salesforce 2026年第一季度：不算差，也不惊艳，符合预期

RatingUnderperformPrice TargetCRMAdjusted EPSF25ACRM (USD)10.19OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Salesforce delivered very much of an in-line quarter, beating on revenue and missingconsensus on margins, but FX accounted for most of the revenue beat and all the FY guideincrease. The bigger story of the quarter was yesterday’s announcement of the Informaticadeal, which we think was a reasonable acquisition at a reasonable / good price.In some ways we could say this was a boring quarter (other than the acquisition), but franklyboring is good. With concerns about macro and the potential of a recession it is nice yet againto see a company deliver an in-line quarter with no visible macro effect.We have been concerned that Salesforce was a mature business in a mature market and thatexpectations were running too high in general and especially as it relates to Agentforce. Afterthe Q1 results, the stock was basically flat in the aftermarket as expectations are likely tocome down that growth is not going to accelerate and the company is increasing headcountinvestments and M&A.We believe that Salesforce can grow subscription revenue in the high single digits andpossibly 10% near term, slowing further over time and that the ability to drive marginswill become more and more difficult. The question is what is that worth? We maintain ourUnderperform as wait for the over exuberant growth expectations of low teens to dissipateand for the stock to be valued as the mature value business that it is.Investment ImplicationsSalesforce (CRM, PT $255, Underperform)CRM is a maturing business in maturingmarkets, but it has been valued as a revenue re-acceleration story. Agentic AI is still veryearly and a market with lots of competition and therefore is not at least the near-term driverof reacceleration. The result is limited upside and meaningful downside risk. We raised ourtarget price from $243 to $255, as we rolled forward our model.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 04:05 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 01:48 UTC 255.00 USD(243.00OLD)F27E12.6812.54FinancialsRevenues (M)Operating Earnings (M)Net Earnings (M)Revenue/ShareOperating Margin (%)Net Income Margin (%)EPS Growth (%) F26E11.3411.19F25AF26EF27ECAGR37,89541,29844,9298.9%12,49814,10415,79712.4%9,93010,97612,25611.1%38.9042.6746.489.3%33.034.235.2--26.226.627.3--24.111.311.8--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$400$350$300$25005/24 VALUATION COMPS TABLECompanyShare PriceAdobe$411.98Microsoft$457.65Oracle$163.79MongoDB$188.33Salesforce.com$274.42HubSpot$617.20SAP$297.48Snowflake$204.27Workday$239.86Autodesk$299.38ServiceNow$1,019.45Amadeus$82.67Datadog$116.25Bernstein CoverageOther Comps5/28/2025GLOBAL SOFTWARE DETAILSSalesforce delivered very much of an in-line quarter, beating on revenue, due mostly to FX, but missing consensus on margins.Management reaffirmed FY guidance (They raised FY guidance by $400M as FX turned from a $150M headwind into a $250Mtailwind). In fact FX accounted for most of the beat this quarter. The story of quarter was the company announcement earlier thisweek of Informatica which we think was a reasonable acquisition at a reasonable / good price.In some ways we could say this was a boring quarter (other than the acquisition announcement, which was leaked on Fridayand discussed on-and-off all year). But frankly boring is good for software, if not for Salesforce’s stock. With all the concernsabout macro and the potential of a recession it is nice to yet again see a company deliver an in-line quarter with no visible macroeffects in the results or in the guidance.The company delivered $9.83B in revenue which beat slight consensus ($9.75B) and their guidance range($9.76B) due toa$50M FX tailwind. They missed consensus expectations for margins, delivering 32.3% vs consensus estimates of 32.5%.Driving margin improvement going forward is going to be increasingly tough and as the company is going to increase their Salesexec headcount by ~20% and their forward development engineers, that work with clients, leverage is mostly going to offset thegrowth in S&M headcount and R&D investment in AI.We have been concerned that Salesforce was a mature business in a mature market and that expectations were runningtoo high in general and especially as it relates to Agentforce. Salesforce’s Q1 results and guidance were in-line with ourexpectations as the company delivered a relatively small beat (especially if we take out the tailwind from FX). The stock wasbasically flat in the aftermarket as expectations are likely to come down that growth is not going to accelerate and the companyis increasing headcount investments and M&A.We believe that Salesforce can grow subscription revenue in the high single digits and possibly 10% near