原油周度报告

SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesCONTENTS宏观02原油：或延续强势挑战85美元/桶，多单、正套酌情逢高利率、贵金属与油价走势比较海外服务业数据中国信用数据 价格及价差基差月差内外盘原油价差净持仓变化 供应OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览美国页岩油产量 需求欧美炼厂开工率中国炼厂开工率 库存美欧各类油品库存亚太各类油品库存 综述止盈 2 观点综述01 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures观点综述：或延续强势挑战85美元/桶，多单、正套酌情逢高止盈我们的观点：◆Brent三季度仍有机会挑战85美元/桶（较上周上修5美元/桶）；◆中长期看，油价下行压力较大，年内Brent或考验50美元/桶；我们的逻辑：◆情绪面看，短期中东地缘升级，风险溢价可随意炒作。回归基本面看，OPEC+环比增产规模低于市场预期。且美国制裁下伊朗原油供应大幅收缩（受到美伊关系扰动）、除浮仓外主要地区库存绝对值较低、美国页岩油供应增幅放缓等利好仍然存在。叠加中美元首通话下的情绪利好，油价仍可能继续反弹；◆若OPEC+较好地执行增产，原油市场中长期过剩压力加大。叠加贸易战不确定性，年内或有更深跌幅；风险提示：◆全球经济、地缘、气候等宏观面不确定性；OPEC+内部分歧引发的价格战；美国页岩油技术再突破。我们的策略：◆单边多单持有，酌情止盈；◆正套酌情止盈； 4 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures美债长端利率大幅波动，金油比高位回落资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究-2-101234WTI美国:国债收益率:10年-1年（右轴）02040608010012014016070758085909510010511011512013-0914-0214-0714-1215-0515-1016-0316-0817-0117-0617-1118-0418-0919-0219-0719-1220-0520-1021-0321-0822-0122-0622-1123-0423-0924-0224-0724-1225-05European Crude Dated Brent Spot美元指数（右轴）0102030405060Comex黄金/Brent SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures海外通胀继续回落，中美“贸易”关系缓和-4-202468102009-082010-022010-082011-022011-082012-022012-082013-022013-082014-022014-082015-022015-082016-022016-082017-022017-082018-022018-082019-022019-082020-022020-082021-022021-082022-022022-082023-022023-082024-022024-082025-02期货收盘价(活跃):WTI原油:ICE:月:平均值美国:CPI:当月同比3035404550556065法国0204060801001202013-122014-052014-102015-032015-082016-012016-062016-112017-042017-092018-022018-072018-122019-052019-102020-032020-082021-012021-062021-112022-042022-092023-022023-072023-122024-052024-102025-03美国:ISM:服务业PMIWTI月均价30.0035.0040.0045.0050.0055.0060.0065.0070.002016-032016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-11美国:Markit:制造业PMI(终值)资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国月度出口量一览2020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052024-082024-112025-02原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿尔及利亚:当月值0204060801001201402020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052024-082024-112025-02原油:产量(基于直接来源):赤道几内亚:当月值05001000150020002500300035004000450050002020-082020-12原油:产量(基于直接来源):伊拉克:当月值2020-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122023-042023-082023-122024-042024-082024-122025-04原油:产量(基于直接来源):尼日利亚:当月值0200040006000800010000120002020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-112023-022023-052023-082023-112024-022024-052024-082024-112025-02原油:产量(基于直接来源):沙特阿拉伯:当月值05001000150020002500300035002020-082020-112021-02原油:产量(基于直接来源):阿联酋:当月值资料来源：Bloomberg，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W32哈萨克斯坦原油出口0500010000150002000025000300002023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W06Kb020004000600080001000012000140002023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W32Kb利比亚原油出口2023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W32加蓬原油出口020004000600080001000012000140001600018000200002023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W32Kb尼日利亚原油出口0200040006000800010000120002023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W06Kb资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFuturesOPEC+核心成员国周度出口量一览（含预测值)2023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W32阿尔及利亚+刚果共和国+赤道几内亚情况2023-W492023-W522024-W032024-W062024-W092024-W122024-W152024-W182024-W212024-W242024-W272024-W302024-W332024-W362024-W392024-W422024-W452024-W482024-W512025-W022025-W052025-W082025-W112025-W142025-W172025-W202025-W232025-W262025-W292025-W32巴西原油出口0500001000001500002000002500003000003500002023-W492023-W512024-W012024-W032024-W052024-W072024-W092024-W112024-W132024-W152024-W172024-W192024-W212024-W232024-W252024-W272024-W292024-W312024-W332024-W352024-W372024-W392024-W412024-W43KbOPEC+(excluding Brazil)资料来源：Kpler，国泰君安期货研究 SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures非OPEC+周度出口量一览（含预测值)2023-W482023-W512024-W022024-W052024-W082024-W112024-W142024-W172024-W202024-W232024-W262024-W292024-W322024-W352024-W382024-W412024-W442024-W472024-W502025-W012025-W042025-W072025-W102025-W132025-W162025-W192025-W222025-W252025-W282025-W31加拿大原油出口010000200003000040000