ProSiebenSat.1传媒（PSM）：年度股东大会及模型更新

F25E3.28.83.28.830 May 20257.84/4.501,432.596M52.216.136.106/2512001300140015001600 Prosiebensat1 MediaRatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetPSM.GR7.00 EURAdjusted EPSF24AF25EPSM.GR (EUR)2.210.80OLD--0.76Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.ProSieben: AGM and Model updateContrary to expectations, the PSM AGM ended up being free of drama and most topics onthe agenda have been agreed on with a significant majority including the PSM-backed newChairwoman. We also update our model for 1Q results and a softer ad market/Dating segment.We keep the MP with an unchanged TP reflecting the PPF offer price.Investment ImplicationsAGM with no dramaThe ProSieben AGM last week was less eventful than anticipated asshareholders PPF and MFE seem to have voted in synch on most topic of the agenda andMaria Kyriacou, was appointed new Chairwoman of the Supervisory Board of ProSiebenSat.1Media at >98% approval rate despite MFE having suggested its opposition against thecandidate in the press previously (ProSieben - The market appears to believe the sagais not over yet). The three agenda items that did not receive the required approval fromshareholders were: a new authorization to acquire and use of treasury shares, a newauthorization of the use of derivatives in connection with the acquisition of treasury sharesand the creation of new authorized capitalOffer update - Market seems to price in the PPF offerWe’d anticipate the PPF offer to golive this week (Quick Take: ProSieben - Plot Twist). We also note that the offer of MFE (QuickTake: MFE launches voluntary public takeover offer to increase stake in ProSieben) shouldexpire on June 6thbut the group has an option to extend its offer up until July 2nd. This shouldalso be the end of the offer period of PPF.Reiterate Market-PerformWe update our models for 1Q results (Quick Take: Germanbroadcasters 1Q results reflect as expected a weak domestic TV ad market — FY outlooksreiterated). We take our ajd. EBITDA a touch below the mid-point guidance on the back of asoft 1Q TV ad market and also soft 2Q expectations. We also reduce our expectations for theDating segment. This is more than compensated on the EPS level as we lower the tax rateof the group (as it will be able to use the tax losses of Joyn). We note the company has notyet given guidance regarding the actual tax level. Despite the EPS changes our TP remainsunchanged as it reflects the offer price of PPF (see links above).See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 05:00 UTC Completion Date: 02 Jun 2025 15:55 UTC F26E7.47.47.047.00(1)%Dec0.7%1,6173,46612M(7.2)11.2(18.4) F26E0.950.90FinancialsReported EPSRevenues (M)EBITDA (incl income fromassociates) F24A2.213,918557.0 F25EF26E0.800.953,8473,873513.0543.0 DETAILSEXHIBIT 1:News vs Old estimates (EURm)€m unless otherwise statedEntertainmentCommerceDatingTotal revenuesEntertainmentCommerceDatingAdj EBITDAAdj net incomeEPS (€)DPS (€)Source: Bernstein analysis and estimatesEUROPEAN MEDIA APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTSEXHIBIT 2:ProSieben summary financialsEURm unless otherwise stated2023Entertainment2574Advertising2116Commerce844Dating434Revenues3852% change-7%Entertainment473Commerce59Dating72Holding & other-26Recurring EBITDA578% margin15%% change-15%EBIT-86Adj. net income225EPS (EUR)0.99Net debt1546Source: company reports, Bernstein estimates and analysisEUROPEAN MEDIA BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingPSM.GRMOLDEDMESTIMATE CHANGE IN BOLDO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedSource: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.EUROPEAN MEDIA I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURESReferences to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,C. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited andSanford C. Bernstein Japan KKOn April 1, 2024, Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB) completed a transaction that created a new joint venturein which their respective cash equities and research businesses operate in a new business combination. Although their respectiveownership percentages in the joint venture differ between North America and the rest of the world, the creation, production andpublication of research is handled collaboratively on a global basis across the two research brands, “Bernstein” and “Autonomous”.Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG andAB and their respective affiliates.VALUATION METHODOLOGYProsiebensat1 MediaOur PT