美洲外汇早报

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.FX markets in a holding pattern ahead of US NFP data Fridayand possible trade talks between Trump and XiBoC may cut 25bp today, according to our economists, thoughconsensus is for no changeEUR slightly up ahead of German fiscal plans, mixed PMIsA fragile optimism is being maintainedacross markets, with equities in the greenand modest gains by “risk on” currencies.The DXY USD index is marginally softerwhile 10-year UST yields are a tick higher at 4.46%. Markets may stay in a holdingpattern in the near term as we await Friday’s US NFP labor market data(followingpositive job openings data yesterday)and potential talks between presidents Trump andXi on trade. In a social media post overnight, President Trumpcommentedthat China’sleader was “VERYTOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKEA DEAL WITH”.Whilethe White House has indicateditexpectsa call between the two leaders to occur later thisweek, China’sofficials have yet to confirm this (Bloomberg).Today in theUS,on the data front we getMayADP Employmentat 8.15am NY,final May PMIs at 8.30am and then the May ISM Services data at 10am.The Fedalso releases its Beige Book at 2pm. The ISM data may be most relevant for themarket given services account for a far larger portion of US GDP than manufacturingdoes. The consensus for the main index is for a modest lift from 51.6 to 52.0,although the new orders component is expected to dip modestly, while theemployment sub-index is expected to stay flat, according to consensus.That said, wewould note that the ISM Employment index tends to show much higher volatilityrelative to the non-farm payroll data.Our economists look for a 25bp cut from the BoC today,whiletwo-thirdsofconsensus looks for no change.Canada’s economic outlook remains ambiguous,not least due to ongoing uncertainties over US tariffs. This is particularly truefollowing the recent ruling bythe US Court of International Tradeagainst some newUS tariffs. As the effects of higher tariffs start to show in the hard data, oureconomists believe businesses may begin to cut jobs and consumers could pareback spending in response to uncertainty. They look for the BoC to cut its policy rateby 25bp to 2.50% today, although they expect this will mark the end of the cuttingcycle. The majority of respondents in Bloomberg’s survey expect no change, and soa cut could see some modest CAD weakness following the decision.EUR-USD is a touch firmer today, likely in part due to optimism ahead ofGermany’s fiscal plans.The German government is set to provide more detail on aEUR46bn corporate tax package (FT, 4 June 2025) that many hope will helpresuscitate economic growth.Optimism, however, was more obvious in the Germanstock market,where the DAX climbed to a record high.Americas FX Morning Bullets4 June 2025 ◆◆◆ Finaleurozone PMIs showed a mixed picture across the region.On aggregate, theeurozone economy remains close to stagnation with S&P Global composite PMI edging up to50.2, slightly better than the 49.5 flash estimate but still a three-month low. Southern Europelooks more promising, once again outperforming the North, with Italian and Spanish compositePMIs at 52.5 and 51.5, respectively, while Germany and French remain stuck below 50. Italianservices PMI, in particular, perked up to 53.2, the highest in nearly a year, in contrast toGermany where services PMI hit a 30-month low. Insum, theeurozone business outlookremains highly uncertain. US trade policy weighs on European business sentiment but thecombination of German fiscal expansion and looser ECB policy provide some offset.In the UK, services PMI surprised on the upside, helping to push GBP-USD a little higher.Business optimism rebounded from a two-and-a-half-year low in a Liberation-Day-impactedApril. Improved sentiment may reflect more positive trade news, with the UK agreeing tradedeals with the US, EU and India in May. Whether this optimism is justified remains to be seen,with new orders still in decline and higher labour costs holding back new employment.AUD-USD briefly dipped after Australian Q1 GDP surprised on the downside slowing to 0.2%QoQ(vs 0.4% consensus, from 0.6% in Q4). On a YoY basis, GDP slowed to 1.3% (vs 1.5%consensus, from 1.3% in Q4). As HSBC economics noted, “Growth remains weak; productivity stilldismal.” Nevertheless, AUD-USD perked up later in the day, reflecting broader relief across Asianequity markets after US JOLTS job openings on Tuesday offered signs of US economic resilience.Poland’s central bank is expected to maintain rates unchanged at their policy decisiontoday,according to our economists and consensus.One argument for anongoing pause is thatthe outlook for headline inflation also hinges on the new electricity tariff to kick in from October,with the announcement due only in late summer/September. This justifies a pause near ter