海尔智家(6690 HK)：2026财年指引稳健但我们持谨慎态度

FY26E guidance is solid but we are cautious Target PriceHK$29.05(Previous TPHK$31.57)Up/Downside15.9%Current PriceHK$25.06 3Q25 results were a beat, thanks to robust air-conditioner and leader brand’sbusiness. Management has kept their FY25E guidance unchanged andunveileda similar FY26E guidance. While we highlyappreciateHaier’s level of executionand its growth drivers (air-con, Casarte,overseas, efficiency gainsthroughdigitalization, etc..), we would still be careful about any macro risks.Hence,wenow onlyforecast5% sales growth and 9% net profit growth in FY26E. All in all,we maintain BUY but cut TP to HK$ 29.05, based on 11x FY26E P/E (reviseddown from 12x, to factor in slowdown of industry growth). China Consumer DiscretionaryWalter WOO(852) 3761 8776walterwoo@cmbi.com.hk FY25E guidance reiterated andwe are not worried about 4Q25E.Themanagement has reiterated its 2H25E and FY25E guidance of HSD salesgrowth and 10%+ net profit sales growth. Therefore, with such a decent3Q25 result, we do findthat4Q25E sales and net profit growthishighlyachievable. FY26Eguidance was also announced but we tend to be moreconservative (even though the Company has multiple growth andmargindrivers).For FY26E, the management alsogave outtheir guidanceof MSD to HSD sales growth (previously HSD) and 10%+ net profit growth(nochange). We do think these growth drivers are valid, but still, we wantto play safe and forecast only 5% sales growth and 9% net profit for F26E,in case if there is any unexpected macrorisk. There are still many growth drivers and margin drivers in FY26E (suchasair-con, Casarte,overseas, efficiencygainsthrough digitalization,etc..). For air-conditioner business, management is confident on 10%+ salesgrowth in the next 3 to 5 years, supported by: 1) further upgrades in R&Dcapability (as it is now even closer to its end-customers), 2) star productsstrategy and more cross-selling between different categories under thesame brand, 3) digitalization of inventory, which could make sales moreefficient (offline stores can now sell more SKUs and online distributors canalso generate more sales without even owning the inventory), and 4) rapiddevelopment of overseas markets (esp. the emerging markets). Margin-wise, the air-conditioner business’s OP margin could also increase fromabout 4% to around 8% inthemediumterm, driven by: 1) ramp up of air-conditioners’supply chain(more self-owned production and greatereconomies of scales, 2)an increasing level ofdigitalization on procurement,manufacturing and logistics, 3) further improvements in channel efficiency(shorter lead time, quicker response, better and more accurate customerengagement, etc.), and 4) premiumization from more upgrades in productquality (e.g. functions and appearance) and greater sales from high-endbrands and segments. (to be continued in the next page). Source: FactSet Recent reports:JS Global Lifestyle (1691 HK)-Joyoung may turn around while SharkNinja’srepaid growth continues(4Sep25) Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)-2H25Eoutlook to stay positive backed bymultiple strengths(1Sep25) Carote Ltd (2549 HK)-Macro risks aremanifold and have intensified(29 Jun 25) Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)-Robustgrowth momentum but we are prudent(6 May 25) Carote Ltd (2549 HK)-Still subject tonumerous macro risks(31 Mar 25) For Casarte brand, management is aiming for 15%+ sales growth in FY26E, thanksto:1) its industry-leading products in innovation and quality, 2) category expansioninto and more cross-selling between air-conditioner,water purifier and kitchenappliances, 3) expansion of more high-end experience based stores (will add 100more in higher tier cities this year), 4) further ramp up of its online marketing and 5)improvement in overall service level (the original 7 stars package will be reviewedand more features will be added). For overseas market, we are also quite optimistic on its mid-term growth and marginimprovement. We believe the US market’s sales growth could improve after severalinterest rate cuts in 2H25E, andEU market’s growth to remain fast following thereforms and M&A last year. And we think the emerging markets’ sales growth couldevenbefaster, thanks to these initiatives: 1) more localization inproducts, fromdesigns to marketing and to sales channels), 2) more talents are sent from mainlandChina to lead the strategy development in these markets, 3) more digitization in salesand inventory management. Margin-wise, we are relatively more confident, becauseof: 1) the OP margin level is still low and there are ample room for catch up (onlyabout 3%/ 6% for EU/ US, still lower than China’s 8%), 2) the product premiumizationintheUS market, 3) efficiency gains intheEU market by eliminating many non-productive personnel and facilities, 4) further localization in the emerging markets,including but not limited to the ramp up of new and future facilities in Egypt andBrazil, as well as those in Asia. Maintain BUY but cut TP toHK$29.05, based on 11x FY26E P/E