甲醇周度报告

综述：偏强运行01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述：地缘冲突带来不确定性，短期多配➢国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格继续偏强，其中江苏价格波动区间在2300-2420元/吨，广东价格波动在2280-2320元/吨。港口甲醇市场由于对市场可流通量的担忧，月内买气好转，推动市场价格上涨，基差走强，但涨至高位后，市场买气走弱，价格窄幅回落，但整体仍维持强势运行为主。本期内地甲醇市场小幅推涨，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1883-1897元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2150-2160元/吨。受宏观情绪影响，盘面及港口价格上调，产区企业走量不走价积极超卖，叠加烯烃外采需求尚存，价格处于相对低位吸引部分贸易商介入，周内多数产区工厂出货顺畅。(隆众资讯）➢基本面：本周甲醇港口如期累库，进口外轮卸货顺利，显性计入26.53万吨。江苏沿江主流区域社会库区提货略有减量，江浙整体下游刚需消耗稳健，外轮供应补充下库存积累。本周华南港口库存继续累库。广东地区主流库区提货量略有缩减，周内进口及内贸船只均有补充，集中到货下库存呈现累库。福建地区周内进口船只补充供应，下游消耗力度一般，库存止降转增。(隆众资讯）➢期货：整体来看，短期反弹。短期市场炒作25年以上船龄的船不能靠港江苏码头，对港口给予一定支撑。从总体来看，限制老船靠港不影响整体平衡，影响短期港口累库速度和阶段性矛盾。在当前港口实际库存偏低的背景之下，港口价格有一定支撑。伊朗近期天然气供应不稳定，甲醇装置在亏损边缘，或影响后续开工。伊朗地缘局势非常不稳定，不确定性较大，短期甲醇仍然是偏强震荡为主。内地甲醇6月之后面临高供应、累库压力仍然在。短期不是市场关注的重点。➢策略建议：地缘不确定性强，短期多配；买MA空PP为主；➢风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； 3 价格及价差02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures基差，月差，仓单-300-200-100010020030040001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-10元/吨CZCE：甲醇：基差（日）2020202120222023-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100010020001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨9-1月差2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内现货价格05001000150020002500300035004000450001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：内蒙古（日）202020212022050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：河南（日）202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国际现货价格010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06美元/吨甲醇中国CFR202020212022010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06欧元/吨甲醇鹿特丹FOB202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures港口内地价差-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06元/吨太仓-河北202020212022-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-25元/吨太仓-川渝202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇检修汇总地区厂家西北青海桂鲁青海中浩内蒙古博源新疆新业苏里格陕西黄陵榆林凯越中煤鄂能化内蒙古天野金诚泰华北山西大土河山西万鑫达山西永鑫山西潞宝山西宏源孝义鹏飞西南江油万利云南云天化华中河南中新 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量及开工率15000017000019000021000023000025000027000029000031000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-18吨甲醇：产量：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-04%甲醇：产能利用率：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量—分工艺10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1705-2806-0806-2107-0307-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-18吨甲醇：焦炉气制甲醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025800000900000100000011000001200000130000014000001500000160000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1705-2806-0806-2107-0307-1607-2908-1108-2409-0609-18吨甲醇：煤单醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇开工率—分地区606570758085909510001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西北地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025010203040506070809010001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西南地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇进口相关0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31吨甲醇：进口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202205001000150020002500300035004000450001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-18元/吨甲醇进口成本202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇成本050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：内蒙古（日）2020202116001650170017501800185019001950200001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产成本：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇利润0100020003000400050006000700001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-27元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：山东（日）20202021-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-15元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产毛利：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游开工率40506070809010011001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%甲醇制烯烃：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023051015202501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%二甲醚：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游-MTBE0102030405060708001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%MTBE：产能利用率：中国（月）201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游利润(MTO)-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-020