美洲外汇早报

CurrenciesGlobal Americas FX Morning Bullets 16 May 2025 ◆USD consolidates as it awaits (mostly) second-tier data Daragh MaherHead of Digital Assets Research, Sr FX StrategistHSBC Bank plcdaragh.maher@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 8888 ◆US inflation expectations noteworthy despite Fedcomfort ◆FX may be a US-Japan topic, but unprovocative for now Clyde WardleSenior EM FX StrategistHSBC Securities (USA) Inc.clyde.wardle@us.hsbc.com+1 646 610 3260 The USD is a little weaker this morning but this remains a marketstruggling fordirection after the drama of April.Lower US bond yields and higher US equityfutures provide a neat and conventional explanation for this morning’s USD dip.Perhaps it means things are returning to normal in terms of drivers to FX after thebreakdown in many correlations during April. Fornow, the USD continues to operateat a justifiable discount to rate differentials with trade uncertainty still high. PresidentTrump indicated he would set tariffs for US trading partners over the next “twoto threeweeks” (Bloomberg) as direct negotiations with all those affectedarenot possiblelogistically. Markets could be forgiven for wondering was this not what the Presidentdid on 2 April? In any event, optimists will hope that it will bring more clarity about thenew US trade policy framework and allow markets to accurately gauge the impact. It is a busy day for mostly second-tier US data releases, but the University ofMichigan consumer confidence survey is worth a watch.This survey perhapsbest captured the deterioration in economic expectations prompted by thetumultuousarrival of US trade policy changes. Expectations for activity plummeted while thosefor inflation soared. Chair Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference thatmedium-term inflation expectations remain anchored. He presumably was notreferencing thissurvey as it shows5-10Y inflation expectations are now at 4.4%compared to 3.0% at the start of year.Perhaps he prefers the NY Fed measurewhich showed 5Y ahead inflation expectations dipped 0.2ppt in April to 2.7%. Marketpricing for the Fed policy rate at year-end 2024 has priced out about 10bp of easingover the last week, but some dovishness in pricing has crept back in during thepast36 hours. Those doves will not have liked the suggestion from the Fed’s Bostic thismorning that he favours just one more policy rate cut this year. In our newly releasedFX Tactician, we lay out the case for further near-termconsolidation in core G10 FX, but some excitement on the crosses.US-Chinatrade news will likely be quieter during negotiations. There is scope for USD-bullishprogress on greater trade policy clarity. The USD bounce in May has also dented thestructural USD decline thesis. “Not being the USD” is no longer sufficient reason tobuy the EUR. Absent speculative flows, rates may get more traction, which could actas a headwind to the EUR. Also, a US-EU trade deal is likely to be slow to arrive.Wehaveopened a new trade idea, Buy AUD-CHF @ 0.5380with a target of 0.5590and stop-loss of 0.5280.The SNB is likely to leave the door open to negative ratesafter a possible cut to 0.0% next month. The central bank could alsointervene in FXmarket if necessary. On the other hand, the AUD should benefit from less downwardpressure on the regional growth outlook, favourably ‘unstretched’ positioning and ittracks cheap on our valuation metrics. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com USD-JPY failed to extend below 145 overnight, but the reversal of Monday’s surge is nonetheless complete.Overnight,the Bank of Japan’sboard member Toyoaki Nakamuramade more characteristicallydovish comments,which had a modest weakening impact on theJPY. He mentioned that the BoJ should pause monetary tightening as higher tariffs could derailJapan’s growth prospects.His view was somewhat validated by the GDP data releasedovernight for 1Q25, which showed the economy shrank for the first time in a year, although thedetail showed domestic demand remains firm.Japanese Finance Minister Kato mentioned thathe had confirmed with Scott Bessent in his meeting on24April, that excessive FX volatility islikely to harm the Japanese economy, and the currency should be market driven.This is astandard narrative,but one market interpretation could be that it is JPY positive that FX wasdiscussed at all (and will likely be discussed again in future). Alternatively, it also suggests arather familiar tone to those discussions that should be unprovocative for the JPY. Theovernight consolidation in USD-JPY suggests the latter interpretation wonout. EUR-USD continues to oscillate around 1.12 after its brief excursion lower earlier in theweek.The market is priced for 23bp