每日加拿大人2025年5月16日

John Aiken, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7376 | jaiken@jefferies.comJoe Ng, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7396 | jng4@jefferies.comAria Samarzadeh, CFA * | Equity Analyst(416) 847-7398 | asamarzadeh@jefferies.comSource: Canadian Real Estate Association, Jefferies total manufacturing sales fell 1.1 per cent in March. In a separate report, Stats Can says wholesalesales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed andgrain, rose 0.2% to $86.5 billion in March.Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Coverage UniverseSLF: Sun Life CFO 'Very Pleased' with Q1 Results Bolstered by Strong International Growth(BBG)In an interview with Bloomberg BNN, Sun Life CFO Tim Deacon said the insurer, which beat firstquarter earnings last week, is delivering on its growth strategy, particularly in the company’s maininternational markets in the U.S. and Asia. "We were very pleased with our first quarter results, infact we had record underlying net income for the quarter and that was contributed across all ofour geographies and business segments. We also had record earnings in Asia and strong growth inCanada and the U.S." Mr. Deacon also noted that Sun Life’s income was boosted by strength in itsgrowing asset management business, which includes both private and public assets. When it comesto Sun Life’s objectives moving forward, Mr. Deacon said the company’s first priority is to reinvestinto growth areas like digital and artificial intelligence, and the second is to maintain a dividendpayout ratio between 40% to 50% of underlying net income. "And then the third would be inorganicdeployments," he said, "whether that’s M&A (mergers and acquisitions) or share buybacks."Macroeconomic/GlobalOntario Expects Budget Deficit to More Than Double in Face of U.S. Tariffs(Reuters) Yesterday,Reuters reported that Ontario, Canada's most populous province and manufacturing hub of thecountry, is forecasting its widest budget deficit since the height of the pandemic, more than doublingin size, and a slower move into surplus as it increased spending to support the economy in atrade war with the U.S. Ontario sends more than three-quarters of its exports to the United States,including autos, steel and aluminum, which are facing hefty U.S. duties. The province said its deficitwould increase to C$14.6 billion ($10.4 billion), or 1.2% of gross domestic product, in the currentfiscal year, its widest by far since 2020-21, from an estimated C$6 billion in 2024-25. The fiscal yearbegan on April 1. Further, a deficit is also expected in 2026-27, of C$7.8 billion, before a shift intosurplus in 2027-28, one year later than was projected in a fiscal update in October. A C$2 billionreserve is set aside in each fiscal year. On growth, the province is forecasting its economy to slowto 0.8% this year from 1.5% in 2024. As a result, Ontario forecasts that its net debt-to-GDP ratio willrise to 37.9% in the current fiscal year from its lowest in more than a decade of 36.3% in 2024-25. Afurther increase to 38.9% is expected in 2026-27 before dipping to 38.6% in 2027-28.Free Month's Rent, Parking Spaces and Utilities: Landlords are Clamouring to Attract Tenants(G&M) Yesterday, the Globe and Mail reported that realtors say an increasing numbers of landlordsare offering promotions such as a free month of rent, subscriptions and complimentary parkingspaces in a bid to attract tenants during a slow market. It’s a sign that concerns about the Canadianeconomy and a surge in new condo completions this year are making it difficult to find renters. Whilethe promotions are mostly being offered in larger cities like Vancouver and Toronto where demandis particularly low, realtors are also seeing these offers in some smaller cities like London, Ontario.Some of the promotions realtors have seen include: two months of free rent, cash rebates of up to$1,000, free parking and free subscriptions to services like internet and cable. A study in April byUrbanation found vacancy rates for purpose built rentals completed since 2000 reached 3.7% in theGreater Toronto and Hamilton areas for the first quarter of 2025. That’s compared to 2.6% in the firstquarter of 2024. The report also found that the number of available condo rental listings was 29%higher than a year ago and 160% higher than two years ago. The vast majority of promotion offersare for new condos and townhomes, where investors are under the most pressure, although realtorssay these incentives are available across many different property types. Realtors add that landlords,who previously took their time to choose a tenant and sometimes hoped for a bidding war, are nowjumping on their first applicant. Even though rental rates have been consistently dropping for morethan two years in Vancouver and Toronto, rates remain much higher than they were prior to 2021.M