有色金属铝月度报告：贸易摩擦反复，供需驱动有限

2025年6月2日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分一、行情回顾..........................................................................................................................................................................-5-二、成本：铝土矿供应短期存扰动，电解铝生产利润仍可观.........................................................................................-5-三、供给：电解铝产量增幅放缓，净进口量环比呈增加.................................................................................................-9-3.1铝生产利润可观，但供给约束犹存......................................................................................................................-9-3.2铝进口延续倒挂，进口以俄铝为主....................................................................................................................-11-3.3铝供给同比续增，后续增幅或放缓....................................................................................................................-12-四、需求：贸易摩擦存反复，淡季铝材开工降...............................................................................................................-12-4.1初端加工：铝材整体开工降，不同铝材有分化................................................................................................-12-4.2终端消费：终端表现分化，后续预期谨慎........................................................................................................-14-五、库存：铝锭社库低位，沪铝近强远弱.......................................................................................................................-17-六、展望................................................................................................................................................................................-19-图1：沪铝加权日线图.....................................................................-5-图2：铝矿砂及其精矿进口数量.............................................................-6-图3：铝矿砂及其精矿进口数量：分国别.....................................................-6-图4：铝土矿港口库存.....................................................................-6-图5：氧化铝企业铝土矿库存...............................................................-6-图6：国产铝土矿价格.....................................................................-7-图7：进口铝土矿价格.....................................................................-7-图8：中国冶金级氧化铝产量...............................................................-7-图9：中国冶金级氧化铝产能利用率.........................................................-7-图10：海外冶金级氧化铝产量..............................................................-7-图11：中国氧化铝净进口数量..............................................................-7-图12：中国氧化铝港口库存................................................................-8-图13：中国电解铝厂氧化铝厂内库存........................................................-8-图14：中国（除新疆）氧化铝厂内库存......................................................-8-图15：中国氧化铝库存....................................................................-8-图16：电解铝冶炼利润....................................................................-8-图17：氧化铝生产利润....................................................................-8-图18：中国电解铝产量....................................................................-9-图19：中国电解铝产能利用率..............................................................-9-图20：云南降水量........................................................................-9-图21：白鹤滩水库水位：08时.............................................................-9-图22：溪洛渡水库水位：08时............................................................-10-图23：溪洛渡水库出库流量：08时........................................................-10-图24：向家坝水库水位：08时............................................................-10-图25：向家坝水库出库流量：08时........................................................-10-图26：云南水力发电发电量...............................................................-10-图27：云南发电量.......................................................................-10-图28：中国电解铝产量：周...............................................................-10- 融通社会财富·创造多元价值-2- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分融通社会财富·创造多元价值-3-图29：中国电解铝铝水比例...............................................................-10-图30：全球原铝产量.....................................................................-11-图31：全球原铝产量（除中国）...........................................................-11-图32：电解铝现货进口利润...............................................................-11-图33：电解铝净进口量...................................................................-11-图34：未锻压铝及废铝净进口.............................................................-11-图35：铝材及铝制品净出口...............................................................-11-图36：国内电解铝供给...................................................................-12-图37：中国铝材产量.....................................................................-12-图38：铝型材开工率.....................................................................-12-图39：铝型材产量.......................................................................-12-图40：铝板带箔开工率...................................................................-13-图41：铝板产量.........................................................................-13-图42：铝杆开工率.......................................................................-13