自动交易商：2026财年ARPR指引略有疲软

SlightlysoftFY26 ARPR guide Results slightly below, FY26 guide slightly below. Stock hashad a good run; we’d expect some consolidation on the backof these numbers. AUTOA.L/AUTO LNOVERWEIGHTEuropean InternetPOSITIVEPrice TargetGBp 995Price (27-May-25)GBp 901Potential Upside/Downside+10.4%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research FY25 results slightly below.FY results are 1% below cons on revenue and 1% below on EBIT.Within this, ARPR was +5% in FY25 (vs our +5.7%) with price +2.8pts, stock -0.8pts and product+2.8pts. European Internet Guidance for FY26 a bit below consensus on ARPR.Expect retail revenue of 5-7% (vs cons 8%and Barc 8%). Within this they give a steer on ARPR. They expect price c3.3pts, Co-Driver c2.7pts(both broadly in line with our expectations), but then stock slightly down (we had modelledslightly up) and prominence slightly up (we had modelled flat). They aren’t expecting any DealBuilder revenue as the commercial model is being changed. There is no comment on smallother factors. So all in, this points to c6-6.5pts of ARPR growth vs our model 8pts and cons 8pts.The delta is really on stock (c1pt) and then Deal Builder (c0.5pts). They expect broadly stablecustomers (in line). Outside retail revenue, they expect “consistent” revenue in ConsumerServices and M&A (broadly in line with us but cons has small growth). On margins, they expectto hold core AutoTrader stable at 70% ex DST (in line with cons, 1pt better than us). OnAutorama, they expect EBIT broadly in line with cons (i.e. about b/even). Andrew Ross, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 3023andrew.ross@barclays.comBarclays, UK Sarah Roberts+44 (0)20 7773 0959sarah.roberts3@barclays.comBarclays, UK Guillaume Galland, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 4061guillaume.galland@barclays.comBarclays, UK Yash Jain+91 (0)22 6175 3418yash.jain2@barclays.comBarclays, UK Deal Builder commercial model.No longer monetising on a per transaction basis and willbundle it in as part of the subscription product. We assume this is monetised as part of the FY27pricing event in April 2026. All things being equal, we think this is a small negative to FY26 DealBuilder revenue (i.e. none vs a starting point of c0.5pt contribution) but then likely a positive toFY27 revenue. But it isn’t necessarily a positive to overall revenue (in fact probably a smallnegative) as it isn’t clear that the Deal Builder element to the subscription will be incremental toanother product that had been explicitly modelled in (e.g. Co-Driver part ii); more likely weexpect this to replace the other product. So Deal Builder appears to be morphing into a productthat can help the group to keep growing ARPR HSD % (in a normal cycle) but any hope it canhelp accelerate to LDD % is now much less obvious. Olivia Venancio+44 (0)20 3555 0278olivia.venancio@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays | AutoTrader Analyst(s) Certification(s): I, Andrew Ross, CFA, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst. Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account. Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor