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© 2024 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgSome rights reservedThis work is a product of The World Bank. The findings,interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work donot necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this workand does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liabilitywith respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. Theboundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply anyjudgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement oracceptance of such boundaries.The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorsesthe views expressed by those authors or the content of their works.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privilegesand immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of itsknowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as fullattribution to this work is given.Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2024. Jamaica Poverty Assessment. © World Bank.”Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications,The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org.Cover and interior photos: © World Bank. Further permission required for reuse.Cover design and typesetting: Kilka Diseño Grafico ContentsAcknowledgements. .... ....... ....... ...... ....... ...... ...... ....iixAbbreviations and Acronyms.........................................ixExecutive SummaryIntroduction1Trends in Poverty, Inequality, and Shared ProsperityLack of Sustained Poverty Reduction.......................................9Shared Prosperity and Inequality........................................12Drivers of Poverty Changes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14Risks and Challenges Ahead. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .182. Poverty ProfileGeographical Distribution of Poverty......................................22Individual and Household Characteristics of the Poor. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24Livelihoods and Sources of Income. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .26Non-Monetary Poverty..............................................303Human CapitalCurrent Stock and Quality of Human Capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .34Health and Nutritional Outcomes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .36Equity in Access to Education..........................................434Fiscal Incidence AnalysisThe Fiscal System in Jamaica: Tax Revenues and Expenditures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49Fiscal Incidence Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52Distributional Impacts of the Fiscal System in Jamaica............................53Effects of Taxes and Transfers..........................................54Incidence of Structural Social Spending. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .575Policy RecommendationsEconomic Transformation for Lasting Poverty Reduction...........................63 x1621334862 FiguresFigure 1.1: Poverty rate at national poverty line, 2000–2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8Figure 1.2: Real GDP growth rates in Jamaica, LAC, and Caribbean small states,2007-2021 (%, annualized). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Figure 1.3: GDP per capita (constant 2017 PPP $), 2000-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Figure 1.4: Semi-elasticity of poverty reduction, 2013-2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Figure 1.5: Semi-elasticity of poverty reduction, 1989-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10Figure 1.6: Divergence of survey mean consumption growth from national accounts in Jamaica(%, annualized), 2007-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .11Figure 1.7: Divergence of GDP