泡泡玛特：2026年第一季度符合预期，但在可持续性和利润率方面存在关键问题

China Consumer Pop Mart International Limited Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665 Rating Underperform Price Target 9992.HK 181.00 HKD Pop Mart: 1Q26 meets expectations but leaves key questions onsustainability and margins Pop Mart's Q1 revenue growth of 75-80% came in at the high end of investorexpectations for 70-80% growth,as the market broadly anticipated this acceleration, Close Date12 May 20269992.HK Close Price (HKD)162.90Price Target (HKD)181.00Upside/(Downside)11%52-Week Range339.80/140.10ASIAX1,976.13FYEDecDiv Yield1.7%Market Cap (HKD) (M)218,456EV (HKD) (M)175,568 but above our conservative expectations. China's growth of 100-105% came in at the highend of expectations for 80-100%, and overseas expectations of 50-60% aligned well withthe actual blended overseas growth (25-30% Asia Pacific, 55-65% Americas/Europe). This Meeting topline expectations reveals nothing about whether the growth is profitable,sustainable, or driven by healthy underlying demandvs. easy comparisons to lastyear’s low seasonal base. The street was already expecting 80-100% China growth, whichsuggests the market had priced in China online channel acceleration, making the actual Our model assumed Pop Mart's growth moderation would continueas the Chinesemarket is maturing, new IP launches faced tougher comparisons, and international expansionwould be gradual and unfavourable to profit mix, leading us to forecast only high-teens to20% FY2026 growth with deceleration across quarters. While Q1's momentum exceeded Our estimates were conservative across all geographies, particularly in China, where our77% growth forecast vs. the actual 102.5% (midpoint) was the bulk of our total group miss.The primary driver was underestimating China online channel acceleration—we forecast91% growth but the actual was ~152% (midpoint) — based on Moojin data that failed to Reported EPSF24AF25EF26EFinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRValuation MetricsF24AF25EF26ENevertheless, for FY26, our differentiated view focuses on three areas where wemaintain skepticism despite Q1's strong headline result:first, we remain cautiouson margin trajectory given the increased investments; second, our quarterly phasingassumptions show Q2-Q4 decelerating given the tough comp bases; and third, we questionthe international profitability timeline, despite the headline growth rates. We maintaincaution on growth sustainability, implying 17% blended growth for Q2-Q4, as we believe demand payback in subsequent quarters. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Pop Mart Underperform. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Pop Mart International Limited We value Pop Mart on target next-twelve-month price-to-earnings (NTM P/E) multiples. We select the target NTM P/E based onthe company's profit growth and return on invested capital (ROIC). We believe that stocks with higher long-term growth ratesandhigher ROIC deserve higher multiples and so we apply incremental company premiums or discounts to individual stocks to RISKS Pop Mart International Limited Upside risks: • Monster volume: The Monsters volume higher than expected due to increased popularity among collectors and newdemographics, driving stronger sales and market penetration. • IP diversification: Earlier and higher than expected revenue contribution from Pop Mart's diversification into new product lines •Margin improvement above expectation: Pop Mart has achieved historical high margins, both operating margin and net profitmargin , in 2024 and is expecting another new height in 2025. If the company is able to maintain the efficient management, such RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exch