美国和欧盟体育用品零售：全球运动服装：DKS FL合并-深入探讨美国体育用品零售格局

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingJD/.LNONKEOADS.GROONONOEDMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedNKE, ADS.GR estimate is Reported EPS; NKE, ADS.GR valuation is Reported P/E (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSFor Nike (Outperform), we see a mixed impact of this potential deal. The joint entity, run by DKS Mgmt team and leveragingDKS tech and omni-channel capabilities, would offer a better opportunity to access a wider TAM of customers with moresegmentation opportunities across the market, and a more effective data-driven way to reach them. However, having one retailpartner driving ~25% of Nike’s US sales(See our note onimplications of this merger)would shift the balance of power andperhaps put more pressure on NKE margins.For On (Outperform) and Adidas (Outperform),both high-growth brands in the US market, this is a net positive. Thesebrands are looking for more opportunities to access shelf space and reach customers, and dealing with a single entity that cansegment the market effectively across the product base will be highly beneficial, for example putting high-heat lifestyle productinto some doors and premium running shoes into others, without each partner demanding access to the entire assortment.While brand heat is strong and sell-throughs are moving at full price, there should not be a major change to negotiating terms,but clearly this does shift the balance of power and presents a risk to these brands if their sales do stagnate over the medium-term.For JD Sports (Outperform), we think this is a net negative for 5 reasons.1) In a wave of consolidation, smaller players canget left behind. JD was a strong #3 player in the US and had been gaining share. Now it will be a weak #2 player.2) Additionalinvestment and expertise going into competitorsto JD Sports could increase competition in lifestyle. 3) JD Sports may getless access with the brands.4) The merger could drive a wave of international expansionpressuring on JD’s business inEurope.5) JD Sports has missed out on mega consolidation and was not the target -You have to ask why, especially atits current valuation levels. There are a small number of net positives:1) The deal increases the bid speculationon JD Sportsand it could be a target itself. However, we don’t see any industry buyers but see opportunity in a PE LBO (See note here).2)Further US consolidation could be on the cards- although the number of attractive opportunities for JD is limited & mostlyadjacent, not synergistic; 3) Any store disposals could be attractive for JDto expand quicker in the US;4) DKS will likelydrive greater rationality in FL’s promotional strategywhich will relieve pressure on the overall market.US & EU SPORTING GOODS RETAIL 2 Table Of ContentsMarket size and shares.......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3The major Sports Retail Formats........................................................................................................................................................................................6Mix Comparisons...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8Store Overlap analysis......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10Demographics.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................13Detailed store maps by company.................................................................................................................................................................................... 18Proposition differences....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 23DETAILSMARKET SIZE AND SHARESThe total US Apparel & Footwear market is c. $432bn,and this has grown at a LSD CAGR since 2010 (Exhibit 1). Within this,the US Sportswear market is c. $157bn, and this has been growing at a faster MSD rate, representing 36% of total apparel andfootwear in 2024, up from 23% in 2010 (Exhibit 2).The total US apparel and footwear market is highly fragmented,with the top 5 retailers holding a combined c. 17% marketshare, compared to the UK where the top 5 players make up c. 30% of the market (Exhibit 3). Dick’s is the largest player, with5.