钢材年6月报-需求进入淡季，钢价震荡偏弱
敬请参阅最后一页免责声明核心观点及策略压。 投资咨询业务资格沪证监许可【2015】84号李婷021-68555105li.t@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0297587投资咨询号：Z0011509黄蕾huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F0307990投资咨询号：Z0011692高慧gao.h@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03099478投资咨询号：Z0017785王工建wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F3084165投资咨询号：Z0016301赵凯熙zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn从业资格号：F03112296投资咨询号：Z0021040 目录一、行情回顾...........................................................3二、钢材基本面分析.........................................................41、钢厂生产平稳，供应压力不减.................................................................................................42、钢材去库放缓，厂库转增.........................................................................................................53、需求进入淡季，压力增加....................................................64、外部风险仍然存在..........................................................7三、行情展望..............................................................10 敬请参阅最后一页免责条款 2/14图表目录图表1螺纹钢期货及月差走势.....................................................................................................3图表2热卷期货及月差走势.........................................................................................................3图表3螺纹钢现货地域价差走势..................................................................................................3图表4热卷现货南北价差.............................................................................................................3图表5螺纹钢周度产量.................................................................................................................4图表6热卷钢周度产量.................................................................................................................4图表7五大材周度产量.................................................................................................................5图表8华东地区钢厂长流程利润.................................................................................................5图表9螺纹钢社会库存..................................................................................................................5图表10螺纹钢钢厂库存................................................................................................................5图表11热卷社会库存....................................................................................................................6图表12热卷钢厂库存....................................................................................................................6图表13螺纹钢总库存....................................................................................................................6图表14热卷总库存.......................................................................................................................6图表15螺纹钢表观消费................................................................................................................7图表16全国建材周均成交量........................................................................................................7图表17热卷表观消费...................................................................................................................7图表18五大材表观消费...............................................................................................................7图表19房屋新开工、施工面积累计同比...................................................................................8图表20房屋新开工、施工面积当月同比...................................................................................8图表21商品房销售面积：期房与现房........................................................................................9图表22全国商品房待售面积.......................................................................................................9图表23固定资产投资三大分项累计同比增速...........................................................................9图表24固定资产投资完成额累计同比增速...............................................................................9图表25我国汽车产销量增速.......................................................................................................9图表26我国家电产量增速...........................................................................................................9图表27我国钢材进口增速.........................................................................................................10图表28我国钢材出口增速.........................................................................................................10 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明一、行情回顾5月钢材市场承压下行，螺纹钢与热卷期货双双刷新了年内新低。五一假期后，钢价冲高回落，震荡下跌，供需双弱主导，高炉开工率维持高位，电炉因亏损减产，需求端受房地产投资下滑压制，5月9日螺纹钢和热卷主力合约分别在前低附近获得支撑。5月12日中美关税谈判达成一致，超出市场预期，提振市场情绪，钢价反弹，但反弹周期仅有几天时间，资金表现谨慎，基本面压力不减，叠加钢材出口热度衰退，钢价反弹持续性有限。下半月，钢价在经历了多日窄幅震荡后，最终选择向下突破。除了供需两端偏弱，以及宏观利多兑现之外，成本端塌陷也是钢价走弱的重要原因。上个月焦炭、焦煤期货大幅下挫，长流程利润收缩至盈亏线附近，成本线不断下移。弱现实（淡季需求下滑）与弱预期（地产疲软+出口承压）共振，叠加高供应和成本松动，共同驱动钢价破位下行。6月供需矛盾或进一步累积。钢材期货10合约将会经历6-8月淡季和9-10月旺季，目前将进入雨季和高温季，供应端先后对应减产和复产的节奏变化，同时政策端干扰持续影响，海外压力不减。图表1螺纹钢期货及月差走势数据来源：iFinD，铜冠金源期货图表3螺纹钢现货地域价差走势数据来源：iFinD，铜冠金源期货RB2510-2601螺纹钢2510螺纹钢26012024-10-012025-01-01螺纹价差：上海-北京螺纹价差：上海-沈阳螺纹价差：广州-上海 3/14图表2热卷期货及月差走势图表4热卷现货南北价差-60-40-20020402025-05-1230003100320033003400350036002025-03-132025-05-12HC2510-2601热轧卷板2601热卷25102025-04-01-250-200-150-100-500501001502024-07-012024-10-012025-01-012
