每日加拿大人2025年6月4日

John Aiken, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7376 | jaiken@jefferies.comJoe Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7396 | jng4@jefferies.comAria Samarzadeh, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7398 | asamarzadeh@jefferies.comSource: FactSet, Jefferies Macroeconomic/GlobalBank of Canada Expected to Hold Policy Rate as Bar to Cut is'Quite High'(FP) Yesterday, theFinancial Post highlighted that economists expect the Bank of Canada will maintain its cautiousapproach by holding its policy rate in place later this morning, as it continues to assess the impactof U.S. President Trump's trade war on the Canadian economy. Canada’s central bank remains ina tight spot, as it weighs the upside risks to inflation against the downside risks to growth broughton by U.S. tariffs. In April, core measures of inflation ran above three per cent and GDP for the firstquarter came in better than expected, at an annual rate of 2.2%, higher than the 1.8% Bank of Canadaforecast. While the headline number was positive, much of the growth was driven by exports andinventory building, as businesses raced to get ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcementsat the beginning of the year. Under the surface, final domestic demand was flat and residentialinvestment contracted. A flash estimate for April by Statistics Canada showed the economy grewat a monthly rate of 0.1%. On the jobs front, data in April also showed a deterioration in the labourmarket brought on by the trade war. The unemployment rate rose to 6.9% during the month, asemployment in the manufacturing sector fell by 31,000 due to tariff uncertainty. Economists expectthe jobless rate to peak above seven per cent this year. Last Friday, President Trump threatenedto double tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, a reminder that uncertainty brought on by erratictariff announcements by the U.S. administration continues. And this uncertainty, is muddying growthtrajectories for the Canadian economy.Fallout from Trump Trade War Takes Toll on U.S. Economy, OECD Says, as It Lowers GlobalOutlook(Reuters) Yesterday, Reuters reported that in the latest report by the Organization forEconomic Cooperation and Development, global economic growth is slowing more than expectedonly a few months ago as the fallout from the Trump administration’s trade war takes a bigger toll onthe U.S. economy. In its report, the OECD said on Tuesday, it's revising down its outlook, as it believesthe global economy is on course to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, trimming itsestimates from March for growth of 3.1% this year and 3.0% next year. But the growth outlook wouldlikely be even weaker if protectionism increases, further fueling inflation, disrupting supply chainsand rattling financial markets, says the OECD."Additional increases in trade barriers or prolonged policyuncertainty would further lower growth prospects and likely push inflation higher in countries imposingtariffs."The OECD is forecasting the U.S. economy would grow only 1.6% this year and 1.5% nextyear, assuming for the purpose of making calculations that tariffs in place mid-May would remainso through the rest of 2025 and 2026. For Canada, the OECD projects that economic growth willslow from 1.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026 because of trade tensions with the U.S.,long its largest export market. The organization also expects that business investment and exportswill decline this year, and that a weak labour market will weigh on Canadian households' spendingbehaviour.'Unlawful and Unjustified': PMO Responds to Trump Doubling Steel, Aluminum Tariffs(BBG) U.S.President Donald Trump issued an executive order to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports,from all countries, including Canada. The tariffs are set to take effect today. In a statement Tuesdaynight, the Prime Minister's Office called the additional tariffs on steel and aluminum"unlawful andunjustified". In 2024, Canada exported $12.1 billion in iron and steel, with more than 91% going tothe U.S., while exports of aluminum totaled $14.1 billion, with 94% of that destined for the U.S."Canada’s new government is engaged in intensive and live negotiations to have these and other tariffsremoved as part of a new economic and security partnership with the United States,"the statement said.The PMO added that every dollar collected from Canada’s retaliatory tariffs over $90 billion, beforeremissions, will go to"supporting Canadian workers and businesses impacted by the harmful U.S. tariffs.We are fighting to get the best deal for Canada, and we will take the time necessary, but no longer,"thePMO said. Canada-U.S. Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc told reporters on Tuesday that his latestPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. conversation with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was"positive, and I’m hopeful that wecan get to the best outcome for Ca