whilearisingtidemayliftallboats,webelievedifferentiationandspecificityisthekeytogeneratingalphainthebroadChinesePOEuniversewhichholdsmorethan5,000listedcompaniesacross136sub-industries(GICS4)andhasexhibitedsignificantreturndispersionovertheyears.Moreover,ourexpectationsforshiftsinthemarketandindustrycompetitivelandscapeandinstructuraltrendsindicatethatexistinglarge/mega-capindustryleadersincertainsectorsarelikelytoextendtheirdominance,andthereforepropelmarket(cap)concentrationratiosfrom17%atpresenttomeaningfullyhigherlevelsintheyearsahead.Exhibit1:NotallPOEsarecreatedequal—ChinesePOEshaveexhibitedsignificantreturndispersionsovertheyears1-YearRollingReturnsacrossPOEUniverse240%180%120%60%0%-60%Source:Wind,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch#1:Alowstartingpointinequitymarket(cap)concentrationGlobally,investors’focusesanddebatesaboutmarketconcentrationhaverevolvedaroundUSequities,wherethetop-10companiesbymarketcap/theMagnificent7stocksaccountfor33%/28%oftheentirelisteduniverse,thehighestinmodernhistory.Incontrast,Chinahasoneofthelowestmarketconcentrationratiosamongkeyequityblocsglobally,withthetop-10stocksrepresentingjust17%ofthetotallistedmarketcapacrosstheA-,H-,andADRmarkets,downfromtheall-timepeakof46%inthemid-2000swhenICBCandChinaMobilemadeup12%and8%ofthetotalmarketcap.15June2025 MedianInterdecile MedianInterdecile2 2 来源:ꢀFactSet，高盛全球投资研究图表3：中国拥有全球最低的市场（市值）集中度比率之一Taiwan(88)France(58)Germany(53)Korea(81)UK(74)Canada(83)USA(5337)India(159)Japan(183)China(5429)0%Source:MSCI,FactSet,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch#2:ꢀ更加支持民营企业的政策和监管环境首先，我们重新设计的民营企业监管代理指标——一个帮助量化针对私营部门监管收紧强度的文本指标——显示自2021年中达到历史高点以来，上市民营企业面临的监管压力已显著缓解，这一点可通过习近平主席于2月初召集的高规格研讨会与部分私营企业家会面得到体现。其次，首部促进民营企业法最近获批，旨在稳定民营企业主的信心和预期。此外，作为政策制定者推动改善供需