2025年第一季度净租赁回顾：NNN、NTST和O

1Q25ActualFY25 Guide(4Q24)FY25 Guide(1Q25)0.30%0.50%0.50%0.00%1.00%0.75%*0.60%0.60%0.48%0.75%0.75% % Chg0.00%-0.25%0.00%0.00% Linda Tsai * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8011 | ltsai@jefferies.comJonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.comKatie Elders * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1968 | kelders@jefferies.com Realty Income (O):Zips emerged from its CH11 ~a month ago, and O confirmed that no assetswere rejected, although O did negotiate the rent on some leases. Mgmt commented that Zipsemerged with a balance sheet that is more conducive to their operations. More broadly, O hasbeen selective in the US transaction market, passing on certain higher-yielding opportunities dueto concerns about credit quality. Instead, 65% of O's 1Q25 acquisitions were in Europe. O haspurchased retail parks at attractive yields (8-9%) & below market rents (5-6%). O noted retail parkshave seen cap rate compression of 250-300 bps since their initial investment ~3 years ago.Exhibit 2 - Net Lease Acquisition Volume Q/Q.ADCSource: Jefferies, Company DataExhibit 4 - Net Lease Acquisition Cap Rates Q/Q.5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%1Q22A2Q22A3Q22A4Q22A1Q23A2Q23A3Q23A4Q23A1Q24A2Q24A3Q24A4Q24A1Q25AADCNTSTSource: Jefferies, Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. NNNOExhibit 3 - Net Lease Disposition Volume Q/Q.ADCNNNOSource: Jefferies, Company Data7.3%7.7%7.4%7.0%NNNOExhibit 5 - Net Lease AFFO Growth.3.1%5.2%1.6%2.0%4.8%3.3%2.8%4.8%3.5%2.4%1.9%1.4%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%ADCNTSTNNNO'22-'23'23-'24'24-'25Source: Jefferies, Company Data'25 AFFO represents the MP of guidance as of 1Q25. Summary of ChangesCompanyNNN REIT, IncNNNPreviousNetSTREITNTSTPreviousRealty IncomeOPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.AFFO: NNN estimates reflect cash AFFO.Please see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^HOLD$41.14BUY$16.03BUY$55.85 Updating Estimates/PT:O:We raise our FY25 AFFO/sh estimate +4c to $4.27 (+1.8% YoY). 2025 AFFO headwinds include:-2c due to outsized term fees in '24 ($21M vs typical $4-5M), and -4c due to potential rent loss andimpact from a large office tenant move-out. We raise our FY26 estimate +2c to $4.42 (+3.6% YoY).We increase our DDM-derived PT by $2 to $62. Including the 5.7% dividend yield, our forecast TSRis +16.8%. Reaffirm Buy.Exhibit 6 - O ABR vs. Number of Properties.$0M$1,000M$2,000M$3,000M$4,000M$5,000M$6,000M1Q16A3Q16A1Q17A3Q17AABR (LHS)Source: Jefferies, Company DataExhibit 8 - Disposition Volumes vs. Cash Yields.4.3%6.7%14.6%$0M$50M$100M$150M$200M$250M$300M1Q16A3Q16A1Q17A3Q17A1Q18ADispositions VolumeSource: Jefferies, Company DataNTST:We raise our FY25 AFFO/sh estimate by +3c to $1.30 (+3.4% YoY growth), and raise our FY26AFFO/sh estimate +1c to $1.32 (+1.0% YoY) on higher investment volume. While net inv. guidancewas maintained at a $100M MP, a strong 1Q ($46M) suggests further upside for the year. Weincrease our DDM-derived PT by $1 to $18; Reaffirm Buy.Exhibit 10 - NTST ABR vs. Number of Properties.$0.0M$50.0M$100.0M$150.0M$200.0M3Q20A4Q20A1Q21A2Q21AAnnualized cash rents (LHS)Source: Jefferies, Company DataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 16 - 21 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 1Q18A3Q18A1Q19A3Q19A1Q20A3Q20A1Q21ANumber of properties (RHS)5.7%7.3%2.2%3Q18A1Q19A3Q19A1Q20A3Q20A1Q21A3Q21A4Q21A1Q22A2Q22A3Q22A4Q22A $5,052.1M050001000015000200003Q21A1Q22A3Q22A1Q23A3Q23A1Q24A3Q24A1Q25AExhibit 7 - 1Q25 Occupancy -20 bps Q/Q.98.4%97.8%97.0%97.5%98.0%98.5%99.0%99.5%1Q14A3Q14A1Q15A3Q15A1Q16A3Q16ASource: Jefferies, Company Data6.8%7.6%0%5%10%15%20%3Q21A1Q22A3Q22A1Q23A3Q23A1Q24A3Q24A1Q25ACash YieldExhibit 9 - Acquisition Volumes vs. Cash Yields.6.3%7.1%$0M$1,000M$2,000M$3,000M$4,000M1Q16A3Q16A1Q17A3Q17AAcquisition VolumeSource: Jefferies, Company Data$168.7M01002003004005006007008001Q23A2Q23A3Q23A4Q23A1Q24A3Q24A4Q24A1Q25ANumber of leases (RHS)Exhibit 11 - 1Q25 Occupancy -10 bps Q/Q.74.4%85.0%60%65%70%75%80%85%90%Source: Jefferies, Company Data Exhibit 12 - Disposition Volumes vs. Cash Yields.5.8%10.4%7.0%$0.0M$10.0M$20.0M$30.0M$40.0M$50.0M$60.0M$70.0MSource: Jefferies, Company DataNNN:We maintain our FY25 AFFO/sh estimate at $3.41, +1.8% Y/Y. We lower our FY26 AFFO/shestimate -2c to $3.48 (+2.0%) on residual tenant credit issues. We maintain our DDM-derived PT of$42 for TSR of 6.2% and reaffirm our Hold rating.Exhibit 14 - NNN ABR vs. Number of Properties.$0M$200M$400M$600M$800M$1,000MABR (LHS)Source: Jefferies, Company DataExhibit 16 - Disposition Volumes vs. Cash Yields.8.4%$0M$10M$20M$30M$40M$50M$60M$70M$80M1Q15A3Q15A1Q16A3Q16A1Q17ASource: Jefferies, Company Data1Q24, 2Q24, and 4Q24 Cash Yields