WEB旅游集团（WEB AU）

2026E2027E392.5451.4154.3195.7126.1164.791122FY24AFY25A% chgJEF FY25E3,9944,86822%4,9853263281%3288.2%6.7%-17%6.6%161139-14%14149.3%42.3%-14%42.9%137116-16%11442.1%35.2%-16%34.6%9962-37%7000na406127-69%299FY27EFY27E% chgOldNew% chgOldNew6%6,4226,9448%na7,9866%4174518%na5190%6.5%6.5%0%na6.5%-1%1591653%na205-8%124122-1%na155-1%28306%na380%6.06.00%na7.0 2028E519.1238.7204.6155% Dif-2%0%2%-2%-2%2%2%-11%0na-57%% chgnanananananana John Campbell * | Equity Analyst+61 439052387 | jcampbell1@jefferies.comTom Chapman * | Equity Analyst+61 438499671 | tom.chapman@jefferies.comWei Sim * | Equity Analyst+61 477773438 | wei.sim@jefferies.comMichael Simotas * | Equity Analyst61 2 9364 2994 | msimotas@jefferies.comJennifer Xu * | Equity Associate+61 293642894 | jennifer.xu@jefferies.com The Long View: WEB Travel GroupInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferLeisure travel is intensely competitive. Online, offline, & hybrid providersabound. There are 3 dominant global players (BKNG, EXPE, TCOM) andmany regional players (e.g., TUI, FLT). Competition is intensifying fromdirect (airlines, hotels, etc.), search engines (Google), metasearch (Trivago,TRIP), and tour operators. Leisure travel vols were heavily impacted byCovid, but are now back to > 100% of pre-Covid. WEB is well-placed tocompete in B2B though it does face competition from much larger-scaleplayers — BKNG, EXPE and Hotelbeds (HB). Overall, we still feel WEB shouldbe valued at a small premium to these very large competitors.Base Case,AUD5, -5%Our base-case PT of A$5.00 is premised on ablend of International OTA EV/EBIT multiples,and Aust travel EV/EBIT multiples. Our base-case multiple valuations ascribe a 5% premiumto International and Aust peer groups, reflectingthe global potential of WEB's B2B segment.Sustainability MattersWEB provides travel reservation services, a sector dependent upon air travel. IATA (covers 83% oftraffic) has committed to net zero by 2050, which requires efforts of the total industry (airlines, airports,manufacturers) and govt support. Sustainable Aviation Fuel has been identified as the means toachieve this goal. Net zero may become a constraint on flying. If the industry fails to deliver on this,govt intervention may be imposed on air travel and, therefore, the travel reservation services sector.Company Targets: 1) 40% female senior mgmt by 2030. 2) Emission reduction pathway to net zero.3) Other: WEB believes in Sustainable Development Goals and the role they play in guiding institutionsto more equitable/environmentally positive outcomes. These SDGs are key to WEB: decent work;innovation; climate action; strong institutions. WEB has committed to setting sustainability targets.Qs to Mgmt: 1) When will WEB provide its sustainability targets? 2) What steps is WEB taking to assistthe airline sector achieve net zero by 2050? 3) What steps is WEB taking to deliver 2030 diversitytargets?Please see important disclosure information on pages 6 - 11 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,AUD5.5, +5%Our upside scenario PT of A$5.50 is premisedon a recovery in margins by FY27 as WEB winsshare (against the small-tail, not the large-scaleplayers). Our upside case multiple valuationsascribe a 10% premium to competitor FY27 EV/EBIT multiples. Downside Scenario,AUD3.8, -28%Our downside scenario PT of A$3.80 is premisedon further margin weakness by FY27 as WEBloses share against its large-scale competitors.Our downside case multiple valuations ascribea -5% discount to competitor FY27 EV/EBITmultiples.CatalystsPositivecatalysts include 1)stronger-than-expected TTV and margins in FY24; 2) majorM&A within B2B; 3) divestment of B2C at anattractive price.Negativecatalysts include 1)further Covidoutbreaksin Australia triggering renewedrestrictions and/or reduced travel propensity;2)government-imposedcarbonsurchargeson international airline travel;3)senior management departures. emission2 Result VarianceTTV was only a slight miss but at marginally-better-than-expected Rev/TTV margins (albeit stillunder pressure). There were only minor variance at the EBITDA line with underlying B2B EBITDAslightly weaker than JEFe -2%, but Group EBITDA including Corporate costs & share-basedpayments, +2% ahead of JEFe. A heavier than expected D&A and effective tax rate meant U-NPATA was a larger miss (-11% vs. JEF). This was positively offet at the EPSA line with the sharebuyback only leading to an EPSA miss of -1%.Figure 4 - Result Variance - P&L.P&L - Result varianceYr to 30 Mar (A$m)TTVRevenueB2BCorporateTotalEBITDAB2BCorporateTotal EBITDAD&AEBITNet InterestPre-Tax ProfitTaxation%MinoritiesUnderlying Net Profit pre Acquired Amort.Reported Net ProfitUnderlying EPSADPSNet Debt (Cash) ex Lease LiabilitiesNet D/Net D + EquityEBITDA MarginsB2BGroup TotalSource: Company, Jefferies estimatesForecast ChangesWe've made operational upgrades to TTV and EBITDA margins, however an increase in D&A andtax se