铸造铝合金产业链周报

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures强弱分析：偏弱短期基本面来看，目前处于供需双弱的阶段。随着淡季程度走深，需求的负反馈已然有所显现，铸造铝合金企业由于销售存在压力而下调开工，对于原料废铝的需求减少，从而压制废铝价格，表现为近期精废价差回升，成本端下移亦使得下方空间松动。周内在内外盘铝流动性风险影响下走高，然而后续来看，预计短期内铸造铝合金价格在需求淡季下承压运行，空头思路为主。考虑历史季节性，月间结构在三季度呈现Back的确定性较强，上市初期市场参与者跨期正套头寸布局，近端结构走为Back，后仍可关注逢低介入跨期正套，预计于消费旺季期间兑现收益。通常情况下，ADC12-A00价差收敛，可以介入空AD多AL头寸，其背后驱动在于供应增加而需求支撑不足。金三银四电解铝消费旺季期间废铝新料供应边际增加，而ADC12需求端走向淡季，呈现供增需减格局。不过，当下该头寸盈亏比欠佳。三季度，汽车生产开始冲量，牵动ADC12需求正反馈，ADC12偏强于A00，可以提前布局多AD空AL头寸。精废价差回升ADC12-A00有望延续下滑趋势资料来源：SMM、钢联、同花顺、Bloomberg、国泰君安期货研究所铸造铝合金：消费淡季持续，价格震荡偏弱0.70.720.740.760.780.80.820.840.860.880.9-2000-1500-1000-500050010001500元/吨 ◆◆◆ 供应端——废铝01 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝产量处于高位，社会库存历史中高位3035404550556065707501-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨废铝_总量20212022202320242025010203040506070802021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-10万吨华东01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000废铝：出货量合计：中国2021202220232024202500.511.522.5301-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 1000020212022数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures废铝进口处于高位，但同比增速下滑日期铝废料及碎料进口（万吨）同比（%）铝废料及碎料累计进口（万吨）累计同比（%）2025-0318.34-0.7950.657.082025-0216.4439.9332.3112.132025-0115.87-7.0115.87-7.012024-1215.802.41178.151.742024-1113.83-21.45162.351.672024-1013.31-13.62148.524.542024-0913.20-9.55135.216.742024-0813.77-9.27122.008.872024-0713.52-8.89108.2311.712024-0613.96-14.1394.7115.442024-0515.4010.7580.7522.742024-0418.0539.6965.3525.960246810121416182001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨x 10000铝废料及碎料(76020000):进口数量:当月值202120222023202420250204060801001201401601802002021-092021-112022-01x 10000100012001400160018002000220024002600数据来源：同花顺、Fastmarkets、国泰君安期货研究所 供应端——再生铝02 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金价格短期小涨，ADC12-A00收敛显著数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所15000160001700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1104-2305-0805-2006-0106-1306-2507-0707-1907-3108-1208-2409-0509-1809-3010-1910-3111-1211-2412-0612-1812-30元/吨保太ADC122022202320242025-1500-1000-50005001600017000180001900020000210002200023000240002022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-032024-052024-072024-092024-112025-012025-032025-05元/吨元/吨保太ADC12-A00（右轴）保太ADC12A00-2000-1500-1000-50005001000150001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-29元/吨保太ADC12-A0020212022202302004006008001000120001-0201-1401-2602-0902-2103-0503-1703-2904-1104-2305-0805-2006-0106-1306-2507-0707-1907-31元/吨smm-保太202220232024 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金区域价差：西南表现偏弱，呈现一定季节性规律19000195002000020500210002150022000元/吨华东华南西南东北数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-300-200-100010020030040050060001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华东-西南20212022202320242025-400-200020040060080001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华南-西南20212022202320242025-200-100010020030040050001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨华东-华南20212022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造铝合金开工率小幅下调，月度开工处在历史低位30354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%中国再生铝分规模月度开工率：总开工率2021202220232024202525303540455055606501-0301-1301-2302-0502-1602-2703-0803-1603-2404-0204-1204-2004-2805-1105-1905-2706-0506-1406-2407-0607-1908-0208-1608-30%再生铝合金开工率202120222023202430354045505560657001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31%再生铝合金月度产量202320242025山西河南湖南安徽3.30%0.93%1.48%18.40%0.41%内蒙古青海四川贵州0.16%0.68%0.23%0.57%0.75%山东河北福建湖北3.51%1.87%1.89%7.52%8.36%云南上海广东江西0.82%1.82%18.88%6.24%0.00%再生铝合金月度产量占比数据来源：SMM、钢联、国泰君安期货研究所 Special report on Guotai Junan FuturesADC12成本以废铝为主，当下匡算平均陷入亏损1700018000190002000021000220002300001-0201-1401-2602-0802-2003-0403-1603-2804-1004-2205-0705-1905-3106-1206-2407-0607-1807-3008-1108-2309-0409-16元/吨铝合金总成本2022202320242025废铝90%硅2%铜3%天然气1%其他4%ADC12成本结构100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000280003000001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0904-2105-0605-1805-3006-1106-2307-0507-1707-2908-1008-2209-0309-1509-2710-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27元/吨不通氧553#硅(华东)-平均价202020212022202320242025数据来源：SMM、国泰君安期货研究所-800-600-400-20002004006008001000120001-0201-1301-2402-0502-1602-2703-1003-2104-0104-1304-2405-0805-1905-3006-1006-2107-0207-1307-2408-0408-1508-2609-0609-18元/吨ADC12利润2022202320242025 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures铸造合金显隐性库存累增151719212325272901-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31万吨再生铝合金厂区原料库存（月度）202220232024202500.511.522.533.501-0301-1301-2602-1402-2803-1003-2204-0404-1404-2605-0905-1705-2606-0306-1406-2407-0707-1907-2908-1108-2309-0209-1509-2710-1110-2111-0311-1511-2512-0812-20万吨铝合金锭：社会库存：中国（周）2022