HBX集团国际：受宏观噪音影响但长期估值偏低

Restricted - External HBX.MC/HBX SMOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean InternetPOSITIVEUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 14.10lowered -1% from EUR 14.30Price (14-May-25)EUR 10.08Potential Upside/Downside+39.9%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)2492Shares Outstanding (mn)247.24Free Float (%)44.2852 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)N/ADividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)N/ACurrent BVPS (EUR)N/ASource: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-MC52 Week rangeEUR 11.78-7.38Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean InternetAndrew Ross, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 3023andrew.ross@barclays.comBarclays, UKSarah Roberts+44 (0)20 7773 0959sarah.roberts3@barclays.comBarclays, UKOlivia Venancio+44 (0)20 3555 0278olivia.venancio@barclays.comBarclays, UK Key points from the call1) 1H25 Earnings recap.1H25 TTV came in at €3,370m (+12% YoY) and revenues came in at€319m (+10% YoY), implying a take rate of 9.5% for the period (down 0.1% from prior year). Thecompany notedeffectsfrom Easter had a negative impact of 1% on TTV growth, and there was a1% tailwind from FX. Adjusted EBITDA came in at €159m, up 14%, with a margin of 49.8%. This isc2% better than company consensus of €156m. Adjusted net debt was €807m, with adj netdebt / EBITDA now at 1.9x (vs 3.2x end-FY24 given IPO primary and FCF generation).2) Geographic mix - MEAPAC and Europe strong, weakness in the US/Americas.Thecompany saw double digit growth in Europe and MEAPAC, driven by international travellers .This is favourable for HBX's take rate, as the long haul travellers tend to book early, spend moretime abroad and purchase experiences alongside hotels. HBX saw slow growth in the US andother Americas, in line with other competitors' commentary (see our read across below forExpedia). Within the US, the company called out several unfavourable factors for take rate,including 1) a higher proportion of 3P supply, 2) a higher proportion of domestic travellers, and3) more competition. We assume the US has a lower take rate than other regions. Within the restof the Americas (HBX's three biggest markets in this region are Mexico, Brazil and Canada), thecompany flagged that Mexico and Canada (top 10 destinations for US travellers) weresofteronthe back of US travellers being more domestic focused.3) Commentary around hotel behaviour and the broader macro environment.A few call-outs: 1) management acknowledged the industry was experiencing a period of high volatilityand uncertainty, with consumer behaviourshiftingto later bookings and turning a bit moreprice sensitive in April, though this was somewhat better in May; 2) HBX stated visibility forsummer bookings (when the bulk of their TTV is generated) is low, with people choosing to booklater; 3) while FX was a tailwind in the first half, they expect this to be a headwind in 2H if theUSD were to remain weak; 3) hotels areofferingmore promotions to HBX, with on average 96%increase in hotel promotions by regions from April 2025 vs January 2025; 4) the company calledout good progress in SPAs in 1H, with customers looking for products; 5) no pick up incancellations suggesting the April P&L is on track. In theory, during a period ofsoftermacro,B2B players have a degree of counter cyclicality given ability to source good deals. This seemsto be playing out but time will tell how 2H take rate plays out; there are lots of moving parts.4) FY25 guidance.Revenue guidance widened to €740-790m (previously €750-790m) and newEBITDA guidance of €430-450m.As a direct result of the macro uncertainty driving low visibilityinto the summer, management widened revenue guidance. HBX noted they have baked in anyFX headwinds into this new guidance. Management believes the upper range of the guidance isstill achievable within this (as presumably is the low end). The EBITDA guidance introduced (notgiven in IPO due to listing rules) was slightly below our model. Then the company hasintroduced a cash conversion guidance of 100% (consistent with our model). Management alsocommented that post debt refi they expect interest expenses to be in the range of €50-60mgoing forward.5) All the mid term targets given in IPO reiterated.6) Partnership updates and announcements.HBX stated that the Despegar deal signed earlierthis year was going well, and flagged a new partnership with Minor hotels to expand theirpresence in MEAPAC. MEAPAC remains a key focus for the company, with management callingout Japan and Dubai as two of the fastest growing regions within their portfolio. When askedabout competitive dynamics more broadly (although we note Expedia stated on their latestearnings call their focus on expanding B2Bofferingsin Asia, and TBO Tek and WEB are moreexposed to Asia), the company is not seeing any changes. We believe the B2B market remainshighly fragmented and there is room for multiple players to grow across regions. 4 Read across to other travel earningsExpedia Q1 Earnings (May 7)As a reminder, Expedia (covered by Trevor Young) posted 14% book