博茨瓦纳贫困评估：为减少贫困和不平等开辟新道路

© [2024] International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000Internet: www.worldbank.orgThis work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, andconclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors,or the governments they represent.The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does notassume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use ofor failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, andother information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerningthe legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges andimmunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThe material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, thiswork may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given.Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The WorldBank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.orgCover design: Florencia Micheltorena RENEWING PATHWAYSfor Poverty andInequality Reduction ContentsExecutive Summary1Botswana’s macroeconomic context and recent labor market outcomes1.1Macroeconomic context and growth slowdown1.2Recent labor market trends2Progress in poverty reduction has slowed, and inequality remains high2.1Trends in poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity2.2Demographic, education, and labor market characteristics of the poor, near poor, and non-poor2.3Drivers of poverty and inequality3Non-monetary dimensions of poverty and inequality3.1Access to electricity and sanitation at the village level is low and highly unequal3.2Access to basic services increased in 2016 but some services remain low for anupper-middle-income country3.3Multidimensional poverty3.4Poorest locations face higher risk from natural hazards4Social protection in COVID times: Responses and lessons learned4.1The pre-COVID-19 social protection system4.2Social protection policy responses to COVID-194.3Assessment of responses4.4COVID-19 and longer-term reforms5Policy considerations for poverty and inequality reductionAppendixesAppendix 1Structural PeersAppendix 2Population Pyramid 2022Appendix 3Probability of Being EmployedAppendix 4Earnings regressionAppendix 5Population distribution from Population and Housing Census 2001, 2011, 2022Appendix 6Maps of villages by decilesAppendix 7Redefining Employment in BotswanaAppendix 8Technical report on Botswana’s household surveys and the creation of a comparablespatially-deflated consumption aggregateAppendix 9Botswana SWIFT Poverty Projections for 2019-2022 vii12512131925293032384144454648505157585960616263646782 List of FiguresFigure E.1Poverty reduction has slowedFigure E.2Economic growth has slowed and become more volatileFigure E.3Poverty is high relative to incomeFigure E.4Rural households fared worse than urban across the consumption distributionFigure E.5Botswana faces high levels of multidimensional poverty relative to some peersFigure E.6Its Human Capital Index is low relative to its GDP per capita, 2020Figure E.7Electrification rates have improved more in the northeast and southeast,while gaps between rich and poor villages remain largeFigure 1.1Economic growth has slowed and become more volatileFigure 1.2Wholesale and retail trade has seen strong growth but remains far behind miningand public administration value addedFigure 1.3Reaching high-income status requires a significant, sustained boost in economic growthFigure 1.4GDP per capita is higher than among structural peers but below the UMIC averageFigure 1.5Labor Market Trends, 2002-2021Q4 (%)Figure 1.6Labor Market Trends, 2010-2022Q4 (%)Figure B1.1Comparable labor force statistics show increasing labor force participation andunemployment rates, while employment rates stagnateFigure 1.7Lack of transition out of agriculture while employment in services has grownFigure 1.8Employment in Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (2016-2022)Figure 1.9Employment and Value Added (2022)Figure 1.10Share of workers by type of employment, 2009-2022 (%)Figure 1.11Employment by type of worker, 2009-2022Figure 1.12Public-private wage gap, 2016-2022 (ratio)Figure 1.13Average monthly real wages by sector and area, 2016-2022 (constant 2010 Pula)Figure 2.1Poverty reduction has slowedFigure 2.2