美国服装及专业零售：美国运动服装需求追踪（2025年5月）

U.S.Apparel&SpecialtyRetail USSportsweardemandtracker(May2025) 3June2025 AneeshaSherman +19173448457 aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com JessicaTian +19173448413 jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com JedHodulik +19173448594 jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com Inthismonthlyreport,weputtogetheranumberofreal-timedatasourcestolookatdemandandsupplytrendsacrosstheUSSportswearlandscape,includingfoottraffic,spending, webtraffic,SKUcounts,markdownbreadth,markdowndepth,averageprices,andappengagement. TrafficandspendtrendscontinuetobesluggishthroughAprilandMayacrossbrandsandretailers,thoughimprovingvs.Q1—e.g.,ADS,LULU,ONON,DECK,CROX,UAA,SKXandotherssawapickupinAprilandMaytrends.Emergingbrandscontinuetoseeoutperformanceinfoottrafficaswellaswebtraffic(e.g.On,Altra,Hoka,Alo),reflectinggrowingbrandawareness.Similarly,specialtyretailers(e.g.Fleetfeet)havecontinuedtooutperformthelargesportinggoodretailers(e.g.FL,DKS).NikeandLululemonfoottrafficaren’tworsening,andLululemonisintheLSD%positiverange,thoughwebtrafficremainsnegativeforbothNKEandLULU. SKUcountshaveremainedsteadyacrossmajorbrands,andMarkdownsslightlydeclining,suggestingnoinventoryconcernssofar.SKUtrendsatNKEhavegraduallydeclined(astheonlineassortmentisgraduallycleared)whileSKUcountsareflattishatADS,LULU,SKXandHoka,andgrowingatPUM.MarkdownbreadthanddepthhaveslightlydeclinedatNKE,ADS,PUM,LULU,signalingagenerallyleanerinventorybutwithnomajorshiftsininventorypositionsthroughMayYTD. AveragerealizedpriceisgraduallygoingupforNKE,downforADS,slightlyupforLULU.AsNike’sclearanceeffortscontinue,averagerealizedpricehasbeengoingupHSD-LDD%ontheDTCsiteforthepastyear.ADSaveragepricingonDTCsitehasbeencomingdown,perhapsduetomixoftakedownversions/lowerpricepointSKUs(e.g.KidsTerrace).LULUhasseenpricesincreaseslightlyYoYalongsideSKUcountgrowth,drivenbynewfull-pricelaunches. ViewintoSummer2025:Asweresumethemonthlyupdatingandpublishingofthistracker,weexpecttoseetwointerestingsupply-sideshiftsintoSummer2025:Pricingchangesastariff-inducedpriceraisestakeeffect,andInventorygettingleanerasbrandsordercautiouslyintoH2tomanageinboundshipmentsandhedgeagainstademandslowdown.Whileitdoesn’tseemlikeretailerorderbookshavepulledbackyet,wewillalsobewatchingforthischange.Onthedemandside,traffictrendsandmarkdownswillbeindicatorstowatchforshiftsinconsumerspendinganddemandtrends.Ifdemandweretoslow,brandswithlowerUSmarketsharethathavebeenoutperforming(e.g.Adidas,On)aremoreprotected,whliebiggerincumbentbrands(e.g.Nike,Lululemon)aremoreatrisk. SeetheDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforrequireddisclosures,analystcertificationsandotherimportantinformation.Alternatively,visitourGlobalResearchDisclosureWebsite. FirstPublished:03Jun202504:12UTCCompletionDate:03Jun202502:39UTC www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE 2Jun2025 TTM ReportedEPS ReportedP/E(x) Closing Price Rel. Ticker Rating Price Target Perf. 2024A2025E 2026E 2024A2025E2026E ADS.GR O EUR 218.70 300.00 (16.9)% EUR 4.24 8.28 11.71 51.6 26.4 18.7 ADDYY O USD 125.66 162.25 (13.2)% USD 2.29 4.49 6.73 54.8 28.0 18.7 NKE O USD 61.57 85.00 (47.7)% USD 3.73 2.22 2.05 16.5 27.8 30.1 LULU O USD 322.95 350.00 (9.0)% USD 14.64 14.84 16.67 22.1 21.8 19.4 ONON O USD 59.14 70.00 27.8% CHF 0.97 0.98 1.38 49.8 49.5 34.9 EDM 1,432.59 SPX 5,935.94 O-Outperform,M-Market-Perform,U-Underperform,NR-NotRated,CS-CoverageSuspendedONONestimateisAdjustedEPS;ONONvaluationisAdjustedP/E(x); Source:Bloomberg,Bernsteinestimatesandanalysis. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS OutperformonNike,On,Adidas,Lululemon TableOfContents FootTraffic4 DebitandCreditCardSpend7 WebTraffic11 Inventory13 MarkdownBreadthandDepth15 AveragePrices16 AppDownloadsandUsage18 DETAILS Inthismonthlyreport,welookatUSdemandandsupplytrendsacrossSportswearbrands,includingfoottraffic,observedsales,webtraffic,inventory,markdowns,appdownloadsandappusage.Weincludeourcoveragecompanies(Nike,Adidas,LululemonandOn)anduncoveredcomps(Hoka,Puma,UnderArmour,AloYoga,Vuori,Skechers,Asics,NewBalance,FootLocker,DicksSportingGoods)andprivatecompanies.JDSportsiscoveredbyourcolleagueWillWoodsoutofLondon. RecentWorkonSportswear: •GlobalSportswear:DKS/FLmerger-Deep-diveintotheUSSportingGoodsRetaillandscape •WeekendConsumerBlast:WheredidalltheJordansgo? •On:Brandmomentumstillgoingstrong •Adidas:OutperformancemeetsUncertainty •USSpecialtyRetail&USTransportation:HowdoesChinatariffreliefimpactUSsupplyanddemand? •USApparel&SpecialtyRetail:Threenamestoownintoarecession •Sportswear:ThemesfromQ4earningsandQ1guides •GlobalSportswear:CurrenttrendsinUSandEurope(Q1channelchecks) •Nikevs.Challengerbrands:TakeawaysfromourRunningSpecialtypanel •TheLongView:GlobalSportswear-Aseculargrowthsectorin2025andbeyond FOOTTRAFFIC May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25 2%4%-2%9%-3%0%8%-4%-3%-10%-7% 12%15%9%15%7%13%10%-7%-4%-10%-7% 12%10%6%9%0%1%8%2%6%1%3% 3%4%0%4%-5%1%2%-3%3%-8%-4% 1%8%2%11%-1%8%14%1%7%0%2% 2%3%0%3%-3%-2%5%-2%2%-4%-3% 5%11%7%13%6%8%11%1%6%1%3% 5%5%0%7%-4%-1%6%-5%-1%-6%-5% -1%6%0%3%-4%-3%10%-1%0%-5%-3% 100%95%63%73%70%83%36%13%18%8%11% 3