美洲外汇早报

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.FX moves lack conviction, simply reversing yesterday’s moodEUR lower post-CPI data; GBP dips on BoErhetoricAUD weakens on China data and RBA minutesThe lack of real conviction in the FX market remains evident, with thin newssimply fostering a modest overnight reversal of yesterday’s moves.The DXYindex is a little higher, with the EUR dented by softer CPI and GBP down a bit onBoE rhetoric. The bigger declines were seen in the AUD and NZD, yesterday’s mainwinners, so the market is simply in “dollar on/dollar off” mode without wanting tobreach new levels for now.Instead, the market has to wait for the next ‘big thing’ togive it direction. Two possible triggers loom large. The first is whether there will be acall between Presidents Trump and Xi, and whether it helps to cool trade tensions.The second is whether the employment report on Friday delivers a major surprisethat might jolt the Fed out of its patient rhetoric. Today brings a different jolt with theJOLTS data for April, a month ‘out of date’ relative to May’s data arriving on Friday,but still relevant. We continue to believe the magnetic pull of 100 on the DXY isstrong, and look for the USD to remain caught in a 98-102 range for now.The EUR is somewhat weaker after preliminary inflation data showed a greaterthan expected deceleration during May. The headline rate slowed from 2.2% YoYin April to 1.9% (consensus 2.0%). Core inflation dropped from 2.7% to 2.3%(consensus 2.4%), while service sector inflationfellfrom 4.0% to 3.2%. The marketwas already fully priced for a rate cut in June and another 25bp during H2 25, andthis data has not moved the needle on those expectations. However, the softer thanexpected outcome does help boost confidence that those expectations will provevalid, and perhaps that is why the EUR has dipped a little. The deceleration ininflation may also help prompt a bigger downward revision in the ECB’s inflationforecast when it reveals its new projections atthe upcoming meeting. This couldboost the case of those arguing that the policy rate should move below neutral. Butthe real key for EUR-USD is whether rate differentials can get traction again,because if they do, the EUR is looking decidedly expensive.Plentiful BoE rhetoric has seen GBP weaken this morning, with a divided BoEstill inclined to deliver more easing. Four MPC members spoke to the UK’sTreasury Committee, covering the range of opinions at the BoE. The labour marketwas a clear focus determining the attitudes of the respective policymakers, and thecharacterisation was less about a divided committee, and more about agreeing todisagree. In the end, Governor Bailey said the pathforrates remains downwards, butthe extent and pace is uncertain. UK rate expectations moved dovishly in response,with the probability of an August cut moving from 50% yesterday to 60% thismorning.This provides a neat explanation for the dip in GBP today,but the likelihoodis that the decline was mostly just the mirror to the modest improvement in USDsentiment this morningrather than anything UK-based.Americas FX Morning Bullets3 June 2025 ◆◆◆ AUD-USD eased overnight against a stronger USD, and following weakening Chinese data.China’s manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in May–the lowest since September 2022. While thedecline might be attributed to the higher tariffs taking a toll on exporters, signs of weakeningdemand for Chinese goods does not bode well for theAUDgiven Australia’s strong trade ties withChina.Interestingly, however, the Hong Kong stock market was stronger, perhaps anticipatingsome policy stimulus from China given the weak data. The AUD seemed less inclined to believed“bad news is good news”. Meanwhile,minutes from the RBA meeting also helpedweaken the AUD.The minutes confirmed that an outsized 50bp cut was considered during the last meeting,highlighting the central bank’s focus on the Australian economy’s vulnerability to global tradeuncertainties. RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter also remarked overnight that global tradeuncertainty will likely weigh on the country’s economic growth andjobs outlook. It is worthmentioning that swap markets are now pricing in three additional rate cuts for the year.Swiss inflation data for May was in line with consensus, confirming a drop below zero in theheadline rate. While this might make for excitable headlines, the SNB has indicated that it is willingto look through short-term moves in inflation so long as it is likely to be line withitsmandate overthe medium term.The market is priced for 32bp of easing at the June meeting, suggesting someflirtation with the idea that the central bank could cut by 50bp. This seems unlikely, not leastbecause the SNB has indicated that it is not a fan of negative rates, though it is willing to deliverthem if necessary. A 25bp cut with an indication