牙买加国家方案评估，201425财政年度（方法文件）（英）

JamaicaCountry Program Evaluation, Fiscal Years 2014–25 December 19, 2025 1.Evaluation Purpose and Audience 1.1This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of theWorld Bank Group’s support toJamaicafromFY 2014toFY25.The evaluationwill covertwoBank Groupstrategies,the Country PartnershipStrategy(CPS) from FY14to FY17,which was extended through FY19,and part of the ongoingCountry PartnershipFramework (CPF) fromFY24toFY27, as well as the period with nostrategy betweenFY20andFY23.The evaluation seeks to identify lessons to inform futureBank Groupengagement in support ofJamaica’s development priorities, including the next CPF,which isexpectedinFY28.The primary audience for the evaluation includes the BankGroup’s Boardof Executive Directors, managementand staff, thegovernmentofJamaica,and a broad set of in-country stakeholders.The evaluation’sfindings andlessons mayalsobe relevant to other countriesfacingsimilarcharacteristicsanddevelopment challenges.Public Disclosure Authorized 1.2This CPE willevaluatetwofocusareasof theBank Groupengagementthatarecritical to Jamaica’sdevelopment:(i)strengthening macrofiscal stabilityand publicsector resilienceand(ii)increasingthe resilience ofhouseholdsand communitiestoshocks.Thisevaluation willconsider theBank Groupengagement in the context ofanincreasingly complexdevelopment partner landscape where theBank Groupwas—untilrecently—the second-largestdevelopment partnerafter theInter-AmericanDevelopment Bank(IDB).It will assess how theBank Groupleveraged its comparativeadvantages to support macrofiscal stability, strengthen public sector resilience, andbolster the resilience of households and communities;evaluatethe coherence oftheBank Group’ssupport; and clarify theBank Group’s contributionto Jamaica’sbroaderdevelopment outcomes.These twofocusareas arecentralto advancing Vision 2030Jamaica,empowering Jamaicans to reach their full potential (goal1), building aprosperous economy (goal3), and sustaining a healthy natural environment (goal4).They mirror Jamaica’s core development challenges identified intheBank Group’sdiagnostics andanalytics of other partners. They alsoalign with the mainBank Groupengagement areasin thepast andreflect areas of strategic interestfor the next plannedCPF, asdiscussedwith theBank Group’sJamaica countrymanagement andteammembers.Public Disclosure AuthorizedPublic Disclosure Authorized 2.Country ContextandDevelopment Challenges Country Context 2.1Jamaica’s small open economy is highly susceptible to a wide range of shocks—from commodity priceandfinancialflowshocks to climate shocks—and is characterizedbypersistent structuralconstraintsto higher growth andresilience(World Bank2022).Jamaica hasexperiencedlong periodsoflow growth, high debt, andrecurringexternalshocks.Growth averaged 0.8percentbetween 2014 and 2024, which isbelow the LatinAmerica and theCaribbeanRegionaverage of 1.3percent.Thislow growthreflectslimited private investmentdue to a challenging business environment andhigh crimerates, high energycosts,andlow human capitaland innovation.These issues haveresulted in persistently weak productivity growth,keepingthe economyconcentratedinlow-productivity services, particularly tourism.Public investment has been restrainedby fiscal consolidation and high debt service costs.Jamaica is the third most exposedcountry in the world to environmental hazards and ranks in the global top 20 when itcomes to exposure to natural disasters (UNDRR2024).1The high frequency of climateshocks—including hurricanes, floods, and droughts—threatens potential growth andpoverty reduction gains.2Moreover, sudden stops in financial flows, includingremittances and foreign direct investment, tend to trigger orcoincide withcrisisepisodes.3 2.2Jamaica’s weak growth, persistent poverty, and high violence and crime rates areinterconnected.Crime is cited as the most problematic factor for doing business,depressing earnings, new investments, and job creation. Itis estimated to cost Jamaica4percent of GDP annually and affects the structure of the economy. For example,tourism is largely composed of enclave resortsbecause ofsafety concerns, limitingtourism-related value chain development. In turn, limited access to public services at thecommunity level, low education outcomes, and a lack of good quality jobs contribute topersistent poverty and raise the risk of crime, locking some communities in a cycle ofexclusion and reduced social resilience (World BankGroup2022). As a result, manyJamaican households (57percent) rely on remittances from foreign workers,representing, on average, 44percent of those household’s consumption. Development Challenges 2.3Jamaica’s macrofiscal framework remains vulnerable to external shocks despiteefforts to improve its resilience.Natural disasters represent a significant contingentliability, which can significantly affect government finances and increase debt while alsoleading to substantial asset losses (IMF 2018,2023;World Bank