HBX集团国际：从Web Travel集团财年业绩中获得的启示

Read-across from Web TravelGroup FY Results Read from Web Travel Group (not covered) FY25 results (to 31Mar). Web's current trading still looks strong. Some modestshortening of booking window (in line with HBX commentary)but nothing dramatic. Yes, HBX has some cyclical exposure,but on 8x cal' 26E P/E it looks decent value and we are OW. HBX.MC/HBX SMOVERWEIGHTEuropean InternetPOSITIVEPrice TargetEUR 14.10Price (27-May-25)EUR 10.00Potential Upside/Downside+41.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research European Internet Web Travel Groupis not under coverage by Barclays Research. Information about this company isbeing provided for information purposes only and is not an investment recommendation byBarclays Research. Andrew Ross, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 3023andrew.ross@barclays.comBarclays, UK We are hosting a B2B travel tech insights call with Barrenjoey and Barclays analysts on Monday2nd June at 8am UKT (registration link here).We will discuss recent takeaways from HBX,Expedia and Web Travel Group results. Sarah Roberts+44 (0)20 7773 0959sarah.roberts3@barclays.comBarclays, UK Web Travel Group results Olivia Venancio+44 (0)20 3555 0278olivia.venancio@barclays.comBarclays, UK We view Web Travel Group as the closest listed peer to HBX. It reported its FY25 results (to 31March 2025) overnight. The results appear to have been well received, with the stock up 12%.Commentary around current trading sounds broadly consistent with HBX language – ie. themarket is slowing modestly and booking patterns are shortening modestly. It appears that WebTravel is gaining share. Guillaume Galland, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 4061guillaume.galland@barclays.comBarclays, UK •FY25 results:Bookings were up 20%, driven by strong growth in all regions; TTV was up 22%,•driven by higher bookings and a 2% increase in ABV; revenues were up 1% due to a lower takerate (an issue well flagged late in calendar 2024) – 6.9% in 2H25; EBITDA was down 14%driven by higher opex, as the company focuses on investing in hotel contractors andtechnology. Yash Jain+91 (0)22 6175 3418yash.jain2@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Current trading:In the 8 weeks to 26 May 2025, WEB is seeing strong momentum continuing•into FY26, with bookings on an LFL basis up 29%, TTV up 37% (AUD basis, 28% EUR); by regionthe company is seeing Americas TTV +36%, APAC +22%, Europe +25%, and MEA +32% (all EURbasis). WEB observed a 1-2% tailwind from Easter in current trading, which is in line withcommentary from HBX. The company is seeing a "modest shortening of the bookingwindow", but the tone suggested that this was modest, not dramatic. HBX also referred to ashortening booking window in April with some normalisation in May. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 28-May-25, 09:36 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 09:37 GMTRestricted - External •US travel commentary:WEB does not believe headwinds are significantly impacting the•business, and called out that the US travel market remains strong based on current trading(April 1- 28 May), with Canadians going into the US up +32%, domestic travel up 36% andAmericas travel (excl Canada and US) up +58%; the company acknowledged that the onlysoftnessis coming from Europeans travelling to the US (+7%). •Outlook for FY26 and FY27:A few points to call out: 1) WEB expects a stable take rate of•6.5% into the medium term – and called out several levers to drive this, includingshiftingsupply mix more to DC vs. 3P and re-negotiating supply agreements, which will be slightlyoffsetby its fastest-growing regions having a lower take rate; 2) in order to improve its supplymix, the company is investing in direct contractors, and, although the company expects aslight uptick in EBITDA margins in FY26 (44-47% guided), management believes this is a "keydriver" to getting to 50% EBITDA margins by FY27. The EBITDA margin guidance implies mid-to high-single-digit opex growth in the next couple of years. •Geographical mix:WEB gave colour on how bookings and TTV haveshiftedacross•geographical regions from CY19 to FY25, with Europe going from 46% of TTV to 36% of TTV,Americas increasing from 8% to 25%, APAC increasing from 23% to 28% and MEA decliningfrom 23% to 11%. In FY25, the company saw the highest growth in APAC (TTV +26% yoy), withAmericas +20%, Europe +20% and MEA +23%. The company called out market share gains inEurope and Americas. The company called out the strongest growth in lower-margin region