美洲外汇早报

Disclaimer & DisclosuresThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer,which forms part of it.USDfinds support after court rulingssowtariff uncertaintyPrice pressures ease in Europe ahead of ECB meetingBudget bill taxon foreign-owned USassets a risk to USDTheUSDfound support Friday after a dramatic sell-off on Thursday.The USCourt of Appeals ruled that President Trump’s tariffs can stay in place, at least fornow.Manytariffs are already onpause sothe immediate impactmay provelimited.Nevertheless, it isa legal ‘win’ forthe presidentaftertheprevioussetback.OnWednesday,theUS Court of International Trade ruled tariffs imposed on the basis ofa national emergency were unlawful and should be removed within ten days. Itseems likely that the Supreme Court will be called upon to clear up the matter. In themeantime, the rulingsadd to the uncertainty in financial markets and are likely tocomplicate ongoing trade talks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted thattrade talks with China have stalled. However,talks with several other countries areclose to completion.Consumer price inflation slowed in Spain and Italy on Friday.Spanish headlineCPI slowed to 1.9% YoY in May (below 2.0% consensus, and from 2.2% in April),whileItalian CPI slowed to 1.9% YoY (in line with consensus, and from 2.0%).German CPIwillfollow later today with lower energy prices expected to slow prices. The data mayadd a slight dovish tinge next week’s ECB meeting,although the data comes too late tobe includedin the updated macroeconomic forecasts. Nevertheless, HSBC economistsexpect GDPand inflation forecasts to be revised slightly lower. The ECB is widelyexpected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.0%, in the middle of the ECB’s 1.75% to 2.25%neutral rate range. The outlook beyond June remains highly uncertain, given US tradepolicy,and will depend on the resilience on the Eurozone economy. Next week’s PMIdata will indicate how well the bloc is faring.Section 899 of president Trump’s budget bill has attracted attention in themedia today.According totheFT, it would enable the US Treasury to imposepenalties on so-called “applicable persons” from “ discriminatory foreign countries” byincreasing US federal income tax and withholding rates by up to 20 percentagepoints.A tax on foreigninvestors is a further reason to be wary of US assets. It’slikely to negatively affect foreign interestin US assets and would likely weighontheUSD, proving morepositivefor the currencies of countries most affected,such asEUR, GBP, CADandAUD.However, it’sunclear if it will still be around in the finalversion post-Senate.PresidentTrump has shown sensitivity to higher treasury yieldswhich could potentially lead to an exclusion from any new tax.Americas FX Morning Bullets30 May 2025 ◆◆◆ USD-BRL is treading water in relatively narrow ranges as the market watches the politicalscuffles in Brasilia over the recent IOF tax increases.Congress is unhappy about thegovernment’s decree to raise IOF taxes, and is pushing to cancel them. The taxes wereimposed on company loans, remittances abroad, on the purchase of currency and oninternational cards, while a 3.5% proposed tax on sending funds for international investmentswas reversed (after a negative market reaction from that aspect of the decree). The goal was toraise BRL20bn in 2025 and double that amount next year. Congress is pushing to revoke thedecree (in both the upper and lower house), with members of Congress urging EconomyMinister Haddad to find a medium-to-long-term solution to the country’s funding shortfall thatavoids these (regressive) IOF taxes. Haddad has said there is no alternative to the decree toimpose the taxes, due to short-term funding needs (O Globo). Meanwhile, the agri-businesscaucus in the lower house is threatening to push a legislative decree nullifying the IOF tax hike(GlobalSource). Stepping back, the market is viewing this skirmish between the government andCongress cautiously. The bigger picture is that it’s positive that efforts are being made to meetfiscal targets, whether via higher revenues or frozen spending. We just need to see the outcomeand the net effect on the budget. For now, we take a cautiously positive view on the BRL, but ifthe IOF tax revenues are cancelled (via Congress), then we will need to see how thegovernment reacts to plug this revenue gap. Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s)appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews or forecasts expre