梅西百货2025年第一季度回顾：一些看法

Restricted - External MEQUAL WEIGHTUnchangedU.S. Specialty Retail,Apparel & FootwearNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 12.00UnchangedPrice (28-May-25)USD 12.00Potential Upside/Downside+0.0%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (USD mn)3342Shares Outstanding (mn)278.57Free Float (%)94.7852 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)6.3Dividend Yield (%)6.09Return on Equity TTM (%)12.92Current BVPS (USD)15.98Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 20.70-9.76Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingU.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearPaul Kearney+1 212 526 1964paul.kearney@barclays.comBCI, USAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.comBCI, USMichael Vu+1 212 526 9568michael.vu@barclays.comBCI, US Estimates.Our FY25, FY26, and FY27 Adj. EPS estimates are $1.85, $1.99, and $2.01 (from $1.99,$2.04, and $2.05), compared to consensus of $1.91, $1.96, and $1.98, respectively. Our estimatechanges are driven primarily by timing of closures within our model on the top-line, andincremental gross margin pressure in 2Q25-4Q25, partiallyoffsetby better SG&A leverage. Ourprice target of $12 (unchanged) is based on 6.0x NTM P/E multiple (unchanged) applied to ourCY26 Adj. EPS of $1.99 (from $2.04). Our 6x multiple is in-line with the current multiple, belowthe historical average of 10x, and in our view reflects the potential risk of further earningscompression from a weakening consumer environment and long-term structural headwinds.M: Quarterly and Annual EPS (USD)202420252026Change y/yFY JanActualOldNewConsOldNewCons20252026Q10.27A0.13E0.16A0.14E0.13E0.18E0.17E-41%12%Q20.53A0.23E0.17E0.34E0.23E0.33E0.35E-68%94%Q30.04A-0.01E-0.11E-0.16E0.03E-0.09E-0.05EN/A18%Q41.79A1.64E1.63E1.61E1.65E1.58E1.65E-9%-3%Year2.64A1.99E1.85E1.93E2.04E1.99E1.97E-30%8%P/E4.56.56.0Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 28-May-2025; 12:50 GMTSource: Barclays Research2 Variance TableFIGURE 1. Variance Table (in $ millions, except per share data)Source: Company Filings, Barclays Research, Bloomberg consensus estimates28 May 2025 Model ChangesFIGURE 2. Model Changes (in $ millions, except per share data)Source: Company Filings, Barclays Research, Bloomberg28 May 2025 Historical P/E MultipleFIGURE 3. Historical P/E MultipleSource: Barclays Research, Bloomberg28 May 2025Barclays | Macy's Inc. ValuationFIGURE 4. DCF (in $ millions, except per share data)Source: Barclays Research28 May 2025Barclays | Macy's Inc. FIGURE 5. DCF Sensitivity (in $ millions, except per share data)Current PriceMDCF Sensitivity TableLT GrowthCurrent price is as of 5/28/25Source: Barclays Research, BloombergFIGURE 6. Multiple Valuation Sensitivity (in $ millions, except per share data)Current PriceMMultiple Valuation Sensitive TableP/E MultipleCurrent price is as of 5/28/25Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg Inventory Management Spread, GMROI, and OMROIFIGURE 7. Historical Change in Total Sales Vs. Average Inventory (IM Spread), 1Q08A – PresentFiscal Year End JanuarySource: Company data, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8. Historical GMROI/OMROI Analysis, 1Q08A – Present-0.4x-0.2x0.0x0.2x0.4x0.6x1Q08A3Q08A1Q09A3Q09A1Q10A3Q10A1Q11A3Q11A1Q12A3Q12A1Q13A3Q13A1Q14A3Q14A1Q15A3Q15A1Q16A3Q16A1Q17A3Q17A1Q18A3Q18A1Q19A3Q19AM Trailing 4Q OMROIM Trailing 4Q GMROIFiscal Year End JanuarySource: Company data, Barclays Research28 May 2025 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Adrienne Yih and Paul Kearney, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any orall of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectlyrelated to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operati