贵金属年6月报：黄金高位震荡，白银开启补涨行情

投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785王工建wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301赵凯熙zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明核心观点及策略 2/16目录一、贵金属行情回顾.....................................................................................................................4二、贵金属价格影响因素分析......................................................................................................51、中美经贸关系缓和，其他经济体的谈判还具不确定性....................52、非农数据好于预期，降低美联储降息的紧迫性..........................53、美国经济走弱风险增加.............................................6三、市场结构及资金流向分析......................................................................................................81、金银比价变化.....................................................82、期现及跨期价差变化...............................................93、央行购金动向....................................................104、贵金属库存变化..................................................115、金银ETF持仓分析................................................126、CFTC持仓变化...................................................13四、行情展望及操作策略............................................................................................................14 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 3/16图表目录图表1近5年SHFE金银价格走势..............................................................................................4图表2近5年COMEX金银价格走势..........................................................................................4图表3金价与美元指数走势变化..................................................................................................4图表4金价与美债利率走势变化..................................................................................................4图表5主要经济体GDP增速变化................................................................................................6图表6美欧经济意外指数变化......................................................................................................6图表7美国ISM制造业PMI增速变化........................................................................................7图表8欧元区制造业PMI增速变化.............................................................................................7图表9美国职位空缺数变化..........................................................................................................7图表10美国周度初请和续请失业金人数....................................................................................7图表11美国非农就业人数和失业率变化....................................................................................7图表12美国时薪增速....................................................................................................................7图表13主要经济体CPI变化........................................................................................................8图表14美元PCE和核心PCE变化..............................................................................................8图表15美国通胀预期变化............................................................................................................8图表16美元指数与美元非商业性净头寸变化............................................................................8图表17 COMEX金银比价变化....................................................................................................9图表18沪期金银比价变化............................................................................................................9图表19沪期金与COMEX金价差变化........................................................................................9图表20沪期银与COMEX银价差变化........................................................................................9图表21 COMEX金与伦敦金价差..............................................................................................10图表22 COMEX银与伦敦银价差..............................................................................................10图表23主要央行黄金储备量......................................................................................................11图表24中国央行黄金储备变化..................................................................................................11图表25 COMEX贵金属库存变化..............................................................................................11图表26 COMEX黄金库存变化..................................................................................................12图表27 COMEX白银库存变化..................................................................................................12图表28上海黄金交易所白银库存变化......................................................................................12图表29上海期货交易所白银库存变化......................................................................................12图表30贵金属ETF持仓变化.....................................................................................................13图表31黄金ETF持仓变化.........................................................................................................13图表32白银ETF持仓变化.........................................................................................................13图表33 CFTC黄金白银非商业性持仓变化.................................