甲醇周度报告

综述：偏强运行01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述➢国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格强势上涨，其中江苏价格波动区间在2450-2780元/吨，广东价格波动在2400-2650元/吨。在地缘局势的影响下，基于对市场预期供应的担忧，加之近期沿海市场可流通量偏低位，港口甲醇市场强势上涨为主，但下游对高价接受度一般，涨后下游买气明显走弱，对部分市场形成拖拽。本期内地甲醇市场延续涨势，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1990-2030元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2190-2260元/吨。受盘面及港口价格双双走高，内地出货竞拍成交向好，但下游需求薄弱导致港口强于内地。(隆众资讯）➢基本面：本周甲醇港口库存如期去库，周期内阶段性抵港偏少，显性外轮卸入14.2万吨，个别在靠船货尚未计入在内。库存基数偏低以及国产汽运送到补充，使得江苏沿江部分主流库区提货有所减量，外轮补充有限以及刚需消耗下，江浙同步去库。本周华南港口库存明显去库。广东地区周内仅部分内贸船只补充供应，主流库区提货量尚算稳健，库存明显去库。福建地区周内一船进口货源补充供应，下游刚需消耗下，库存亦有去库。(隆众资➢期货：中东局势短期仍然不稳定，伊朗甲醇装置大量停车导致8月之后港口库存大概率维持低位。前提推荐的买ma空pp压缩mto利润策略已经到极值附近，部分MTO工厂面临停车压力，后续大概率外采乙烯维持开工。近期乙烯价格快速攀升，持续挤压下游利润。此前6-9月的持续累库预期转为持续去库预期，即使短期伊朗局势缓和，甲醇供需仍然偏强。阶段性是化工的多配。➢策略建议：买MA空PP为主；➢风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； 3讯） 价格及价差02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures基差，月差，仓单-300-200-100010020030040001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-10元/吨CZCE：甲醇：基差（日）2020202120222023-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100010020001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨9-1月差2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内现货价格05001000150020002500300035004000450001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：内蒙古（日）202020212022050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：河南（日）202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国际现货价格010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06美元/吨甲醇中国CFR202020212022010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06欧元/吨甲醇鹿特丹FOB202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures港口内地价差-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06元/吨太仓-河北202020212022-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-25元/吨太仓-川渝202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇检修汇总地区厂家西北青海桂鲁青海中浩内蒙古博源新疆新业苏里格陕西黄陵榆林凯越中煤鄂能化内蒙古天野金诚泰华北山西大土河山西万鑫达山西永鑫山西潞宝山西宏源孝义鹏飞西南江油万利云南云天化华中河南中新 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量及开工率15000017000019000021000023000025000027000029000031000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-18吨甲醇：产量：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-04%甲醇：产能利用率：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量—分工艺10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1705-2806-0806-1907-0107-1407-2708-0908-2109-0309-1609-29吨甲醇：焦炉气制甲醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025800000900000100000011000001200000130000014000001500000160000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1705-2806-0806-1907-0107-1407-2708-0908-2109-0309-16吨甲醇：煤单醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇开工率—分地区606570758085909510001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西北地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025010203040506070809010001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西南地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇进口相关0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31吨甲醇：进口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202205001000150020002500300035004000450001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-18元/吨甲醇进口成本202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇成本050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：内蒙古（日）2020202116001650170017501800185019001950200001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产成本：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇利润0100020003000400050006000700001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-27元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：山东（日）20202021-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-15元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产毛利：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游开工率40506070809010011001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%甲醇制烯烃：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023051015202501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%二甲醚：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游-MTBE3035404550556065707501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%MTBE：产能利用率：中国201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游利润(MTO)-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2