迪克体育用品（DKS）：零售领域的顶级表现……与Foot Locker的合作能否持续？

2024A2025E2026E13,442.813,840.314,456.314.0514.2515.40-13,868.014,407.8-14.1715.14 Jonathan Matuszewski, CFA * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1737 | jmatuszewski@jefferies.comRandal J. Konik * | Equity Analyst(212) 708-2719 | rkonik@jefferies.com The Long View: Dick's Sporting GoodsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•'Category Killer' in sporting goods retail with near 9% market share•Scale creates leverage with vendors to offer leading assortment•Leading omni-channel presence•In-store services that render DKS a destination retailer•Vertical brand portfolio that fuels customer acquisition & retention•Best-in-class loyalty program•Risk from potential Foot Locker dealBase Case,$186, +7%•Comps: +LSD% in '25•16 House of Sport and 18 Field House, and 14Golf Galaxy locations open in '25•Gradual expansion in owned brand penetration•Gradual expansion in e-Commerce penetration•Gross Margin: Expansion in '25 with pressurefrom tariffs and a new DC offset by premiumproduct, sharper promos, vertical brands, andDMN•GameChanger grows to $150M in '25•C'26E EPS: $15.40; $186 PT based on ~12.1x P/E and ~7.5x EV/EBITDASustainability MattersTop material issue(s):1) Labor Practices:Access to labor is a key issue for retailers; companies shouldseek to provide positive work environments in order to remain competitive.2) Ecological Impacts:Preserving the outdoors is core to the long-term health of DKS and the outdoor recreation industry as awhole. As a result, the company should be particularly focused on sustainability throughout operations.Company Targets:1)Reduce greenhouse gas emissions for Dick's operations by 30% by 2030 (vs. 2016baseline);2)Increase overall representation of women in store leadership to 40% by 2025;3)IncreaseBIPOC representation in leadership roles by 30% by 2025.Qs to Mgmt: 1)To what extent does your target customer value the usage of sustainable materials andconsider product lifecycle implications; could such products carry higher ASP/margin?2)What kind ofinitiatives do you have in place for attracting people to work at DKS?Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$240, +38%•Comps: +MSD% in '25•> 16 House of Sport or > 18 Field Houselocations or > 14 Golf Galaxy locations in '25•House of Sport 4-wall economics strengthen vs.current algo of $35M in Year 1 AUV and 20%EBITDA margins•GolfGalaxyPerformanceeconomics perform better than expected•Vertical Brand merchandising efforts drivebetter than expected growth•Gross Margin:>75 bps of expansion in'25 with better than expected vertical brandperformance•GameChanger growth accelerates beyondcurrent expectations in '25•C'26E EPS: $16.00; $240 PT based on ~15x P/E Risk/Reward - 12 Month View26024022020018016014012010020252024Center4-wallDownside Scenario,$152, -13%•Comps: (LSD%) in '25•< 16 House of Sport or < 18 Field or < 14 GolfGalaxy Locations House locations open in '25•House of Sport 4-wall economics deteriorate vs.current algo of $35M in Year 1 AUV and 20%EBITDA margins•GolfGalaxyeconomics worsen, impacted by competitorexpansion efforts•Vertical Brand merchandising efforts fail todrive growth•Gross Margin: Compression in '25 as tariffs anda new DC are unable to be offset merch margingrowth•GameChanger growth decelerates in '25•C'26 EPS: $14.48; $152 PT based on ~10.5x P/ECatalysts•Ongoing roll-out of House of Sport, Field House,and Golf Galaxy Performance Centers•Extension of current Vertical Brands into newcategories; Launch of new Vertical Brands•Increasing share of annual Team Sports spendas GameChanger broadens reach•New Regional DC (2026)•Foot Locker M&A developments Performance Center4-wall2 .Source: Company data, Jefferies estimates.Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionDick's Sporting GoodsDick’s Sporting Goods, Inc. is an omni-channel sporting goods retailers offering a wide assortment of sporting equipment, apparel, footwear, andaccessories. The company operates more than 850 DICK’s Sporting Goods, Golf Galaxy, Public Lands, Going Going Gone! and House of Sport stores.Company Valuation/RisksDick's Sporting GoodsOur $186 PT is based on ~12.1x P/E and ~7.5x EV/EBITDA on our CY'26 estimates, a premium to direct sporting goods & athletic peers. UpsideRisks: Competitive backdrop eases and sports participation sharply accelerates and NKE allocations improve. Downside Risks: Competitive backdropintensifies and sports participation sharply decelerates and NKE allocations deteriorate.Foot Locker, Inc.Our $24PT is based on ~16x P/E and ~6x EV/EBITDA applied to our FY'27 estimates. Risks include share losses, even higher promos, and channel shift.NikeOur $115 price target is based on ~33x P/E on our FY'27 estimate. Risks include cost inflation, waning product cycle, an