甲醇周度报告

综述：逐步转入震荡格局01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures综述➢国内现货：本期港口甲醇市场现货价格上涨为主，其中江苏价格波动区间在2610-2820元/吨，广东价格波动在2440-2650元/吨。沿海甲醇市场主要交易逻辑仍在于宏观面对市场情绪的影响，在国际形势的波动下，本周港口甲醇市场宽幅震荡。基本面来看，港口主流甲醇市场近期可流通量偏低位，货权较为集中，近月基差坚挺运行为主，其他区域市场在下游高价采买情绪较弱的压制下跟涨相对有限。本期内地甲醇市场延续涨势，主产区鄂尔多斯北线价格波动区间在1990-2033元/吨；下游东营接货价格波动区间在2265-2315元/吨。本周长约月底提货近尾声，加之前期低价合同基本执行完毕，因此部分买盘积极补货。(隆众资讯）➢基本面：本周甲醇港口库存较大幅度累库，外轮卸货正常，国产送到套利放量，致使沿海表需大幅走弱。江苏沿江主流库区提货明显减量，部分国产直接送至下游影响社会库提货，另有南京主要终端主力管输非显性码头，最终导致江苏明显累库。浙江地区刚需稳中偏弱，正常外轮补充下库存窄幅减量。本周华南港口库存呈现累库，主要体现在广东地区，周期内进口及内贸船只均有到港，而主流库区提货量减少，使得库存累积明显。福建地区则暂无船只到货，下游少量刚需消耗下，窄幅去库。(隆众资讯）➢期货：伊朗问题逐步炒作结束，随着海外装置逐步恢复，甲醇短期高点出现。阶段性MTO利润到达极限，部分工厂陆续开始出现预期外停车，重新扭转港口平衡。7-8月港口仍然维持偏低库存，基差持续维持偏强格局。成本端煤炭、电力反弹，甲醇利润开始被动压缩。逐步转为小累库、压利润、季节性检修减产格局。短期矛盾不大，绝对价格震荡为主。➢策略建议：短期震荡为主。➢风险点：宏观事件冲击，国际能源价格大幅波动； 3 价格及价差02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures基差，月差，仓单-300-200-100010020030040050001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-10元/吨CZCE：甲醇：基差（日）2020202120222023-800-700-600-500-400-300-200-100010020001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨9-1月差2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国内现货价格05001000150020002500300035004000450001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：内蒙古（日）202020212022050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-23元/吨甲醇：国标：市场低端价：河南（日）202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures国际现货价格010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06美元/吨甲醇中国CFR202020212022010020030040050060001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06欧元/吨甲醇鹿特丹FOB202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures港口内地价差-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-06元/吨太仓-河北202020212022-200-100010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-25元/吨太仓-川渝202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇检修汇总地区厂家西北青海桂鲁青海中浩内蒙古博源新疆新业苏里格陕西黄陵榆林凯越中煤鄂能化内蒙古天野金诚泰华北山西大土河山西万鑫达山西永鑫山西潞宝山西宏源孝义鹏飞西南江油万利云南云天化华中河南中新 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量及开工率15000017000019000021000023000025000027000029000031000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-18吨甲醇：产量：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025606570758085909501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-04%甲醇：产能利用率：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇产量—分工艺10000012000014000016000018000020000022000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1705-2806-0806-1906-3007-1307-2608-0708-2009-0209-1509-28吨甲醇：焦炉气制甲醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025800000900000100000011000001200000130000014000001500000160000001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1404-2505-0605-1705-2806-0806-1906-3007-1307-2608-0708-2009-0209-15吨甲醇：煤单醇：产量：中国（周）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇开工率—分地区606570758085909510001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西北地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025010203040506070809010001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-09%甲醇：产能利用率：西南地区（日）20182019202020212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇进口相关0200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31吨甲醇：进口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202205001000150020002500300035004000450001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-18元/吨甲醇进口成本202020212022 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇成本050010001500200025003000350040004500500001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：内蒙古（日）2020202116001650170017501800185019001950200001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-21元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产成本：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇利润0100020003000400050006000700001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-27元/吨甲醇：煤制：生产成本：山东（日）20202021-50005001000150020002500300001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-15元/吨甲醇：焦炉气制：生产毛利：河北（日）20202021 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游开工率40506070809010011001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%甲醇制烯烃：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023051015202501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-17%二甲醚：产能利用率：中国（日）2020202120222023 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游-MTBE3035404550556065707501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%MTBE：产能利用率：中国201820192020202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures甲醇下游利润(MTO)-5000-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2